Calculating the Growth Rate of an Investment 141-30.a


This video is provided as supplementary
material for courses taught at Howard Community
College and in this video I’m going to show how to calculate the
growth rate of an investment. The problem says An investment $4000
grows to $6800 in 10 years. What annual nominal rate would produce the same growth if the
interest was compound annually, or compounded monthly or compounded continuously. Let’s
start with the compounded annually problem. We want to find out what interest rate we would have to get if
we invested $4000 compounded annually for 10 years and wanted it to grow to $6800. So the formula we have for compound interest is A equals P times 1 plus r/n raised to the nt power. Now A is the amount of
money that we’re getting back. We want to get back 6800. So we’ll replace A with 6800. And P is the principal, which is the $4000 we
would invest initially. we’ve got 1 plus r/n. r is the interest rate. We don’t know that
so we’ll just write r, and n is the number of compounding
periods per year. Well, if its compounded annually there’s only one compounding period each year. So n would be 1. So this is just (1 + r),
and then we’re raising that to the nt power, where t is time and we want this to happen over a 10-year period. Once again n equals 1. So this is raised to the 10th
power. Now what we have to do is solve for r.
The first thing is to divide both sides of the equation by 4000. So I’ve got 6800 divided by 4000, and that equals 1.7. Now I have 1.7 equals (1 + r) raised to the 10th power. I’d like to get rid
of this exponent. I’ll raise the entire right side of the equation to another power, 1/10, and then the 10 and the
1/10 will cancel each other out. I have to do the same thing to the left
side of the equation. So the left side become 1.7 raised to the 1/10. This means I’ll have 1.7 raised to the one-tenth power and that will equal 1 + r. Let’s finish getting the r all by itself. I’ll just subtract 1 from both
sides of the equation. So it’s 1.7 raised to the 1/10 – 1. I’ll use a calculator. I want 1.7 raised to the 1/10. When I get an answer I subtract 1 from
that, and what I end up with is .05449, and that it equals r. So we’ve got to round this and turn it into a percent. I’ll multiply
by 100. that will give me 5.45%. So the answer to the first part of the
problem is we have to invest this money at 5.45%. Now let’s go on to the next part. This is
where the money is invested and compounded monthly. So we’ll have that same
formula again, A equals P times 1 plus r/n raised to the nt power. A, once again, is 6800, and P is 4000. We multiply that times 1 plus r/n — we don’t know what r is, but n, the number of compounding periods a year, would be 12, because we’re compounding monthly. That’s raised at to the nt power. n is 12, and t is the number of years,
that’s 10. And now we want to solve for r. I’ll divide both sides by 4000.
When I did that last time I got 1.7. So 1.7 equals 1 plus r/12 raised to the 12 times
10, which is 120. I want to get rid of the exponent. So I’ll raise both sides of the equation to the 1/120 power. I have 1.7 raised to the 1/120 equals 1 + r/12. I’ll subtract 1 from both
sides of the equation. I have 1.7 to the 1/120 minus 1 equals r over 12. To get r, we’ll just multiply both
sides the equation by 12. So I have 12 times 1.7 raised to the 1/120 -1 equals r. I’ll use the calculator. First I’ll do 1.7 raised to the 1 divided by 120. I’ll subtract 1 from the answer. And now I want to take that, that’s
everything here in parentheses, and multiply it by 12. and I end up with .05318… I’ll turn this into a percent and round it. So it’s going to be 5.32%. This is a little bit lower than what we
got the last time. That was 5.45%, which makes sense because we’re compounding more frequently. And the last one is what happens when we compound
continuously. We have a different formula for that. The formula of compounding continuously
is A equals P times e raised to the rt. So, A once again is 6800. P is 4000, and I’ve got that raised to the rt. I don’t know what r is, but I know t is
10. So that’s the r times 10, or 10r power. I want to solve for r, so I’ll take the
natural log of both sides of this equation……. Oh, I’m sorry, first I should divide both sides by 4000. That’s the samething I’ve done twice already. I get 1.7 equals e to the 10r. Now we’ll take the natural logs. So I
have ln, the natural log, of 1.7 equals the natural log of e raised to the 10r. I can take this exponent, 10r, and using exponent rule for logarithms, make that into a coefficient. So I have the natural log of 1.7 equals 10r times in the natural log of e. But the natural log of e is just 1. So I’ll cross that out. I have the natural log of 1.7 equals 10r. I’ll divide both sides by 10 and I get the rate is the natural log
of 1.7 divided by 10. Let’s use a calculator to find that
natural log of 1.7. And I want to divide that by 10. and I get .05306… for the rate. We’ll round this and turn it
into a percent. It’s going to be 5.31%, a little bit lower than the
previous rate because it’s compounded continuously.
okay And that’s it. Take care. I’ll see you next
time.

