IFTF Foresight Talk: Nestle’s Global Consumer Insight & Market Intelligence Mgr, Dimitri Gerebtzoff


good morning
good evening to some of you my name is max alder and I am a research director
here at the Institute for the future in our food futures lab and I will be
facilitating this foresight talks session today I’m so excited actually to
do this for many reasons one of which is that Demetri and I have interacted a few
times before and he’s a wealth of insightful information about foresight
about food so I can’t wait to hear what he has to say today our foresight talks
I’ll get into a little bit and run through the agenda for the day before I
do so I just want to say thank you all for joining this is a really really
wonderful program that the Institute has started to roll out this year and
Dimitri thank you in advance for your time your insights your knowledge your
expertise mica Dimitri runs global consumer insight and market intelligence
for Nestle and this is a really unique and wonderful opportunity to hear a
little bit about how someone inside one of the world’s largest food companies
thinks about the future and how he and his team track trends and come up with
new forecasts to drive business opportunities before we get into the
conversation I just want to talk a little bit about foresight talk this is
a new program that our learn team has been developing really trying to grow
foresight capabilities across our global community through creating new types of
enhanced connections mutual learning opportunities and really better
awareness of all of the community’s needs
we as many of you probably know have been doing a lot in our education
program trying to upskill different people around the world across
industries across geographies in four sites and we’ve realized that there is a
gap in the broader community and we’re trying to help create a platform that
enables that sort of shared learning a mutual connection so that we can all
help create better futures so thank you all for participating in this please let
us know what you think whether these are valuable and I’ll have my email at the
end of this please reach out we’re trying to build a global community
of foresight practitioners and this is one of many attempts at trying to create
that really robust foresight community I also just want to share quickly some
resources to help you all do your own futures thinking in your work and in
your lives one is that we at the Institute host foresight practitioner
trainings Dimitri went through one of them so I’m sure he has lots of ideas on
how they work and he can maybe talk a little bit about his experience there we
do them both in palo alto and around the world and you’ll see some upcoming dates
for our three day trainings these are really nuts-and-bolts immersions in our
foresight methodologies really wonderful wonderful some of my favorite things
that i do at the institute is help facilitate these trainings amazing
people from around the world like Dmitri come and spend three days together to
really dive deep into strategic foresight and we’ve also recently
launched a new design futures course which really focuses on not just how to
do strategic foresight but how to do immersive experience all foresight
really at the intersection of design futures and foresight we have we’ve our
first training completely sold out we’ve opened up another one in April of 2020
and there’s much more information about all these trainings on our website
finally one of the things that I’m most excited about is that I FTF is
developing an online course on Coursera and this will be the world’s first set
of massively open online courses that are grounded in futures thinking my
colleague Jane McGonigal has been leading the development of them and
really everyone across the Institute for the future has been involved we’re
really hoping that this creates a platform to expand futures thinking
beyond these walls and really to around the world and
democratizes it in a way that I don’t think it’s ever really been done before
so this is a really ambitious project and we’re so thrilled to have Corsairs
partnership on it we’ll send some more information to you all once it’s fully
launched and we have these foresight talks we do
them quite regularly and there are two upcoming foresight talks that I just
want to get on your radar I’ll remind everyone at the end of this conversation
but quickly the first is a Jane McGonigal a research director at the
Institute for the future is going to host a foresight talks to walk through
our futures thinking online courses on Coursera and that’s on November 14th
there’ll be a really wonderful way if anyone’s interested in exploring the
course or if anyone wants to try to roll out the course in their company or for
their organization or their community group doesn’t need to be just
professional this is also a wonderful approach to your personal life and
familial life so tune in to hear Jane talk about our training and then what
I’m really excited about is a conversation on December 11th with
someone at the u.s. Forest Service research and development department the
u.s. Forest Service actually has an internal futurist
and they’ve done wonderful and provocative work on topics such as the
future of forests in the United States so we’re gonna host a conversation to
see how governments can embed foresight into their work and interesting and
domains that maybe we often don’t think of so thinking about how to embed
foresight into how we manage forests globally I think is a really interesting
and provocative conversation and I’m sure that we’ll be talking about what
those insights and learnings might mean for other domains as well so put those
on your calendars and without further ado I’m just gonna jump into the agenda
for today like I said I’m so excited to hear Dimitri talk a little bit about his
work at Nestle and his team he has a little micro presentation that he’s
going to give so I will have Dimitri introduce himself he’ll start sharing
his screen and walk through a couple of slides of his work around the world
I will then follow up with a couple of questions but I’m sure you all are much
more interested in your questions not mine
so after I asked one or two follow-up questions we will open up the Khan
and the way to do that is I see many of you who are already conversing in the
chat box you all can talk and chat throughout
this presentation there there is also you’ll see a button in zoom for Q&A
please submit your questions that you’d like to ask the mitri in the Q&A and we
will filter those through and we will hopefully get to as many as we possibly
can I’m hoping that we can have about a good 25 minutes of questions from you
all we are recording this for you all to
watch and to share and for those who couldn’t make it they can watch this
afterwards so know that this is being recorded and also know that you are all
on mute so have your breakfast be loud do whatever you need to do we won’t hear
you but also if you ask a question we won’t hear you so please submit
questions through the Q&A button without I guess further ado Dimitri thank you
again so much for joining us I’m so excited to hear what you have to share
with us all today could you share your screen and start to talk a little bit
about who you are I would love to hear a little bit before you jump into your
presentation about how you ended up at Nestle doing this kind of work and I
know you have a short presentation and we’ll follow up with some questions
afterwards very good so hi everyone my name is
Demetria hats-off I’m the global consumer insight and market intelligence
manager at Nestle and basically so how I got to Nestle is a bit of an interesting
route I don’t have a standard CV which quite a few other people have so i
started by looking or researching animal behavior and i was focusing on memory
formation and so i studied actually biology and ethology
which is behavior science and looking at animal behavior and the impact of
drugs on side effects in animals and then I moved to the same effects on
autistic children and I work for Novartis for my industry for a few years
and after that I moved actually to a Dutch company which is called Aldous and
they are creating tools and systems and software hardware to observe behavior so
I’ve always been into understanding interaction between objects or things
and animals or humans and my would say my the key things which I’m working on
is usually nonverbal behavior more than verbal behavior so what are the people
doing more than what they are saying so while being in this company I I was a
branch of his manager for France Belgium and Switzerland so I was developing the
hallmark there and one of my tea customer was Nestle so I installed at
Nestle several consumer research labs which we’re facilities to observe
consumer behaviors with cameras software to analyze automatically or manually
their behaviors and so that was a natural jump at certain points so ten
years ago I jumped onto Nestle and I worked for four and a half years at the
NRC which is the Nestle research center core Research Center in Lausanne and
then I moved to the food category five years ago so I’m working now for the
food category five years ago started really in consumer insight for product
launches so really understanding the ins and outs of the the needs of consumers
and tensions for concept development and product developments and then moving up
and up to the role I have right now which is a more strategic role I would
say and so in the role I’m playing right now is really the idea for me to
understand globally so worldwide and we usually split the world in three main
zones but understand worldwide trends related to
food and their impact on our strategy both in terms of category strategy and
in terms of brand strategies so that’s in a nutshell what I’m doing the food
category at Nestle is a 10 billion category roughly so or even a bit more
so it’s not a very small business it’s quite a significant business at Nestle
and so when you take decisions to move to certain directions within the 10
billion business you want to be kind of pretty sure that’s of what you’re doing
before investing because yeah Nestle is quite large quite big and so on one side
we have some power and some force to move in directions on the other side
it’s also seen as a kind of a big giant slow Enterprise so we need also to
predict the future early enough to be able to move these forces to the right
directions so yeah and so now I’m going to focus a little bit more on how we
sense the future and I welcome all of you to the future of food at Nestle
that’s how we call all the work we are doing around predicting or thinking
about the future and the impact of these future – – Nestle first of all one of
the things which everybody knows but which is really important for us is we
see the the food has exploded all over the place and I am sure that you all see
that it’s something which we hear often when we hear talks and etc it’s
exploding on all of them all over the place so initially we can see that at
the threat because basically you have so many players popping up and gaining
market shares and inventing new things which we don’t think about etc on the
other hand we can see all of these booming elements as really opportunities
opportunities to move to new categories to new channels
and you have Amazon fresh over there to new ways of consumption from consumers
Street foods for example is moving into really new directions entering in the
homes of consumers a blurring of the different channels from what you order
online eat at home order outside or go and shop eat outside
and etc all of that environment is changing quite fast and my role and and
basically when we talk to the markets and I have to deal with roughly 92
hundred different markets around the world when I talk to the markets the
markets will all say my market is super different to all the other ones my