Fed expected to cut funds rate to 1.75 percent to 2 percent


STRONG. A LOT TO DISCUSS. SO LET’S BRING IN WELLS FARGO SECURITY RATE STRATEGIST ZACHARY GRIFFITH, BELLPOINTE CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, DAVID NELSON. SARGE 986 HE IS PRESIDENT AND IN. SARGE, GOOD TO HAVE YOU IN STUDIO. I LIKE WHAT IS GOING ON HERE, THAT NOT HEADLINE STUFF BUT THE ECONOMIC DATA, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, HUGE. BY THE WAY CHINA’S INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AT 17 1/2-YEAR LOW. OURS CAME IN 200% BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED. HOMEBUILDER CONFIDENCE, BEST LEVEL OF THE YEAR. IS IT TOO GOOD GOING INTO TOMORROW’S FED MEETING?>>I THINK YES, IT IS VERY POSITIVE. I THINK CPI IS A LITTLE BIT WORRISOME TO ME. AS A GUY WHO THINKS THE FED SHOULD CUT BY 25 BASIS POINTS TOMORROW. I’M WORRIED THAT HEADLINE INFLATION MAY CATCH UP TO CORE INFLATION NOW THAT WE HAVE A POP IN OIL PRICES. WE DON’T KNOW WHERE CHINESE NEGOTIATIONS WILL GO. IF THEY GO ANYWHERE, WE’LL GET ENOUGH BATCH OF TARIFFS. CHARLES: AS LONG AS IT IS CALM AND QUIET. WE ENDURED A YEAR-AND-A-HALF OF CHINA TARIFFS. IT HAS NOT HURT OUR ECONOMY, WHAT HURTS MORE, DAVID, THE TWEETS, CHANGE IN DIRECTION, PANIC COMES ALONG WITH THAT. BUT THE ACTUAL ECONOMIC IMPACT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MUTED.>>SO FAR SO GOOD. CONSUMER IS LARGE PART OF THAT. DESPITE THE FACT THAT INDUSTRIAL DATA IS MIXES THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. A LOT OF POLICIES ISSUES I DISAGREE WITH JAY POWELL. WE DON’T LIVE IN A VACUUM. CENTRAL BANKS, NEGATIVE RATES, GOT GERMANY. THE ENTIRE YIELD CURVE IS UNDERWATER. NOT SURPRISING MONEY POURS INTO THE UNITED STATES DRIVING YIELDS DOWN. THE PRESIDENT BOXED HIMSELF INTO A CORNER. ALMOST MADE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE FED TO DO ANYTHING BUT AN INCREMENTAL CUT. CHARLES: YOU’RE THE FED EXPERT. YOU RUN A WHOLE DEPARTMENT AT WELLS FARGO TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE HECK WILL HAPPEN WITH THESE RATES. WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN?>>WE’RE CALLING FOR 25 BASIS POINT RATE CUT. WE THINK THAT IS ALL BUT A DONE DEAL AT THIS POINT. WE THINK HOW CHAIRMAN POWELL WILL POSITION THE MESSAGE GOING FORWARD, WE DON’T SEE TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM HERE. BACK IN JULY HE GOT CAUGHT UP — CHARLES: WHAT YOU SAY YOU DON’T SEE TOO MUCH CHANGE, I DON’T KNOW WHAT THE POWELL DOCTRINE IS, ZACH, TO BE QUITE FRANK WITH YOU. I’M NOT WORRIED ABOUT THE CUT. I’M MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE Q&A, HE STARTS TO FEEL LIKE TAKING ON PERSONAL ANIMOSITY WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP, THE FIRST QUESTION LAST TIME I THOUGHT SANK THE MARKET. ONCE HE IS TRANSITORY, LOW INFLATION IS TRANSITORY, THEN, ONE TIME HE IS NOT NOT REALLY SURE. WE’RE NOT GETTING A CLEAR MESSAGE WHAT THE POWELL DOCTRINE IS.>>LAST TIME HE SPOOKED THE MARKETS. AS WE GO FORWARD I THINK WE’LL STEP AWAY FROM THAT. THEY HIGHLIGHTED THESE ARE INSURANCE RATE CUTS. THEY WILL ACT TO WE THINK FUTURE RATE CUTS, ANOTHER ONE IN Q4 AND ONE IN FIRST QUARTER 2020. CHARLES: WHEN ALL SAID AND DONE WE’LL SEE OVER NEXT SEVERAL FED MEETINGS.>>HOW ABOUT THIS? JAY POWELL CALLS IN SICK. NO DOT PLOT. NO PRESS CONFERENCE. CUT 25 BASIS POINT, DROP THE MIC. CAN’T HURT US THAT WAY. CHARLES: ESPECIALLY IF WE GOT RID OF THE.PLOT. SEEMS LIKE THE WALL STREET IS FACING FOR THE FED TO SAY ONE THING. THERE WAS CONFUSION. WE HAD TWO OFFICIAL DISSENTERS. WE HAVE FED GOVERNORS THAT DON’T AGREE WITH POLICY. JAY POWELL LIKES CONSENSUS THINKING. WE WANT FEDERAL RESERVE TO TAKE OVER.>>I WANT CONSENSUS, AS MILITARY GUY, SO ARE YOU. CHARLES: MILITARY GUY, WHEN THE HIGHEST RANKING OFFICER STEPPED IN THE ROOM HE OR SHE WAS IN CHARGE!>>IT SAYS, SARGE, WHAT SHOULD I DO? I LIKE THAT. OTHER SERGEANTS HAVE INPUT. THAT IS HOW YOU COME TO A BETTER DECISION.>>DURING THE NEXT WEEK YOU WILL SEE A PARADE OF FED HEADS WALK OUT ON SHOWS LIKE THIS, WALKING OUT WHATEVER COMES TOMORROW. THEY WILL BE TALKING THEIR OWN BOOK. CHARLES: WITH RESPECT TO WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT, I DON’T WANT TO GET WONKY ABOUT THIS, THERE WAS A MINI-CRISIS, A LOT OF PEOPLE SAY IT COULD IMPACT THE FEDERAL RESERVE. MAYBE THEIR BALANCE SHEET COULD BE LARGER. HELP US WITH THIS, ZACH.>>YOU SAW REPO RATES TAKE OFF. TWO BIG THINGS WE SAW DRIVING THIS, CORPORATE TAX PAYMENTS AT SEPTEMBER 15th TAX DEADLINE, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME NET TREASURY ISSUANCE IN THE FORM OF COUPONS WAS ABOVE 50 BILLION ON MONDAY OF THIS WEEK. THOSE TWO FACTORS, PARTICULAR TIMING OF THE TWO, CAUSED A BIG GYRATION IN MARKETS. THE FED HAD TO STEP IN TODAY, AND DO THIS OPERATION TO TRY TO CALM THE MARKETS. THE BIG THING WE THINK IMPACT IT MAY HAVE ON TOMORROW, THEY MAY LOOK AT CUTTING IOER RATE IN RESPONSE TO ALL OF THIS AS MORE –>>THERE WILL BE A QUESTION TOMORROW, ONE OF THE FIRST QUESTIONS ASKED AT THE PODIUM TOMORROW. CHARLES: YOU DON’T SEEM NERVOUS. ARE YOU NERVOUS, A, THE FED MAY NO LONGER, THIS COULD BE A MOOT CONVERSATION IF THE FED HAS NO LONGER CONTROL OVER WHERE RATES GO? SHORT TERM OR LONG TERM.>>OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WE DON’T SEE SOME OF THE SAME PRESSURES, AGAIN, QUARTERLY TAX DEADLINES COME ONCE A QUARTER. THIS BIG SETTLEMENT WAS MID-MONTH. TWO SETTLEMENTS OF TREASURYS PER MONTH. BIG THING NEXT COUPLE WEEKS OR COUPLE DAYS THEY WILL NOT ISSUE AS MUCH BILLS. THAT WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF PRESSURE OFF THE MARKET IN THE FRONT END. CHARLES: ANY NOTION EXPANDING THE BALANCE BECAUSE OF THIS? MAYBE THIS COULD BE A EXCUSE TO DO THIS? PRESIDENT TRUMP WANTS QUANTITATIVE EASING.>>WE’RE NOT CALLING FOR QUANTITATIVE EASING. CHARLES: MARIO DRAGHI SAID QUANTITY QUANTITY IS A GOOD THING. HE SAID NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES WAS SPECTACULAR. THAT WAS HECK OF A PRESS CONFERENCE HE HAD. HE SEEMED TO BE PRETTY THRILLED WITH HIMSELF. NOT EXACTLY HAPPY WHEN IT CAME TO FISCAL POLICY.>>THAT WILL COLLAPSE OUR YIELD CURVE IN NOVEMBER.>>3.8 TRILLION IS ENOUGH TO HANDLE THIS. WE THINK IT IS. WE DON’T EXPECT THEM TO START QE. IF YOU LOOK AT ECONOMY IN U.S. IT IS FARING MUCH BETTER.>>I THINK FIRST TERM COINCIDENCE. IT ALL CAME TOGETHER AT ONCE.>>ASIAN MARKETS WERE CLOSED YESTERDAY. DON’T FORGET THAT. CHARLES: MY TWO MARKET GUYS, HAVE YOU CHANGED POSITIONING FOR THIS? MARKETS REACTED NEGATIVE TO LAST COUPLE TIMES POWELL SPOKEN, HE SAID SOMETHING WALL STREET DIDN’T LIKE OR HE CONFUSED THE HECK OUT OF WALL STREET AND SCARED THE HECK OUT OF WALL STREET. HOW ARE YOU POSITIONING FOR TOMORROW?>>I’M CAUTIOUS AROUND JEROME POWELL, I DON’T THINK HE SPEAKS FOR MARKETS. I’M GOING AT A HIGH CASH LEVEL. I TRYING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE ROTATION. I GONE BACK INTO A LOT OF NAMES GOTTEN OUT OF A WEEK OR TWO AGO. A LOT OF — CHARLES: MOMENTUM GAMES YOU’RE GETTING IN.>>NOT FULL POSITIONS BUT I’M EXPOSED.>>MY FEAR IS NOT THE CUT. THE RHETORIC THAT FOLLOWS AND

Trump doesn’t want the euro getting weaker: Freeman


DOESN’T MANY COULD BACK TO THE MIC HE IS PRONE TO DO THAT. JAMES FREEMAN FROM “WALL STREET JOURNAL.” HE IS ALSO A FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR. THERE WERE SOME NUGGETS FOR MARKET AND EVERYTHING ELSE. HE TALKED ABOUT MARIO DRAGHI, TALKED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON IN EUROPE. THEY SAID ARE YOU GOING TO DEMOTE JEROME POWELL. WE’LL SEE WHAT HE DOES, SOMETHING LIKE THAT. HE THOUGHT MARIO DRAGHI, THEY JUST DID A BEAUTIFUL THING. WE KNOW THAT THEY SIGNALED THEY WILL BE POTENTIALLY ADDING MORE STIMULUS INTO THE ECONOMY OVER THERE. WHAT DID YOU, WHAT DID THAT SIGNAL TO YOU? WHAT DO YOU THINK HAPPENS?