consumers are very different to all the other ones we need to nurture these
local elements which are so important and I fully agree with them my role is
also at one point you try to understand where are the similarities where are
groups of consumers or cohorts of consumers going and what is happening Oh
food is pop food is there it’s all over the place and what do we do with it so
my role then is and together with with our colleagues in the same Department
what we are doing is really to look into what are the trends what is happening
and we have different ways to look at that and I’ve just highlighted a few
elements here when I talk about trends it’s on one side the food-related trends
we’re really dealing with cuisines with ingredients with products and etc but
it’s also all the other aspects which we are looking for as an example regional
elements or labels claims what is happening also in terms of companies so
startups all and regulation obviously which is impacting heavily what we are
allowed not allowed so the frame in which we can
work on all of that is really shaping the way we are moving forward and
obviously the most important which you see on the top right corner here our
consumers that’s the most important element for us so what we really want to
understand is how are consumers living or organized and and and dealing with
all these changes all this word all this world and what is happening around us
the good elements the positive elements which they are picking the negative
elements which they want to avoid or getting away from and our role or my
role is then to look into all these and then to try to make sense of that and
the most importantly to lend it to really business opportunities well tell
me what you eat and I will tell you who you are so that’s what we try to
understand really what consumers are eating and then to to be able actually
to create clusters of consumers clusters of trans clusters of elements and then
study these elements in the deep manner so in the role I’m in and together with
my colleague we try to focus on three different aspects to sense the future
and to really focus on trends the first one is transversely and I already said a
few words around that but basically what we want to do is really to deliver four
sides so thoughts about how where the world is going in the future and then
understand the impact of these possible futures on our business so that’s the
first aspect and the different elements we which we try to understand is
obviously cuisines so what is happening around the world in different cuisines
because cuisines are impacting the food that consumers are exposed to and eating
and both out the form and in home then ingredients so individual components
superfoods goji berries and all of these elements which we see flying around we
try to understand and we try to understand them from an
ingredients point of view but also from a sourcing point of view is it
sustainable not sustainable what is the whole value chain and obviously also
from a culinary point of view so the taste the texture the integration with
other elements the how how all of that works together and we also try to
understand the consumption habits of consumers so how often do they eat at
home what do they eat what kind of utensils are they using and
all of that across the world and you can guess that a kitchen in Guatemala will
look very different from a kitchen in Germany or in Malaysia or in Indonesia
and so while I say that it also means that the things we are looking at may
not have a direct connection to a food or may have a broader connection to food
but we understand that they might have an impact on food as an example we look
at the size of kitchen in the world because the size of kitchen means how
much space I have to to cook or to prepare stuff and etc so that’s also an
important element and so all of these elements we try to look for and to to
understand then the second aspect is landing this element in a strategic
framework and here that’s probably the most difficult part scouting or looking
for trends is quite easy with what we have today all the information actually
what is difficult is to make a selection among all what we have available there
are so many reports so many tools available to automatically gather data
but the amount of information you can get is is very easy then landing that
information what we do is we create usually a framework in which will have
several macro trend then set trends and micro trend to allow us to focus on the
things which we feel are the most interesting for us and I will explain in
a second we do that and then also to be able to
prioritize the trends we want to really focus on and we do do that in a rolling
way to make sure that we don’t live with the same trend over for several years
and then we end up understanding that it’s not anymore
interesting so these strategic landing is very important and the third aspect
is all our network within and outside of Nestle so I have counterparts which do
the same piece of work than I do in other Nestle categories in other markets
within my category and also in other entities outside of Nestle and we have
very good very regular meetings and interactions to make sure sure that we
stay connected with the outside world and with what is happening and obviously
we have also networks of consumers which we have a lot of interaction with so our
focus in all of that is to make sure that whatever trends we look for and
because we honestly we are a company which needs to make money our key focus
is how can we bring frequency and volume in the product we are creating to make
sure that the consumers will go for them so we are focusing on dishes which
consumers are eating often we are focusing on food which the consumer are
eating often and etc we will hardly ever even if we look for the trends on more
niche elements in the end what we want is to landed in a business proposition
which makes sense at the broad scale we cannot develop things which will only
suit a very minor number of consumers in only a few countries we really need
these scale aspects so how we do that drop assumption listen to signals and
frame actions so we have a ecosystem of different tools which we are using from
early trance counting then to trance analysis we have digital platforms which
we are looking for we have even also open innovation
platform so with interaction with the external world as I was saying we have a
scientific community looking at more the scientific and technological trends we
look also for innovation venture funds so which are the venture capitals
putting their bets and their money on which startups so we have systems to
scout all of that and we have our network as I was saying and all of these
insights help us to understand where our trends going what are the things which
are happening and at one point what we do with these elements is we set down
and we generate scenarios or assumptions we think that the world is going to go
in that direction and we have identified four major directions in which nestle
overall wants to go and this is available to the outside world so it’s
around authentic flavors authentic food the second one is around healthy
lifestyle so healthy food and the third one is around experiences so really
experiencing different types of foods different types of cuisines and etc the
last one which we are working a lot at the moment on is on sustainability
elements obviously and so sustainability is key for us and we are tracking also
that’s but we are tracking that in the frame of what we are doing within within
food so I’m not dealing for example with the plastic elements as long as it’s
outside of the food environment so I prefer to have a kind of holistic view
so I’m not the one who is going to look at technological improvements around
individual plastic components are more the one going to look for what are the
consumers thinking about plastic how are they evolving what are the implications
for the business for each of our categories for our brands where our
brands positioned around plastic and etc so that’s the the way we move forward
then I was explaining that we try to learn these elements into a strategic
and business opportunity and we look at two things on one side we look at the
attractiveness and on the other side we look at the ability to win so attractive
attractiveness is how relevant it is to consumers to markets so to specific
geographies how what are the barriers which block us from rolling this trend
out or with which blocks these trends from moving forward so that can be also
independent of Nestle overall what are the things which block it is it more the
consumers are on not understanding because it’s too scientific
is it more a technological barrier at the moment is it more a willingness to
go for it or etc an ability to win will be more what are the manifestations
which we already see on the markets what is our and is the ability to
differentiate from competition do we have here things which we can put
forwards and obviously is it aligned with our strategy and our strategy at
Nestle globally so here we want to make sure that whatever we go for or we
develop fit with our commitments which Nestle has made fit with our food
strategy and etc so we look at these different elements and we have a system
or a grater to rank all the trends or to give points to all the trends according
to these different topics and what we do with it is then we look at the score for
each of the trend but also where does the trend land in these different
aspects all these different elements and then what we want to focus on is the
tipping point and the tipping point is when do we feel the trend is mature
enough that it’s interesting for Nestle to enter but not mature too much that it
became mainstream or too many of our competitors already entered and etc and
when I talk about teachers is not only the big players it
can be also small players as I was explaining at the beginning beginning of
my talk small players moves fast nowadays can gain market share quite
fast so we need to understand and this tipping point is is really moving or
changing depending on the category depending on the brand depending on the
trends so we we are we really need to focus on understanding these different
elements how they move between each other so the maturity of consumers the
maturity of Technology the maturity of the fit to our own estate strategy etc
we and with that grid and with that tool we can understand depending on the
scenario we want to push forward how is that tipping point moving is it
something we need to really deal with today not right now because otherwise
because the technology is ready for example or do we need to move it a
little bit further down the road and with that it allows us to prioritize the
different trends but prioritize them based on our assets based on the Nestle
strategy but also based on the the consumer willingness and my role
actually is not to tell my strategic partner we need to go there it’s more to
initiate discussion so I will tell them ok these are the different options which
we see this option is good if we do this and that this other option is better if
we do these other things this third option if we really want to push that
technology forward that’s the best option and then I leave it to them or
it’s an interactive discussion between all of these people so we really do
along the year frequent workshops and group discussions to really think about
the implication of that and then the brand manager will say oh I want to push
my brand forward so we should go for that but the technological person will
say no no no no no the technology is not yet ready if we do it right now we will
shoot in our own foot because we will not be able to sell our proposition
which is enough competitive to really bring for example the price to a reason
level first and etc so I bring the frame and I look at these different people