>>I THINK THE PRESIDENT DOESN’T LIKE THE EURO GETTING WEAKER. HE THINKS IT IS BAD FOR EXPORTERS IN THE U.S. A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE U.S. LIKE TO HAVE A STRONG DOLLAR. LOOK, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, MONETARY STIMULUS, THEY HAVE DONE SO MUCH OF IT, YOU NOW HAVE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 5000 YEARS OF RECORDED HISTORY, WE’VE BEEN THE LAST FEW YEARS IN ERA OF NEGATIVE RATES OVER THERE. MELISSA: YEAH.>>MAYBE THEY WOULD PUSH THEM LOWER? THAT IS NOT THE SOLUTION TO THEIR LACK OF ECONOMIC GROWTH. THEY NEED OTHER REFORMS. MELISSA: BUT HE IS LOOKING ON IT, SAYING I WOULD LIKE SOME TOO. IF YOU HEARD LARRY KUDLOW ON FOX NEWS CHANNEL EARLIER TODAY, THE BOND MARKET IS SIGNALING THEY THINK JEROME POWELL IS LOWERING RATE. MR. KUDLOW SAID WE WOULDN’T MIND THAT. THEY’RE INDEPENDENT. WE DON’T TELL THEM WHAT TO DO. WE WOULD LOVE FOR THEM TO LOWER RATES TOO. SOUNDED LIKE PRESIDENT TRUMP, SAYING THAT MARIO DRAGHI DID A BEAUTIFUL THING, HINTING NOT SO SUBTLY THAT PLEASE, JEROME POWELL PLEASE FOLLOW SUIT. MAYBE THAT GIVES OUR FED MORE COVER TO DO SOMETHING SIMILAR. LET ME TALK ABOUT WHAT HE SAID ABOUT AT THE END OF CHINA. THEY WANT TO MAKE A DEAL. WE WANT TO MAKE A DEAL. WE HEARD THAT BEFORE. KUDLOW SAID THEY WILL BE TALKING AHEAD OF THIS BIG MEETING AS TWO LEADERS GET TOGETHER. STAFF ON BOTH SIDES WORK ON SOME OF THE DETAILS. THAT IS WHAT BUMPED MARKET SO MUCH HIGHER, WE’RE LOOKING AT THE DOW UP 353 POINT, WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON HIS COMMENT, WHERE WE ARE WITH CHINA?>>IT IS INTERESTING. WE’LL SEE IF WE GET A DEAL. IT HAS TO BE GOOD FOR BOTH SIDES. IT IS GOOD FOR US. USUAL NOTES ABOUT RELATIONSHIP WITH XI XINPING. THERE IS PRESSURE ON BOTH SIDES. CERTAINLY SEE THE COSTS OUT OF FARMERS TO MANUFACTURERS IN THIS COUNTRY. YOU ALSO SEE STRESS ON CHINA. YOU SEE IT DISAPPOINTING INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION THERE. YOU SEE SOME STRESS IN THEIR FINANCIAL SYSTEM. SO I DON’T REALLY BUY THE IDEA THAT XI, BECAUSE HE IS A DICTATOR HE CAN HAVE THIS EXTREMELY LONG-TERM VIEW, NECESSARILY WAIT TRUMP OUT. I THINK THERE IS BIG INCENTIVE FOR BOTH OF THESE, ONE OUR LEGITIMATE LEADER, THEIR ILLEGITIMATE LEADER TO CUT A DEAL. MELISSA: TO GET TOGETHER. WE WANT TO TELL YOU PEOPLE WHAT YOU JUST SAW, YOU SAW THE PRESIDENT AND FIRST LADY GET ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE. THEY’RE HEADING DOWN TO ORLANDO FOR THE BIG EVENT LAST NIGHT. ONE LAST QUESTION. HE WAS TALKING ABOUT IMMIGRATION. HUGE STICKING POINT. NO DOUBT HE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT A LOT AT THE KICKOFF FOR THE CAMPAIGN. HE SAID THAT ASYLUM AND LOOPHOLES, THEY WERE BOTH THINGS THAT COULD BE FIXED VERY EASILY. THAT HE WOULD LIKE DEMOCRATS TO GET TO WORK AND ANYONE IN CONGRESS, GET A DEAL DONE ON IMMIGRATION THAT BOTH SIDES COULD HAMMER SOMETHING OUT IN ABOUT AN HOUR, HOUR 1/2, I THINK HE SAID. HE WAS ALSO ASKED THE OTHER DAY IN AN INTERVIEW WHAT HE WOULD GIVE UP IN ORDER FOR THESE THINGS. HE SEEMED WILLING TO GIVE TO GET AT THIS POINT.>>YEAH. MELISSA: DO YOU THINK DEMOCRAT ARE?>>YOU WONDER HOW MANY INVITATIONS, I DON’T KNOW WHY THEY DON’T MAKE A PUBLIC OFFER, AND SAY, OKAY, WE’LL GIVE YOU THIS PART OF THE WALL, YOU GIVE US THIS CHANGE IN ASYLUM LAW AND GIVE US DREAMERS, LEGAL STATUS FOR PEOPLE BROUGHT HERE AS CHILDREN. MELISSA: YEAH.>>THERE SEEMS TO BE OBVIOUS WAY TO MAKE A DEAL. I DON’T, I DON’T THINK THAT AMERICANS NECESSARILY ARE BETTER OFF GIVEN OUR WORKER SHORTAGE IF WE START SHIPPING ALL THESE PEOPLE OVER, BACK OVER THE BORDER, BUT LOOK, IF HE IS SAYING I’M GOING TO ENFORCE LEGAL DEPORTATION ORDERS, IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THAT. MELISSA: YEAH.>>YOU WISH FINALLY NANCY PELOSI AND CHUCK SCHUMER WOULD TAKE THE OBVIOUS DEAL ON THE TABLE. MELISSA: YOU WOULD THINK THAT IF THEY WERE SMART THEY WOULD THROW OUT SOMETHING NO MATTER HOW OUTRAGEOUS IT IS, HERE IS OUR

Business Cycles Explained: Austrian Theory


The Austrian theory postulates that entrepreneurs
are tricked or fooled by government-engineered increases in the money supply. Here’s a
simple example of how the scenario runs: The central bank inflates the supply of money.
The real interest rate falls because there are more funds to be lent out. As the real
interest falls, entrepreneurs borrow more. They undertake longer and more ambitious projects,
and eventually, according to the Austrian theory, those longer and more ambitious projects
cannot be sustained, they turn a loss rather than a profit, and eventually the boom becomes
a bust. [The Housing Bubble] To consider a specific example, it’s been
argued by many Austrians that the housing bubble was in fact an illustration of Austrian
business cycle theory. In the years 2001 to 2004, the Fed really was somewhat loose with
credit, nominal interest rates were quite low, there was a housing bubble. People borrowed
a lot more money; they borrowed more than they should have. People thought the good
conditions, the low interest rates on mortgages, the easy availability of credit, and the rising
home prices would continue forever. That wasn’t the case. Eventually the bubble burst, these
trends were reversed, and we had a lot of long-term construction projects and housing
and mortgage decisions that turned out in retrospect to have been big mistakes. [Austrian Remedies] Austrians propose some different remedies
for stopping the problem in the first place. To stop the problem in the first place, Austrians
have argued we should either have a gold standard or tighter money or some kind of monetary
rule. The belief is it would then be harder to fool entrepreneurs because, in terms of
monetary conditions, it is believed they would be more stable or at least entrepreneurs would
know what to expect. [Explaining the Great Recession] Austrians and Keynesians give very different
readings of the 1920s and the subsequent Great Depression. According to a lot of Keynesians
and also monetarists, there’s some critical negative period between 1929 and 1932, and
if only we had stopped aggregate demand from contracting so radically, we would have had
a much stronger economy. The Austrian view is different. According to the Austrians there
was a lot of loose money and monetary expansion in the 1920s. Entrepreneurs took on projects
which were too ambitious, and once those longer-term projects are in place, Austrians often believe
there’s not any way you can back out of the jam you’re in, that a lot of those investments
will turn bad. Now on this question I’m not actually so much of an Austrian when it
comes to the Great Depression, but that’s one way of thinking about the difference between
the two points of view. Austrians locate the problem more in a kind of original sin of
inflation, which once it has been committed is very hard to get out of. Monetarists and Keynesians tend to think that
if you can boost aggregate demand or maintain aggregate demand at the proverbial last minute
that you’ll actually succeed in making the cycle a much less severe one. [Strengths and Weaknesses] Strengths and weaknesses of the Austrian theory:
What are they? I think one strength is that we do see a lot of credit bubbles in history,
and on average those credit bubbles are associated with periods of loose monetary policy. The
Austrian theory picks up some important part of this story. There is too much credit put
on the market, entrepreneurs are fooled, and this is one factor that contributes to making
for a recession or depression. But the Austrian theory also has some weaknesses. One is that
for a theory which stresses the virtues of the market, it assumes that entrepreneurs
are tricked rather easily. So say there’s some inflation or an increase in credit. An
entrepreneur doesn’t have to be genius to say, “Hey wait a minute, there’s been
some inflation. I saw this on Fox News; I read about it in the Wall Street Journal.