then confronting their views and with that we define them where do we want to
go all together so that’s the way we go from strategy to execution so when we
have defined to finalize when we have defined what we want to go for and done
the priorities we do usually what I call a sizing and business opportunity so
within that frame of a trend we look for what are our business opportunities so
where do we feel in terms of which consumer group which technology are we
going to use for which etc and with these elements it allows us to go from
the global trend which we see to our own business opportunity and then to size
them and here we have different tools so we use all kind of different tools to
size the category to size the frequency at which the consumers use or each
similar product to size our technological advantage and etc and then
eventually it brings up to a certain value which we then use in order to
understand is it something we want to go for or is it at the moment too small and
then we prefer to wait or is it something we don’t want to go at all at
the moment so that’s a little bit how we do that and then we go to the execution
which is then a more standard approach ideation concept prototyping interaction
with consumers and then and then products development and product
launches or product when I took product its product services apps at cetera so
it can cover the whole range of things we can do overall then just as an
example if you slide a few pictures to show you that it’s not something we do
exclusively at the desk it’s also something we do in a very dynamic way
going out experiencing cuisines that’s the nice part of my job being able to
try a lot of different foods discussing with our
chefs so we have a group of experienced chefs coming really
so cooks who expose us to different cuisines tell us what are the
possibilities and etc and then sharing with our networks to be able to go to
real consumers and with real consumers to be able to understand what are the
tensions what do they really want bring that back with in this way and then
explore the different scenarios which we are doing so that’s about it for me I’d
like to finish with a nice quote of Jamie Oliver I’ll give you a few seconds
to read and I open the directory to any questions you would have amazing thanks
Dimitri so much and I love the Jamie Oliver quotes there is certainly always
something new and amazing to learn about food we have a bunch of really great
questions that are emerging and I’ll let people submit some more and I’ll just
ask one right now and then we’ll all turn to sharing some from those who are
tuning in and the question that I’m really interested in your background in
biology and ethology and maybe to go to begin our questions back at the
beginning you your work at Nestle clearly is not just about studying
behavior although I feel like a lot of forecast work involves understanding
shifts in how humans behave but it also is likely about how to shape human
behavior and so I’m wondering a lot of what we’ve just heard is very much about
tracking monitoring understanding directions of change and I want to know
to what extent is your work about keeping your ear to the ground and
sensing and anticipating the future of food and to what extent does your work
really about shaping a different future of food and how do you balance those two
that’s a very good question of thanks to ask the ambition would be obviously or not
the ambition I think I feel that it’s a bit you topic to
think that we can shape a lot the future of consumers so on one side we are
sensing a lot of information the shaping the future for me goes more towards what
what are the products we can offer to consumers to answer attention and that’s
the way I feel that if we are the first ones to be able to identify clearly what
a major attention consumers have be it’s in a very poor country where consumers
have really difficulties in getting just a simple food on the plate all the way
to more mature or more advanced countries where they explore all kind of
different food from around the world our role is more to understand core
tensions the consumers have and then to try to solve them and I perceive that if
we manage to solve really strong tensions with consumers then we can
shape basically or-or-or en the way they are going to change their behaviors but
that we I don’t feel that and I don’t know how we could basically create a new
product because it’s it’s all about food in the end so we are creating creating
products around food it’s not like inventing a new technology or digital
technology or something which will give you a third arm and bringing something
brand new it’s all about food so on the other hand if we manage really to create
and I can take her and I back in the days when when Maggie created the cube
the cube changed the life of millions of people because it was 45 and so because
of these focus fortification in vitamins in iron and etc a lot of consumers have
changed drastically their behaviors and and
using the the Maggi cube in their in their daily routine which they were not
doing and even changing the way they are cooking the way they are preparing the
food the number of times they are cooking per day because they have that
available so I feel it goes more in that direction understanding clearly and
really deeply and that requires a lot of work the consumer tension answering to
that and that changes the the behavior yeah yeah I love that answer I’m gonna
turn to some questions that have been submitted and there’s actually there’s a
cluster of questions that I think are quite interesting and worth exploring
around this notion of a tipping point yeah
and so from what I’m reading from people it I think we would love to hear a
little bit more about both the criteria that you determine when a sort of
tipping point has been reached what that threshold is and how you determine it
and then maybe a follow up to this sort of initial question that I asked is what
what role do you all think that you play in creating those tipping points though
certainly it’s one thing to see all the dominoes and see that there are oh my
gosh aligned and ready to be pushed and then it’s a totally other thing to
figure out how and when you might push them to cascade the reaction so how do
you measure track tipping points and what are the signals that you all see
that prove to you that a tipping point has been reached so first of all I’ll be
very transparent if only I had a precise and final answer about you we’re doing
first of all I will not be there I would have probably my own company second miss
Lee would be in a better shape than it is right now so we are doing very good
in some aspect but not so good in others so we would be fantastic everywhere so
first of all it’s not a precise science sometimes it works
times or often we fail and that’s also why although I’m dealing with very
strategic element I’m also part of R&D because we fail often and we succeed
rarely so these science of identifying tipping
points and and basically bringing different curves together to understand
where they merge and where we want to go it’s definitely not an exact science and
so that’s the warning I wanted to give nonetheless what we are doing is first
of all we are looking at consumers so we have a lot of tools to look at online
social media discussions which allow us to understand from just simple words
which we input in these systems what is the amount of generated conversations
around these elements so that’s one thing which we can track and if that
element goes higher than a certain points then we move it to something we
track more often or we move it to the next level so that could be one of the
first levels on the other hand we also look and we always try to balance these
two we also look at what’s happening out of home so we look at what’s happening
in restaurants so high-end the restaurant but also men’s or limited
service restaurants full-service restaurant etc even small tapas bars so
we Scout not only big chains but we have also people who go on a regular basis
and look what’s happening in smaller places we work with agencies who do that
and the idea here is to not only look from a consumer point of view but look
from the outside world so the chef’s who master their culinary expertise and look
at what are they bringing in so and if we see the same ingredients or the same
technique or the same dishes popping up suddenly in different places around the
world it doesn’t need to be at one place it can be at different places then it
will trigger also our our selves to track more of that then we
look at technologies then we look at a net cetera so we have different
indicators and when the indicators reaches a certain level then we look
more closely or we start bringing these different indicators together so if
suddenly I see a shelf looking at a specific barrier or a specific
ingredient for quite some time or I see several chefs doing that I will input
that same element into the other systems to see what’s happening do we see it
also as well or it has not yet reached a certain level and why also maybe it’s a
different term used in different place at cetera and then when we see these
different elements reaching a certain level together at the same time then
that’s where we start to have the discussion about business opportunity
and then the tipping point is about where are our competitors around the
world are they also looking at that what are the products which have been already
lounged what are the number of startups which already have started really
looking into that particular trend where is our technology but also competitive
technologies going forward in that direction and then it’s about bringing
all these aspect together and having a discussion so the tipping point is not
something only a graph is giving and then as soon as it’s reached a certain
level as a woo tipping point and I take it it’s more about bringing these
different elements to the table and saying okay these are this is the
environment we see do you feel we should bring the tipping point forward because
it will give a clear Nestle advantage or do we move that lever a little bit
backward or do we leave that lever completely out and so and we do that
discussion with each an individual trend and also with each and individual early
signal which we see starting to to become more interesting for us so the
tipping point is really very much discussion around different stakeholders
and to take a decision based on the criteria I shared earlier
so these prioritization criteria but that so it’s a lot of quantitative data
which feed into a qualitative discussion in the end yes now I love that and
that’s such a great articulation of both the science and the art of sense making
and foresight so that’s a wonderful answer let’s talk a little bit about
maybe one domain that we might be seeing reaching a tipping points there were a
lot of questions about meat alternatives on the Q&A chat so how do you see the
trend of plant-based foods or meat free burgers what do you think about
impossible foods all of these sort of I hate to call them alternative proteins
because now has already reached the tipping point quite some time ago if you
look at how the Nestle investments together with McDonald’s and Burger King
and etc in the incredible burger we have a full range of god legume ace the brand
food and etc so the tipping point was I would say three four years ago that’s
where we started to initiate all our technological development because as you
can imagine it’s not within half a year that we can develop a full line in the
factory and understand exactly where we want to go and etc sometimes we can go
faster by doing Co manufacturing or merge and acquisition in other cases
when we really want to develop a competitive advantage that’s where we
really need to invest our time money and we really need to be early enough to
identify that tipping point so that tipping point went already quite some
years ago looking and it came from agriculture I would say when we
identified already like 20 years ago that if we move forward in the same way
simply the number of the number of field occurs needed to feed the population
with cows that collapsed and collided very heavily very drastically very soon
and that’s where we started to look for meat alternatives and so I will not
disclose too much information but I can tell you that now
meat alternatives or alternative proteins that’s the man that has gone
from a micro trends for five or ten years ago to accept rent to now a macro
trend so we have it really at the high level and now we look for very much more
fine-grained details around sub components within there for the future
so is the future going for insects or is the future going for fish alternative
which we see popping at the moment or is the future going for other alternatives
so we are really now going even one level down is the future more technology
or more we you see all these lab created means or is the future still being more
natural products and so we are exploring all the scenario based on the element
side so I explained to you earlier to identify among all of them beyond simple
creating burger patties and and really nice by the way we just warm some
competition against all the other burgers with our incredible burgers so I
can I think we can be quite proud there as being the most tasty and the most
natural the the the tasty burger among all the competitors at the moment so we
are going in the right direction with our transcoding foresight and with also
understanding all the sensory elements which are required across all the
different consumers because as you can imagine you have consumers who want
really something which mimics totally meat but you have other consumers who
don’t want that at all they are already flexitarian or vegetarian they are not
interested in something which is bleeding and looking like me they are
interesting which something which provides them with really good natural
proteins so and an N and that’s only to split like I I told you
our system is probably split in 15 18 different types of sub components within
that environment I love that and it’s a really helpful way of better
understanding a tipping point when you actually put a historical example into
context and understand how you saw that and how it’s changed I have a couple
other and maybe just to finish on that the tipping point now because milt
alternative if the tipping point when I passed that now we are recreating four
five or six sub tipping points so now we understand that meat-free alternative it
will go that way we are sure and that will be the future now within that
future what are the different options we have and we create new tipping points
for these different futures then we track them and then we have again these
discussions do we want to push that you think go forward or backwards so it’s
not something the tipping point is done we move on and we go for something else
it’s always something which like a tree you know where you start down there then
you move to the next level the next level evolves you choose one route which
is this one and that rule then evolves into five new routes with five new
tipping points so you choose this one and etc so that’s how how we work on
this constant flow it’s a beautiful analogy that’s really
helpful because so I guess we all just heard it here Nestle the future is
meat-free that’s tipping points already happened then the question is is the
future based on recombinant protein synthesis is it crickets
exactly I would not say the future is meat free I would say the future is
really good meat on the far less regular basis so nurturing that like caviar so
that will become really a more high-end appreciated product in a far smaller
quantity but I still feel if we stay there and I love me so but we will
really move towards far more sustainable solutions so fair enough I appreciate
that nuance you’re absolutely right I know we only have a few minutes left and
then we have a few concluding remarks I want to ask you one maybe one last
question and I we have a bunch of questions that we’ll just collect and
we’ll maybe share with you Dimitri to get your thoughts after we can share
with the group but there was a really great question that grounds all of this
work and it’s kind of a mash up of of – one is I want to ask how you measure
success and how you think of success because so much of forecasting in
general is looking out to possible futures and being comfortable being
wrong a lot because we’re not trying to optimize for accuracy at least the work
that we do at the Institute is trying to be internally consistent but provocative
and insightful and you can be wrong and be insightful in really interesting ways
so how do you measure success and at the same time there was a question really
about just like how do you keep on going how do you keep your team and yourself
motivated because the future is changing so quickly and we’re often so wrong and
these systems are so complex and confusing it’s really hard to maintain
this sort of urgent sense of optimism that at least we embody at the Institute
or maybe it’s business growth and strategy so how do you maintain a heavy
level of motivation to do this important work and then how do you measure your
success in in that yeah so for the how we do we keep the team motivated I think
I could go here yeah that would give the perfect answer I don’t think we really
need to be motivated look at the world outside look at the possibilities look
at the how evolutions how its evolving they are so many directions we can scout
go we can look for from pure technological systems virtual reality
all the way down to super interesting solution I just heard not so long ago a
startup created a system where with a slingshot you throw a GoPro camera in
the air above a field and they do that in South Africa
somewhere in very poor country is they throw it the data is automatically sent
to a super calculator which provides back just by throwing that webcam in the
air provides back information around what is the soul composed of what type
of crop they should grow at which time and and then taking also into account
trends so it will tell these people do you need to grow crops which are
becoming trendy because it will grow or so their businesses and etc so it goes
in all the direction in so many ways that I mean I don’t need to you to keep
the team excited and and because we are working in food at Nestle I’m working on
one day on one hour on pizza the next hour on chill dough the next hour on
spice mix the next hour on soup the next one on the bullion’s the next one on
table sauce is ketchup mayonnaise etc etc so it’s a broad array of
different possibilities which is super interesting and super exciting I love my
job then for you or the question which was
more around how do we measure success it’s a it’s a really good one because we
always fight for that it’s not easy on one side
Nestle being a big cooperation you need to have tangible objectives at the end
of the year to measure what you have done that surgery and how successful you
where and on the other side I’m working in super 4 side so really way at the
beginning of the whole product development meaning that whatever I do
may 4 2011 so on one side we met measure success still by looking at products on
the markets so that’s one of the things very tangible sales data because that
definitely that’s the way we predicted the the in
the past the way we predicted the future which is today where we successful so we
also look back at the data we we used in the past so that’s one thing on the
other side and I’m very grateful for that we have quite some freedom to fail
so to be able to identify things which will not go forward so success is for
example more around when we generate a framework has it been shared broadly
within Nestle hasn’t been used broadly strategically so do all the people who
can use the the tools we create or the framework around trends how many peoples
are aware of it using it is it really then supporting in the strategic
discussions is it supporting the strategic outcome so and it’s very
simple if a category lead is organizing a workshop where they look at the
pipeline is the future of food trends part of the discussion or not
so because the idea is we want to create a framework and to provide as much
insight and information to as many people within Nestle and it’s possible
that everybody uses the same frame so that we come to the same conclusion with
the same data and so that we move together in the same direction in the
end the the work of the markets and at the zone level is more to look at the specificities of the markets but then
within the frame we set so that we push the same forces forward so that’s part
of where we measure success is also around the network as I was saying
around the strategy and then around the trends themselves so by also looking at
competition are they looking at the same things than us so at our competitive
advantage I would say here did we manage to identify things before the others and
move them so forward to a certain level where we feel
the other Sunday yet I love I really love this notion of a clarity of
direction and creating a community to move forward in that direction being
flexible and how that looks very clear on where you’re going
Dimitri this has been so wonderful thank you all for joining this conversation I
really really really appreciate it I have shared both my email and
Dimitri’s email I know that there were a lot of really good questions that
unfortunately just didn’t have time to get to we will be reviewing those please
come to our future foresight talks webinars we are doing this to build this
community it is for you all not for us so please take advantage of these talks
share them with your colleagues and your friends sign up for them and please
reach out to us and let us know how we can make them more helpful and impactful
and insightful for you all in your foresight practices
Dimitri maybe if I have one thing attend the ifgf training I’m not paid by a FTF
I have participated to that training for me the not only it provides really
insightful tools and methods to think about scenario but it really helped a
lot with the community which is around ifts so we still have our whatsapp group
from the ITF and we still communicate every other day so sharing trends what’s
happening at cetera and because it’s such a wide range of people from so many
different part of the world and from so many different type of work you were
talking about the forest in in the in the USO that’s exactly what it is and it
provides really super insightful information so all of that together that
was really really it is a really really interesting training amazing right yeah
I couldn’t have said it better myself so thank you thank you all we’ll be sharing
this recording and Dimitri thank you for your work on the future of food we
presume when it come thank you for hosting me of course talk
to you all soon yes bye bye everyone

Betty Liu on market impacts from the coronavirus outbreak | Money in :60 | GZERO Media


I’m Betty Liu with your Money In 60 Seconds. So, the impact of the virus has pretty much been felt in the global markets. We’re now back up to around record territory, erasing most of the losses. Initially when US officials reported the second virus outbreak in the US, the markets fell. And in fact, the S&P fell the most in three months. So, in the early 2000s, a SARS outbreak actually hit the markets even more. We saw the S&P fall 13 percent based on the outbreak. But economists say it’s really not an apples to apples comparison because at the time when SARS was happening, we were in a very different economic time. That’s your Money In 60 Seconds.