Maybe I shouldn’t overexpand my business. There’s some inflation. Maybe now is time
to just be a little more cautious.” It’s also the case that looking back in history,
a lot of business cycles are caused by monetary contractions and not by the previous expansion.
So there’s an awful lot of cases where the Austrian theory wouldn’t even potentially
apply.

NEWS: Alliance banks on SMEs as loans slow



long growth target for the new financial year is a 7% overall obviously the focus will be primarily on SME and consumer in an SME we will aim to get closer to 10% growth in terms of the long growth we had targeted you're right we had targeted 10% for FY 19 and we ended up at 6% the reason for the difference primarily was because in our commercial in corporate book the the longer man was substantially lower due to due to the effect of the slowdown especially of key large projects while at the same time actually we exceeded our goals in in SME for FY 2010 you to see headwinds although we do see that the momentum for SME stays very strong in terms of the overall outlook we note that the economy is a little bit more challenged right now and we see a little bit of headwinds we think we're going to continue to be able to grow the business and to serve our consumer and SMEs especially better we have a lot of developments in the pipeline to do that

Can the RBA Save the Economy?



the RBA has four chances left to save the economy let's have a look good evening everyone Laureen Heiser here and welcome to another episode of Heiser says I've got my evening coffee in hand and I thought we'd read this article from news.com I know it's news.com but I just flabbergasted at it at it so four bullets left to save the economy because you know the RBA cutting interest rates that extra you know even lower will just infuse everyone with confidence it's just completely ignore all the consumer confidence index a–'s and just how it's all been going you know let's ignore all of that because you know cutting right down to 0% interest that always you know encourages people to spend like maniacs doesn't it anyway for months the Reserve Bank has been doing everything it can to boost our flay flagging economy but it's about to run out of ammunition well I frankly I would say that it's already firing blanks I say you know the rapid shot it took then boom boom down at 1% it's gonna be firing blanks now it's gonna have less and less effect thank you psychologically I'd argue that if it's happening too quick it's gonna have a negative impact in a lot of consumers on the average person thinking let me know what you think about that you know do they study the psychological impact of these type of things when they're making these decisions you think they would wouldn't they so weird thing happened a little while ago a joint press appearance featuring the treasurer who is aiming for a surplus and the independent RBA governor who has been structured stroll ashing slashing alga the word stashing interest rates the appearance was seemingly designed to give the impression the pair are on the same page about how the economy was going they emphasized what they agreed on but behind the scenes it's not so clear they agree about the trajectory of the economy are we on the brink of sunny days and roses or disaster it's also not clear who needs to step in to save it if the latter scenario comes true okay because you know it's all our government can completely trol and just ear economy in the perfect direction fine tuned machine it's an emergent had come guys come on they emphasized that who boosts the RBA has been hinting that it wouldn't mind a bit of help in boosting the economy it's nearly out of ammunition while it's firing blanks at the moment and it wasn't hinting it was public statements that the government should be spending more on infrastructure to stimulate the economy that wasn't a hint the RBA cuts interest rates as we know and it cuts them zero point two five percentage points at a time when interest rates were at one point five percent it had six bullets left in June they fired a bullet and rate went down in one point two five in July they fired another one really quick and rates were down to one percent the lowest has ever been now let's just have a look let's just have a look here I will oh wait no sorry I'll merge over to this this is from the absorber tree of economic complexity and look at our main export partners well the largest amount of our exports are going to okay you can see you know the value of Australian economy that type of thing what we're exporting you know raw materials what we're importing but where they're going to and you know China 35% big part of our export economy and here's an article from Reuters that just came out when was it on the 15th of this month so China's second quarter GDP growth slows to 27 year low as trade war bites more stimulus seen so the Chinese economy is at a 27 year low and it will just see no they don't have a child in this one but it it's around 6.2 percent – here we go China's economic growth slowed to 6.2 percent in the second quarter its weakest pace in at least 27 years as demands at home and abroad vaulted in the face of mounting us betrayed pressure while more upbeat June factory output and retail sales offered signs of improvement some analysts caution the gains may not be sustainable and affect Beijing will continue to roll at more support measures in coming months China's trade partners and financial markets are closely watching the health of the world's second-largest economy as the sino US trade war gets longer and costlier fueling worries of a global recession Monday's growth data marked a loss of momentum for the economy from the first quarter 6.4 percent adding to expectations Beijing needed to do more to boost consumption and investment and restore business confidence the april-june pace in line with analysis analysts expectations was the slowest since the first quarter of 92 the earliest quarter data quarterly data on record China's growth could slow to 6 percent I could slow to 6% to 6.1 percent in the second half Sydney when an economist at Baba trusts forgive me for pronouncing that as wonderfully as I do that would test the lower end of Beijing 2019 a target range of 6 to 6.5 percent so if we have Chinese economy slowing do the trade negotiations shall we say between the United States and China and I'll link to that article you can see that here and China's currently 35 percent of our export market so is Japan so let's cut this was cut South Korea and we'll click here on China nope I can't bring them up this way it's not that easy and I'll do that later but we can hazarding a guess that the Chinese economy will be affected and affect and influence the its neighboring economies in Asia the fact that the United States is one of the biggest investors in Australia as well while it's