Box Office – Birds of Prey, Mulan, Black Widow, Wonder Woman 1984


in the wake of birds of praise
box-office implosion there has been a very unfortunate take away from fans and
haters alike and that’s that men don’t want to see
female led action movies and that women alone aren’t a strong enough audience to
support blockbuster movies I think they’re coming from people just being
incredibly disappointed in having an emotional over response to birds of prey
failing and not looking at the obvious reasons that have failed and that also I
think people are trying to scare and guilt people into seeing in its second
weekend I see a lot of shady tactics for trying to get the birds of prey box
office numbers up but again I broke down birds of prey in my box office report
this week there’s a link down below in the video description as to why it
didn’t work out so many reasons but here we’re gonna talk about female led action
movies in general where they’ve you know you know why how they need to be
constructed to work and what’s gonna happen the rest of this year because
it’s a big year for female led blockbusters let’s hope all right so now
first glance you might think right that these statements are correct right
because birds of prey is the latest female action flick to underperform or
downright fail at the box office and it would seem to be part of a disturbing
disappointing trend if you were just looking at it from the surface or not
taking even a few seconds to think about it alright because it’s a very obvious
and honest answers to what the problem is and that’s these films may be all
made the exact same mistake and that they failed to have strong supporting
male characters now I’m sure that many of you are appalled by that statement
and furiously typing down below why should female lead films need to
cater to men well male led films have been doing that since the beginning of
Hollywood because no single demographic can deliver blockbuster sized box-office
women of course can’t deliver on their own a blockbuster because they’re just
simply aren’t enough of them just like only men can’t deliver a buck a strong
box of blockbuster box office either and on that note every
single major franchise has had strong female characters in each movie
even bond has this Vaughn girls yet that is beginning to seem dated to audiences
and has is having an impact on the box office and now as Hollywood tries to
flip the script and have female characters drive these movies you need
to flip the entire formula I don’t see how people don’t understand something
that’s so obvious you need to flip the entire formula and have strong
supporting roles for men so they feel included just as for again not just
decades since Hollywood began female supporting roles in the past
strong female supporting roles have made women feel included now flipping the
whole script the whole formula is why trailblazing female life franchises like
alien and Hunger Games worked they had strong male supporting characters
especially in the first two alien movies which were the most successful and then
more recently Wonder Woman Captain Marvel and even the new Star Wars
trilogy did the same very important there are of course exceptions to
everything and here you have Lord of the Rings which has almost no female
characters it was very successful ah that’s almost like a fantasy war movie
though so I think that kind of works for that reason and then also the recent
Joker film Joker really didn’t have strong female roles either even though
they did try to play up Zazi beats and his mother not really in the movie but I
think Joker transcended that because of the mythology and the mental illness and
its larger message you know in terms of it really resonated with a lot of people
across the globe we saw it multiple times Dobby helped push it into the
billion dollar club and then I’m with all women films right now the first sex
in the city was a pop culture moment so it did particularly well and then you
have Kill Bill which was generally well-received perhaps due to Quentin
Tarantino’s very strong male energy behind the camera even though he well
sometimes he appears on on screen but he has such a strong presence in his movies
no matter what even when he’s not on screen although I have to add Kill Bill
was very low at the box-office very very low like that was like before I think
people pay close attention to box-office as they do now and Kill Bill couldn’t
even get to a hundred million the century mark which is really a mark that
shows a movie has even done moderately well at the box
office domestically now as I said 2020 is supposed to be a big year for women
in front of and behind the camera when it comes to blockbuster films Ana’s
birds-of-prey kicks things off with a big disappointment many are wondering
and are fearful if the whole damn year is going to be that big of a bummer so
let’s take a look and remember this is a business and the best thing in Hollywood
can do for these female led movies is to have them be successes
alright so Mulan like birds of prey Mulan is expected to have a much smaller
debut than other entries in its same franchise and I’d like to point out that
both those films have very strong male and female characters and on that note
Mulan has made many of the same mistakes that birds-of-prey has made and while
the original animated film featured strong supporting male characters and
not just strong supporting male characters but big male energy and I’d
like to point out they did not overshadow Mulan but both li Shang and
wushu have been cut from the live-action movie now to be fair Donnie freakin Yin
is in this new movie he’s fantastic and he’s a huge superstar she still has a
love interest this time a fellow soldier the same level as her not not above her
like Shang was and then yowling and chin Poe also returned but none of them have
been played up in the trailers really only Donnie Yen has made kind of an
appearance the rest of them really not at all
the new love interest did get a poster to his credit he looks super cool but
you know Disney has already released the final trailer for this movie so maybe
they could do some TV spots to play these characters up so they don’t have
the same problems at the box office the birds of prey I had I don’t know why
they would hide these characters they’re so great now next up Black Widow this
film has strong male supporting characters in place creatively it did
the work but marketing wise it’s not doing the work right they have not
really advertised them at all sure Scarlett Johansson Florence Pugh and
Rachel Weitz all look very cool in this new movie but David Harbor is a fan
favorite and he’s been in the trailers but not as much as I think he should be
especially post birds-of-prey he is a fan favorite actor and he’s playing a
very cool and interest character russia’s version of captain
america i can’t believe they’re doing red sun first some degree a taskmaster
isn’t getting nearly the spotlight that he should despite intense interest from
the fan base now some of you think taskmaster is actually rachel whites but
it’s OT fag manly and he hasn’t been shown at the trailers at all even as the
other character he’s playing to kind of I think throw you off right he was a
Comic Con it’s not a secret that he’s in the movie why isn’t even put in the
trailers Ray Winstone and William Hurt are also in the film and they should be
played up as well Black Widow has probably at least one
more trailer left to go and hopefully they fix this marketing mistake it has a
bit of a cushion that it’s part of the MCU but you don’t want to be one of the
ant-man’s of the MCU right it would be an ant-man and the wasp you want sure
that Black Widow needs to be another Captain Marvel which means it needs to
get into a billion dollar club or at least pretty darn close Wonder Woman
1984 this movie is in excellent shape just as the first one was thanks to
Chris Pines Steve Trevor and patty Jenkins and Warner Brothers know how
important it is as they brought him back from the dead for the sequel my dad
loved Wonder Woman not just because of Galka doubt he thought she was wonderful
but he really liked Pines Steve Trevor he could really relate to him and after
that movie he in fact became a huge Chris Pine fan watch I am I am I am the
knight from Jenkins and pine pine starring it’s very very good and my
family watched it because my dad loves Chris Pine so much from that movie and
you know and we were rewarded as they said it’s very good but I do not
underestimate with Chris Pine brought to that first film and I what I believe
he’ll bring to the second as well pines Trevor is truly Wonder Woman’s Lois Lane
but even better as he gets to be in on the action and this dynamic make no
mistake about it is what helps Wonder Woman stay at the front of the pack
success wise Pedro Pascal is also in one room in 1984 but I think you can’t just
it would be very bad if they only up the only strong male character in the movie
was the villain because that’s the mistake birds of prey mate I think birds
of prey felt and had male representation but it wasn’t it made them all the bad
guys now Eternals I’m including this film because it has an indie female
director and many strong female characters
but as you can see from this cast lineup and has the kind of balanced cast that
would make Thanos proud right it’s perfectly balanced dissolve things
should be and we’re talking not just in terms of gender but also ethnicity and
as Feige has promised sexuality well see how the movie does but from a business
perspective it’s beautifully constructed and then finally one division o fans are
chomping at the bit for this Disney Plus series or Elizabeth Olsen’s Wanda will
finally get to be front and center and her most iconic comic book story will
finally be adapted for the small screen will also seek Monica Rambeau all grown
up very also very well known Marvel character
well kat dennings returns to the MCU and kathryn hahn is going to be in the cast
and is rumored to be playing Agatha Harkness and immortal which cool
character but again Paul Bettany’s vision is also front and center he’s in
the freaking title well Randall Park also returns we haven’t gotten a full
trailer for that and I’m sure they will play up all of those characters Wanda
envisions twin boys are also set to debut wicked one of the most famous
LGBTQ characters in comics he has powers similar to his mother and that his twin
brother speed who of course takes after Wanda’s dear departed our departed
brother Pietro so it would seem I think that Milan isn’t going to similarly
underperform to birds of prey unless they can fix the optics on that because
it’s shame because it does seem to be in the film itself and of course the
relationship with her father I think that’s all really beautiful but they
they’re not playing up enough I think Black Widow is in some danger we’ll see
but I think wonderful in 1984 eternals and Waterman Wanda vision are all in
very good shape business-wise and I think you’re poised to do much better or
it just do well at all at the box office after birds of prey bombed so what do
you think share your thoughts down below subscribe today and of course as always
you can check out some more videos right now

Stock Market and Political Predictions for 2020 (w/ Jason Trennert & Vincent Catalano)


VINCENT CATALANO: Jason, welcome to Real Vision. JASON TRENNERT: Thank you for having me. VINCENT CATALANO: Tell us a little bit about
Strategas, besides the fact of the name, and get into the definition that came from it,
Strategas is what? JASON TRENNERT: Yeah, so Strategas. We’re a research firm that focuses on macro-economic
research, economics, policy, technical analysis, fixed income strategy, and it’s also a broker
dealer. In addition to research analysts, we also
have sales traders, and institutional salesman. Basically what we do is we write reports on
these big picture things. We publish them and then we travel around
the country and the world to tell institutional investors what we’re thinking. VINCENT CATALANO: That’s fantastic. You are, your role is? JASON TRENNERT: I’m the chairman of the company
and also the chief investment strategist. I mainly focused on the equity markets, but
try to also pull everything together. VINCENT CATALANO: One of the founders? JASON TRENNERT: One of the founders, that’s
right. I started in 2006. I had worked at Heiman for about 15 years
at a place called ISI Group from ’91 to 2006. Then my partners Nick Bohnsack, and Don Rissmiller,
they joined me and we started Strategas in 2006. VINCENT CATALANO: That’s fabulous. Want to start off talking about the markets,
overall, the equity markets. One of the things that stood out to me and
key reason to discuss with you today is earlier in this year on CNBC, one of the hosts there