not the biggest export market it invests a lot now economy too so coming back to this the idea that we are not going to be influenced by global factors and we're starting to feel feel that in our economy in the net you know those little for interest rate cuts can make a big as you know sufficient a difference to change the current of the world III I'm cynical guys I'm really cynical and the fact that there he is smiling together just makes me feel cynical so that's for left but monetary policy has right at zero and they have to move to weird new options this country has never seen before like negative rates of Quan all quantitative easing so negative interest rates on money printing it makes some sense that instead of using up your last conventional ammunition you might ask for a bit of assistance trésor Josh Frydenberg can use fiscal policy spending and tax cuts to boost the economy you think I know that the RBA is meant to be independent but they can give direction or advice to the Treasury you think that coordinated a bit better you'd hope you know boom tax cut to boom this boom that boom one interest rate cut not an interest rate cut also quick in conjunction doesn't improve confidence was that only me is it because I don't believe that anything costs you tells me on television anything I hear on the news I don't believe anything of it regarding property yeah how many people do anymore indeed RBA governor Phillip Lowe has been asking for a bit more of that consistency consistently in recent times using language for an RBA governor counts as strong you know well yeah I guess there are certain downsides from relying monetary policy as the country we shall be looking at other options to reduce unemployment mr. Louis said now remember the RBA believes or works on the ABS has unemployment statistics I much prefer the Roy Morgan method of driving a unemployment statistic and also we need to look at the under utilization combined with those marginally attached to the account of the workforce which gets closer to twenty percent really cuz you know all you need to do is work one hour a week within the reference period and boom you're employed one hour a week what's that what's you know what's the minimum wage some fifteen bucks $20 for anyone dollars for a barista or something one hour a week it's not even a son even allowable shift isn't it most jobs the minimum shift size is three hours so why are they doing that why they're doing one hour a week when you know minimum should be three hours someone please enlighten me in the comments I'd appreciate it one option is fiscal policy including spending on infrastructure he said in early July he said over recent times I've been drawing attention to the fact that as a nation there are options other than monetary easing putting us on a better path he repeated his call for infantry infrastructure spending and fiscal support well I have done a video looking at our population growth compared to our water supply growth population growth has actually grown thirteen times that of the growth to our water potable water storage capacity that's in that dams I'm not counting the desalination plants I'm counting the dams a week after the last comment he showed up at the press appearance which came following a meeting between the pair a meeting after that last comments he showed up with the pressed appearance which came out okay what happened at that meeting is hard to know but this week the treasurer was optimistic about the decision okay the meeting I had with the governor and senior treasurer of Treasury officials last week was very productive and constructive we discussed issues relating to the domestic economic outlook okay cool cool wonder if John Adams was in with some other economists within that maybe those that don't you know don't back up the one opinion you don't want it you don't want your teen you're a table full of yes man do you not a bit of variety there in your opinions I don't know I've been in some I did a stint did a stint in the public service I had a two-year contract I lasted a year then I got my registration and I got out as quick as I could it wasn't for me guys that may shock you so where does the RBA fit the RBA is part of government but independent of the elected officials the reason for keeping it in dependent is because it controls interest rates if politicians controlled interest rates they would promised rate cuts before every election who could resist well yeah I mean of course of course that would eventually cause inflation to zoom out of control because if you cut interest rates when the economy is strong the economy can overheat and start producing not just growth but also inflation well maybe parts of our economy were overheating due to insane population growth I mean from 2000 to 2018 a population in this country grew by 25% I mean what does that do to sectors of the economy you know justjust I think about that maybe we need to put the RBA in charge of immigration numbers actually that that's not such a ludicrous idea as I'm saying because that's gonna have an impact on the economy why not I mean be better than having it tied to politicians have an independent body doing it now maybe I'm being too naive guys let me know what you think about that idea that's what the RBA is doing every month when it fiddles with interest rates trying to make sure we get the healthiest possible economy without high inflation at the moment if inflation is just one point three percent which is very low so how they have to cut interest rates independent central banks are arguably one of the greatest inventions of the last century responsible for the moderate level of inflation we've enjoyed in the last two decades or for the rapid price rises of the 1970s their advice is valued because of their independence and it can be wise for the treasurer to take it I thought they were required for the treasurer to take it because of the BIS okay so I I'm nowhere near versed enough in this but I would challenge everyone to do a bit more investigation on that statement the press appearance the first appearance itself doesn't have much content but both the RBA governor and the Trojan treasurer said a few things they both announced they agreed the economy was growing which is literally true it grew 1.8% over the last year although they didn't mention how unimpressive that is well if you look at a purge EDP it's actually shrinking per capita out you know wealth we're getting poorer okay we both and how much of that of the you know growth in wealth is due to you know property growth or development or money invested into projects which have no you know the value could crash in this housing model we both agreed that the fundamentals of the Australian economy remains strong Australia is in the 28th year of consecutive economic growth mr. Rotenberg said I agree 100% with you the Australian