was pressing you and Rich Bernstein. Where’s the market going to go? What’s the price going to be at? Where are we going to end up? That thing and Rich deferred, demurred. You said, “All right, I’ll give you a–“,
and you gave a number. The number was, I think for the S&P, which
was at the time around 2600 or something like that, you said in the neighborhood of like,
3000. In fact, you gave a specific number, 3005. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah. Oh, wow. That implies a certain expertise I don’t have
but at least I was bullish, at least that was on the right direction. VINCENT CATALANO: No, right direction. Yeah, definitely on the amplitude of the low
was pretty close to it. Here we are coming to the end of 2019, where
do you see the equity markets today? Valuation was tough before and more so now. JASON TRENNERT: The hard part now is the market
is not cheap by any normal standard. I don’t also think it’s particularly expensive
given where interest rates and inflation are. We’re using, just to use round numbers, about
$175 for S&P 500 operating earnings. If you put an 18 multiple on that, which I
think is fair, given where again 10-year Treasury yields and inflation is, it would tell you
the market right now is fully valued, but not overvalued. VINCENT CATALANO: Not Cape like overvalued. JASON TRENNERT: Not Cape like overvalued. I’m not sure I’m a big fan of Cape, frankly,
especially with interest rates this low to begin with. We were talking this morning in our– we have
morning meeting every morning at 7:30 where we all get together and we discuss the market’s
direction and what’s happening. Our view is largely that if we’re going to
be wrong on the market, it’s likely that the market’s going to continue to strengthen more
than people think that markets rarely stop at fair value. They tend to get overvalued before bull markets
end, and even though– again, it’s pretty fully valued right now, with the Fed on hold
for most of next year, it’s certainly hard to be short, it would be my view. VINCENT CATALANO: Earning’s looking pretty
good going into next year, at least the next 12 months. In any event, interest rates being low. That suggests to me that you guys use something
along the lines of a discounted cash flow model for value. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah, we do the earnings on
a bottom up basis, really from a sector level so that not bottom up all 500 S&P 500 companies,
but we do it sector by sector and we build it up from there and come up with an earnings
estimate for the year. Then we use a variety of econometric models
to forecast the multiple. Frankly, right now, the models spit out what
I would say was almost socially unacceptable numbers of 20 or 21, or 22 times earnings
just because you have secularly low interest rates and inflation. Probably we don’t want to bite on that too
much because generally speaking, it’s hard to get a multiple more than 19 or 20 on a
sustainable basis but by the same token, 18, or 19, is perfectly reasonable. Again, we’d rather be a little cautious and
be wrong by market moving up the other way as opposed to being too galosh and have the
market call the wrong way. VINCENT CATALANO: At an 18 multiple, that
sounds a little bit like the rule of 20. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah, that’s a fair– the
rule of 20 was created by my old boss, Jim Maltz and he had found over time, over a long
period of time, that if you added up the multiple of the S&P 500 and inflation, that on average,
the sum of those two items equal 20, over long periods of time. We have very sophisticated models that look
at all sorts of things. Then we have the rule of 20, and I’d have
to say that the rule 20 is just as good as some of the very sophisticated econometric
models. They’re largely getting at the same thing,
which is largely the idea that when you’re discounted cash flows by lower interest rates,
the net present value is quite a bit higher. That’s largely what it’s getting to. VINCENT CATALANO: Now, you referenced the
Fed and low interest rates and all, where do you see rates going into the next year,
which is a big factor all the way around economically in the financial market? JASON TRENNERT: Yeah. Well, short rates in my view are going to
stay in the current range. The Fed just met last week, second week of
December. You’re going to between 1.50 and 1.75, the
Fed has made it pretty clear, too, they’re not going to change until inflation is above
2 and looks like it’s going to stay above 2%. Right now, with inflation about 1.50, little
more than 1.50, that doesn’t seem to be likely anytime soon. I think the Fed is done for next year. Long rates, on the other hand, though, I think
should start to drift higher. Frankly, I think it’s a good thing if they’re
drifting higher because it’s a reflection of real GDP growth, as opposed to inflation. It’s hard to forecast inflation right now,
in my opinion. Our expectation is that a stronger global
economy next year will allow interest rates to move higher, and that actually winds up
being good for S&P 500 operating earnings because a steeper yield curve tends to be
good for financials. VINCENT CATALANO: That yield curve being more
positively sloped is a reflection of an economy, US and worldwide, that’s in better shape? JASON TRENNERT: That’s in better shape. Again, you have decent growth with low inflation. It’s really a Goldilocks type scenario. I think, again, next year is an election year,
too, as if we can’t forget, but the Fed probably doesn’t want to be too involved, wants to
be less involved than it has been over the last few years, probably doesn’t want to get
the president involved. They don’t need to. Again, they’re in a position now where inflation
is so tamed that I don’t think they have to worry too much about inflation getting away
from them, running away from them, and they can take their time with the next move. VINCENT CATALANO: Tell us about the political
scene because you guys covered that as well. Dan Clifton. JASON TRENNERT: Yep. Daniel Clifton. VINCENT CATALANO: Down there in Washington
and what’s your firm’s perspective on that? Implications economically and implications
for the market? JASON TRENNERT: Yeah, we’ve been in– and
I was saying before, we’ve had plenty of bad calls, but one of the good calls we’ve had
was on this idea of populism being something that can last. We were pretty early on in taking Donald Trump
seriously as a presidential candidate, pretty early on taking Brexit seriously as a potential
outcome. We’re still very much of the view that populism
is an enduring political theme. One thing I feel strongly about is that whoever
next president is, it will be a populist. The question is, is it the right of center
populace that’s in the presidency now, or is it a left of center populist, like a Bernie
Sanders or Elizabeth Warren? I think the days of– for the time being,
the days of having an establishment candidate are probably pretty unlikely, in my opinion,
and I think that it’s largely reflective of concerns that everyday people have that are
not largely and they have not really been met by the orthodoxy of the bigger parties. VINCENT CATALANO: That argues against someone
like a Joe Biden. JASON TRENNERT: Like a Joe Biden, in my opinion,
he may very well win the nomination but I think if he ran against Donald Trump, he might
have a decent chance of beating him but I think Donald Trump would win. Listen, incumbents have a hard time losing
anyway. Incumbents particularly have a hard time losing
when the economy is as strong as it is now. Now, there’s 10 months in– VINCENT CATALANO:
In any number of events. JASON TRENNERT: 10 months is an eternity,
especially these days in a 24-hour news cycle. Our best guess is that the status quo will
prevail, which is to say that Donald Trump will be reelected, that the Democrats will
keep hold of the house and the Republicans will keep control of the Senate. In our opinion, that’s the most likely outcome. By the same token, it’s pretty a 50/50 country,
and anything could happen but economy, in my opinion, will be the single most important
factor in terms of who gets elected next. VINCENT CATALANO: It’d be interesting to see
what the consequences of that would be worldwide. JASON TRENNERT: Donald Trump being reelected? VINCENT CATALANO: That’s correct. In other words, 2016 wasn’t an aberration,
it is what is. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah. My opinion, Brexit, what’s happening in Italy,
what’s happening in a lot of the regional elections in Europe I think give you a pretty
strong indication that 2016 wasn’t an aberration, that there are a lot of secular pieties on
both the left and the right that have been followed by the establishment candidates,
by establishment parties, that average people are saying this just doesn’t work for us. You could go through whether it’s free trade
with a country that’s not really interested in free trade, like China or open borders
or formal Care Act or wars, endless wars and all these sorts of things average people were
starting to question and they want something different. VINCENT CATALANO: Do you think that the, in
the US, the Democrats basically with their embrace of let’s call it the coastal elites,
so to speak, and in particular, Wall Street and Silicon Valley, do you think that that
is a dynamic that’s there that the democrats are missing? JASON TRENNERT: That’s my opinion. I grew up in– both my parents were Democrats
and I was a Democrat for a while, but it was very different party at that point, it was
largely for working men, working women. It was largely anti-communist, if you had
a strong religious faith, you didn’t feel that you were necessarily excluded. The party has changed a lot now and we could
debate those things, but I could say there’s a lot of people who have those opinions now
that might not feel that at home in the Democratic Party, and I think that’s one of the issues. I think that’s part of the why Donald Trump
won, he recognized that and recognized that there are certain longing for something. That’s why I think Joe Biden would probably
have the best chance of beating Donald Trump because I think he has that every man type
of feel. I think he would have a better shot at winning
than either Sanders or Warren. VINCENT CATALANO: How do you blend longer
term trends and themes with shorter term business cycle related issues? How do you mesh the two together? Because I get a sense that you do that you
do look at both. How do you develop that into an investment
methodology? JASON TRENNERT: Yeah. Well, that’s a great question. Because it is a constant struggle, and it’s
mainly because our clients are professional investors so to be frank, the main thing we’re
trying to get first is the next six to 12 months, just trying to make sure our clients
stay employed. Then in turn, keep us employed, because one
of the hard parts about the investment business, particularly when it comes to stocks and stocks
are the longest duration assets you can get really, maybe aside from real estate. Yet most people who manage stocks are managed
at best, or evaluated on a once a year basis. Then some hedge funds are evaluated on a monthly
basis. It’s an almost impossible task for the professional
investor today, in my opinion, that they again have our trading at very long duration assets
and yet, they’re held of this very short term standard. We try to give the longer term themes and
we publish separate reports on the longer term themes once every quarter, where we try
to give people say these are big, long term things to think about whether it might be
populism or whether it might be the convergence between the public and private equity markets
or very, very long term ideas. We publish those on a quarterly basis to make
sure people know what we’re thinking about those things but we also publish every day
about what’s happening every day and what we think is the most likely outcome on a shorter
to intermediate timeframe. VINCENT CATALANO: See, I think that that’s
one of the great value propositions of Strategas, is the fact that you do reconcile the long
term framework, so to speak, with the short term practical elements of it. What you said before about professional investors
that they’re judged on a shorter term basis, they’re in long duration assets, for the most
part, judged on a short term basis in many cases. Which is a difficult balancing act to do and
the thing I’ve always been struck by is that Strategas, my sense is that you guys have
your ear to that ground better than pretty much anybody. JASON TRENNERT: Well, that’s a very nice thing
to say. It’s actually, in my opinion, is one of the
great compliments you could give our firm. I think if we do that well, it’s largely because
we– for better or worse, we travel all the time meaning I’d say for worse because I have
to go through TSA or the airport. For better, once you get to wherever you’re
going– which I travel 70, 75 days a year and will be in everywhere from- – being everywhere
from Des Moines to London to Singapore and balance. My partners travel more than I do if you can
believe it, they’re a little younger than I am. The bad thing about that is time away from
your family and it’s not easy physically. The good thing though is that you meet a lot
of different types of investors and not just hedge funds here in New York. You also meet mutual fund managers in Boston
and state pension plans and the middle part of the country and then you might deal with
a big bank in Europe or big public pension plan in Australia, those types of things. You have a good idea of where people are positioned
and how people are thinking and it keeps your mind fresh too, because you’re not just talking
to each other, which is one of the biggest, let’s say one of the biggest risk in the investment
businesses, you just spent a lot of time talking to other people that have the same idea as
you do, or the same similar backgrounds or similar circumstances. VINCENT CATALANO: How do you factor that into,
or do you not factor that into your estimates of where the financial markets will be? That dynamic of what they’re thinking etc. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah, I wouldn’t say it’s
not, certainly not. There’s no mathematical way we do it, but
we do meet every day as a firm. We have a morning meeting, as I said, at 7:30
every morning and we share all the time what we’re hearing from the road, and the questions
that were being asked by investors and that the questions that were being asked by professional
investors inform a lot of our written work because again, if you spend a couple of days
on the road, let’s say in Texas, you’ll find that you’ll get the same two or three questions
in almost every meeting or something that’s on people’s minds. That will be the basis for the next report,
we say we should look into– we might not know the answer, well, likely not know the
answer. Then we’ll do the research and we’ll say this
is actually what happens. This is how long it takes between the first
Fed easing and the next Fed tightening on average, how long does that take? A lot of things along those lines, what happens
when the dollar strengthens or when the dollar weakens as it relates to earnings or sector
weightings or things along those lines? VINCENT CATALANO: That then gets fed back
into the decision process? JASON TRENNERT: Exactly. VINCENT CATALANO: What happens if you had
a view, a consensus view, let’s call it out there, of professional investors, some of
which may carry more weight than others in your mind in terms of their insights and their
views? If that is in conflict, let’s say, with the
fundamental valuation work that you’ve done with maybe the technical market intelligence
that’s there, what happens with that? Does that tilt, you say, oh, well, we believe
this but this element here is a dynamic? JASON TRENNERT: Well, I have to say as always,
as a basis for all the things we do I have to say is, it’s long enough to know that you
have to be humble in this business because it’s a very humbling business. We’re never– I would say the style of the
firm is decidedly never to pound the table on anything. We are always thinking about ways when we
put on any new call. Before we put it on, we think about how we
might be wrong and what would cause us to change our mind before the trade is put on
or before the idea is established because it becomes important because you want to be
able to recognize when you’re wrong quickly as opposed to just trying to paper over it
or make other excuses for it. Our clients, mercifully, our clients give
us a lot of benefit for showing our work. Like as long as it’s well thought out and
well-reasoned, our clients cut us wide slack when we’re wrong. Again, we try to have this discipline of when
we are wrong, admitting it quickly and moving on and getting onto something where we might
have an edge. VINCENT CATALANO: That comment reminds me
of something that Byron Wien of Morgan Stanley, one said at a CFA market forecast event that
I did, when he was asked the question why are we doing this forecast for the year ahead? He said, it’s not the specific forecast for
the number, it’s the process that you put into it in understanding. That sounds like what you just said. JASON TRENNERT: I think that’s right. I think Wall Street or in the investment business,
it can be sometimes when people are not involved in the business, it can seem rather dry or
very uncreative. Yet I think the investment business in many
ways is more and more intellectually stimulating businesses there can be because virtually,
everything can have an investment implications. It can be very creative business in its own
way. If you’re a news junkie like I am, you spend
a lot of time learning about all sorts of different things, not just political events,
but scientific events or social movements, all of those things can go into higher thinking. It’s important. I view it that way, something where you’re
constantly learning and trying to test your thesis and all the rest. VINCENT CATALANO: Social Science with money. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah. I think the problems– it is a social science,
and the problems in the financial markets come when people try to make it a hard science
I find. That’s when people like long term capital
trying to make it a hard science, people that packaged mortgage backed securities and credit
default swaps, they try to make it a hard science like you put a little bit of a beaker
A and a beaker B and it equals beaker C, all the time. The thing is when you’re dealing with human
beings, it doesn’t work that way. That’s one of the things I have to say worries
me a little bit about this Fed. I feel more confident in the past Fed, Bernanke
Fed and the Yellen Fed, like I worry quite a bit that they viewed their role as really
almost as chemists, or hard scientists, where, if you do enough of one thing, it will always
turn out the way you expect it and it just doesn’t. When you’re dealing with human beings, of
course, it doesn’t work that way. VINCENT CATALANO: I want to get to a couple
of actionable items and areas that your friend was looking at. Before we do, I’d like to get your views on
private equity. Quite a bit of money is going in that direction. Institutional investors are shifting money
more so than at any point in the past into private equity. First, what’s your view in general of private
equity as an investment vehicle alternative? Then secondly, I’d like to get your thoughts
on what you think the motivating factor might be for institutional investors going into
private equity that might include the whole issue of required rates of return, and not
being able to hit it when you have interest rates at 2% and 3% and you got mark to market
with that, and then you have private equity that’s [indiscernible] your thoughts on private
equity. JASON TRENNERT: Well, I have to say in terms
of just being frank about it, we have no private equity clients. Consider the source. All of my clients are public equity or public
market clients. I want to be fair, or just tell you where
my biases might lie, but I’m very skeptical about private equity, the future returns of
private equity being anything like what they were in the past. David Swensen really put private equity on
the map in terms of an institutional asset class. What he discovered was that there was a discount
for illiquid private companies, or that there was a liquidity premium for publicly traded
companies. He said, I can buy these assets, and I can
buy them in the private markets at a discount and eventually, they’ll either be public and
so on, I’ll make a lot of money. That made a lot of sense. He made a lot of money doing it, but of course,
he was the first person to do it. Now, you’re 25 years removed from when David
Swensen really started doing that and there are now 7000 private equity funds that have
about $3 trillion in assets. In my opinion you’re running out of– and
valuations, in my opinion, are not cheap anymore. I would argue that there’s actually an illiquidity
premium now over the public markets. Part of this and this gets into your second
question, which is why are people throwing so much money there? Frankly I think people are chasing performance
and I would also say that there’s an opacity of the private markets that is very appealing
if you don’t want to be embarrassed or fired. Not to be overly cynical about it, but your
average public pension plan has an investment return assumption of 7.50%. Very hard to do that when 10-year Treasury
yields are below 2% and the long term average returns of public equities are 7, pretty hard
to get to 7.50. The only way you can really get that is through
leverage. That’s what private equity provides. It also though, it provides the best leverage
because it moves much more slowly, the marks move much more slowly and so you’re more unlikely
to be embarrassed again or fired by having very outsized allocations to private equity. VINCENT CATALANO: That aspect that, you brought
this up several time now, that aspect is I think really underappreciated by many investors. That dynamic of the potential of career suicide,
of getting fired, it’s almost as though– okay, I’ve refrained from saying this or making
this connection but it’s just such a fun thing I think to do, CFA equal CYA. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah. Well, listen, I think all of us and no matter
what line of work we’re in, job number one is keeping your job. I think that we’re just human beings. We’re all part of the same hypocrisies. You have to just recognize that and try to
use it to your advantage and it doesn’t mean that people were all– no, it doesn’t mean
you’re bad people or– VINCENT CATALANO: No nefarious reasons. JASON TRENNERT: There’s no nefarious reasons
but there is a reality of the institutional investment business which, again, is as career
as a central part of it. Just like anyone else in any other profession
has the same tensions, that this just happens to be with other people’s money that tells
they’re different. VINCENT CATALANO: That’s a great, great point. Last item, actionable ideas. Sector coping style investing, asset allocation. Give us some thoughts on Strategas as you
where I might want to be for 2020. We had Rich Bernstein on the program here
a couple of months ago and late cycle investing was his thing that he was emphasizing, your
thoughts on where we’re at and where we ought to be as investors? JASON TRENNERT: Yeah, I would say in that
regard, we have a little bit of a different view than Rich and that I’m not convinced
where his late cycle as it might seem, I know the business expansion is 10 years old. It might seem late, but I also think that
the real Fed Funds Rate is zero. Usually what ends recoveries is the Fed killing
it. Inflation rises where the Fed killing it and
here because of financial repression, you’re pretty far away from that. What we’re telling our clients to do is to
get more cyclical. We’ve told them to really get more, we told
them to buy financials, we’re overweight four sectors, financials, industrials, technology
and telecom. We’re of the view that actually next year,
the global economy will pick up. That’s largely because a lot of the trade
tensions will largely be behind us, at least as far as it relates to business confidence. In my opinion, the trade war, in some ways,
it’s sterilized some of the benefits of the tax cut that you got at the end of 2017. That was good for capital spending for a year
but then it faded because businesses got scared because of trade. If trade is behind us, there is a chance that
business confidence picks up, capital spending picks up and also global economic activity
picks up and that should be good for those sectors. VINCENT CATALANO: Anything in terms of the–
any thoughts in terms of the global markets, emerging markets, frontier, Europe? JASON TRENNERT: Europe in my opinion is probably
as a trade, as more of a trade or a tactical approach let’s say for a year, six months
to a year as opposed to secular, I like you’re up quite a bit because in some ways, I tend
to think it almost got hurt the most between the tensions between China and the US just
because it’s so trade oriented, it’s so geared towards trade, it should benefit the most
if global growth starts to pick up. The question will be longer term, whether
Europe makes the structural changes it needs to pave the way for long lasting growth, but
for next year, at least in my opinion, Europe looks quite good. VINCENT CATALANO: That’s terrific. Thanks so much, Jason. JASON TRENNERT: Thank you. I appreciate it. VINCENT CATALANO: All the best in the year
ahead. JASON TRENNERT: Thank you. Thanks a lot. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it.

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Box Office – Bad Boys for Life, 1917 & Dolittle TOP The Gentlemen


hello and welcome to this week’s movie
math where this weekend in a rare instance Hollywood was not focused on
getting you to pay to see their movies instead their laser focused on sundance
well maybe laser focused is a bit much because over the past few years Sundance
has waned in popularity and importance with fewer and smaller deals coming out
of the fest it’s actually turning into a bit of a pipeline to streaming which is
a sad commentary not just on Sundance but small phelps but one of the problems
is is that the biggest movies out of last year’s fast never really landed the
biggest being honey boy in The Farewell but they didn’t land like Sundance hits
like Sundance hits used to land so Hollywood’s kind of Hollywood’s doing
what audiences are doing this weekend they’re both kind of picking over a
garage sale right and so because they were focused
elsewhere they weren’t yeah they didn’t really try this weekend it’s where
Hollywood rarely does that they do that with the Oscar weekend is also the same
way and then also sometimes like at the end like you know it’s a late August
September they’re like we need to take a vacation too but you know that’s about
it even streaming was weak this weekend with only Netflix delivering Sabrina
part three and two Toyotas Hollywood come on I mean like remember in December
just a month ago when there was too much to watch some of that stuff could have
gone here I really do feel that eventually the whole calendar will be in
play but interestingly we’re not there yet
anyway as I said there was still money to be made as Hollywood picked over
Sundance and audiences picked over leftovers at the multiplex there were
some new releases we’ll talk about them but the more interesting stories are
actually with the left overs all right so bad boys for life easily
held on to the top spot and while it’s drop was a tad higher than I think Sony
would want considering the lack of competition it still sailed past the
century mark and only at second weekend but bad boys for life still has two
important countries to hit Brazil and India and there couldn’t be pockets of
cash there particularly Brazil but no matter what happens globally bad boys
for life will soon is grossing entry in the franchise not
accounting for inflation which is not in their favor but anyway this will help to
further guarantee that fourth installment
although Sony and brookheimer better locked down are bein foie as Marvel is
already talking to the directing duo they do love a directing duo over there
then 1917 also held on to the number two spot from last weekend as it continues
to pick up a ward after a ward on what is looking more and more like an Oscar
March just crossed the century mark slow and steady like its protagonists and the
world war one flick should continue to do strong business until the Oscars on
February 9th and probably the weekend after as it’s looking like it’s gonna
win Best Picture and everyone who still hasn’t gone will go well I guess we
better go that’s Universal plan and it’s about the only thing going according to
plan for universal as you’ll see from the rest of today’s discussion all right
so of course doolittle dolittle might be an animal whisperer right but it seems
our DJ is finally an audience whisperer why was this skill before he’s been you
know out of Marvel a little bit and ever really clicked for him before but for
some reason this movie is clicking as Doolittle shockingly had an okay second
weekend drop it did not plummet worldwide the flick is almost at the
century mark right and it still has a number of very big countries to go
box-office wise it could make some real cash here by the end of its theatrical
run and after streaming the movie might might actually break even and perhaps
perhaps turn a slight profit I know that’s a little bit aggressively
positive because I’m just so surprised at this turn of events but at least I
don’t think it’s going to shape up to be a huge embarrassment like initially
seemed and with the up with his upcoming Sherlock in good hands with Dexter
Fletcher well this is quite the hat trick for our DJ let’s hope Downey and
his wife’s lunch business partner realized this but this was a close call
and that they’re lucky to have survived it rather than have the takeaway be
we’re invincible or maybe they are right I mean Abby CinemaScore these numbers
like whoa what do you think audiences are okay with Doolittle have you seen
Doolittle do you secretly think it’s okay
you can tell us alright so yes some new movies were also released this weekend
but it wasn’t pretty the gentleman which has really sought
our t-score just couldn’t entice audiences to pay to pay to see it with
the lowest debut for Guy Ritchie ever from highest to lowest
ouch Disney if Ritchie’s been playing hard-to-get with the Latin – I bet he’ll
sign now they’re like ah excellent his price was just moving down and I will
Swiss by the way just went up it’s a tough business but I don’t get me to my
suit on the cheap as well sadly although if they keep waiting maybe he’ll sign a
deal I hope he does but anyway it’s really a minute Matthew McConaughey’s
fault here though because this is a high debut for the Oscar winner who’s had
trouble attracting an audience a paying audience for quite some time now the
entire cast really has this problem as talented as they are Ryan Gosling he
should have been in this movie as nobody wants to pay to see him either I know
some of you are big fans of certain talent and you can’t upset but it’s just
a it’s a harsh reality of the business you know it’s not just important for
them to do a good job in the movie but there’s a Salesman element to their job
they have to sell tickets and nobody in this cast can sell tickets it’s one of
the reasons that even though I adore Colin Farrell I get worried every time
he’s in a big movie because he’s got a bad track record as a salesman so I
don’t know why these people are all so talented even Ryan Gosling I don’t know
why nobody wants to pay to see him but it’s a sad but true fact uh I’m not
saying it can sometimes be turned around but it’s difficult alright so anyway
then the embarrassments just keep on coming for universal who followed abdul
little with the turning 12 percent on Rotten Tomatoes F cinema score enough
although we just had one for the grudge – so the F is becoming less rare as a
cinema score yeah but it’s still managed to pull in 7.3 million which shows when
Hollywood loves the horror genre but with a budget of 10 to 14 million uni
universal even overspent here as for the rest of the box office some of you are
left wondering over bring up Jumanji Grace well here you go
jewel on shoot is hit 721 million worldwide
now that’s 200 million behind the last installment but Sony will definitely
make another one that’s excellent and speaking of franchises the rise of
Skywalker finally crossed 500 domestic clue now it still won’t be able to catch
rogue ones 532 at this point it looks like but it’s hard to reach 500 million
putting the rise of Skywalker at number 15 all time domestics that’s
not bad leave with your head held high Kathleen now is the time to go where
everyone can win right I really feel this is this is we can all feel it this
is the moment and speaking of Star Wars redemption knives out is now at two
hundred and eighty three point three million worldwide off of an incredible
40 million budget now of course that doesn’t include advertising but sticks
didn’t spend that much on advertising they spent a good amount though that was
advertised very much but also very effectively we and John Rian Johnson
might be in denial about ever making that a Star Wars trilogy he keeps saying
oh it’s still in the mix yeah right but he’s definitely found himself a new
franchise that he’s created himself that’s an excellent counterbalance to I
ruined Star Wars but I think Kathleen Kennedy will ultimately end up wearing
that t-shirt because she’s the one who led him the buck stops at the head of
the company now as for this coming weekend it’s Super Bowl Sunday and I of
course will be covering all the new trailers reactions and breakdowns but
that means no movies again because you know Hollywood feels everyone will be
watching the Super Bowl on Sunday and planning for it on Saturday so typically
nothing comes out this weekend right except for the Fast and Furious 9
concert on Friday when they drop the trailer a little bit early because Super
Bowl spots are expensive and you don’t really need them that that much anymore
we’ll see how many trailers do debut Disney is a big spender though and
that’s what everybody wants to see so we should have some good stuff now only two
female led Pixar trying to counter program the Super Bowl the rhythm
section and Gretel and Hansel but neither expect is expected to counter
program successfully so that’s this week’s movie bath thanks for going over
the box office with me share your thoughts down below subscribe today and
of course as always you can check out some more videos right now