economy is growing and the fundamentals are strong mr. Lowe said the statements are clearly designed to give the impression the Treasury and RBA aligned but they don't cut to the heart of the issue which is whether the Treasury should give things an extra boost the economy the RBA is doing what it can to make the economy grow and cut the unemployment rate to 4.5% don't worry just churn out another 1,000 or a hundred thousand one hour a week jobs then you'll cut it the Treasury meanwhile is hell-bent on getting a surplus that magical prize as you focus on his dream of a balanced budget the economy is sputtering along the latest unemployment figures show the economy out of just five hundred net new jobs in in June what wait what the latest unemployment figures showed show the economy added just five hundred net new jobs in June Australian for Australia's population Roseboro and 33 new Australians a month so we need to add 20,000 new jobs a month just to stall 500 is not enough 500 ok yeah ok I discovered something the other day too and I mentioned it in the video the last year 80 percent 8 out of 10 jobs came in the public sector that's a video the public sector will save us all and I'll put that as a title card in this video but I mean come on guys and stop pretending here that means your system of measuring it is insane I want them to see how many jobs are in the gig economy they need to break that off as a different statistic unemployment is at 5.2 percent and underemployment is 8.2 percent what is the the you know under utilization guys where's that under utilization and marginally attached percentage please share that with the public both well above the level they would make the labor market tight and lead to wage rises yeah there's a problem then with what you're measuring there's a strong argument that the RBA governor is right to tell the treasurer to pull his finger out after all it's only the treasurer who could spend money to make the economy surge is it is it or is it private sector and confidence you know do people have competence anymore to spend no no they don't they don't have confidence anymore you know peasant the consumer sentiment is below you know below 100 business sentiment is you know heading towards neutral jumped up for the election it's heading down people don't have confidence the government to be fair is doing something it has promised 1080 tax offset to middle-income earners which you can get after you do tax return that's a good example of how the government can get more money out into the economy and prop up spending it's also it has also made some vague promises to cut red tape for businesses but if you look at the data and you look and you you have to ask isn't enough the unemployment rate fell to 5 percent earlier this year as the next graph shows this was good but when we needed it to fall to 4.5% the awesome opposite and started going back up oh yeah let's train up guys if the unemployment rate keeps rising we will need to make sure that we do more to stop it and that might mean the treasurer has to listen to the independent central bank well what do you reckon guys what do you think what do you think is gonna happen you know four bullets left to save the economy I it's gonna have less and less impact how many people who are on struggle Street now you know going to go out and consume more they'll be buying more essentials they'll be buying more essentials they won't be buying other things they'll be paying down debt with the interest rate cuts sure will make it easier for businesses but then if there's less consumer spending we're already in a retail recession here in Australia consumer confidence is down business confidence is down China one of our biggest partners or our biggest export destination is that the lowest growth levels ever I mean sure what are we talking that's just exports what about the international students coming in as well it's propping up the education sector so sure yeah it's all going fine you know we've got the triangle of fail and Sydney where all these high-rises that were built buildings that were built all they're just one after the other is coming up with issues you know again and they can and again and it's all I don't know people buying it the people playing it what do normal people believe it believe this do they I I don't know maybe I spent too much time on the Internet guys that I don't I don't trust anything anymore a politician says or I'm getting older now you know I'm just getting older and more grumpy anyway guys like share and subscribe thanks for watching I'll see you later bye for now

2019 Report: Here is when the Real Estate Bubble will BURST AGAIN.



watching before Authority so do you guys have a memory that reaches back as far as 2008 2007 do you have a memory that reaches back that far of what happened in the real estate market and in with the economy and so on I do in May of 2006 I was making about forty to eighty thousand dollars a month in the real estate business May of 2009 I was homeless what I'm gonna do is I'm going to show you today what I learned over a 10-year period share with you what's getting ready to happen again with the real estate market and the economy I want to share with you some experience that I had to learn the hard way this slide cost me thirteen million dollars and everything I owns and everything I ever loved what we're looking at here is a chart from the feds out of st. Louis okay we're looking at the 20-city composite home price index first we're gonna look at it back April 2006 March 2007 okay as you can see that's right before the housing prices started coming down the crash was taking place thousands tens of thousands hundreds of thousands of families were losing everything that they had now during this slide here now if we take a look at the highest point that the market achieved during that period was right here the index was at 206 point six five two oh six point six five if we flash forward to today April of 2018 was 210 point six eight two rose six point six five to ten point six eight the real-estate bubble as of right now white run while you're listening to my voice is already larger than it was when it crashed last time the bubble is bigger and stronger well actually not stronger that's a lot I'm going to show you a number of charts here and reinforce what I'm showing you here but before we do that I'm going to show you a little quick video clip of this movie right here it's actually an intro to a movie called the beak the big short okay so take a look at that here Michael how are you really the whole housing market is propped up on these bad loans they will fail the housing market is rock solid that's a time on so Mike burry who gets his haircut Supercuts and doesn't wear shoes knows more than Alan Greenspan dr. Mike burry yes he does you know what I'm pissed off American people we're getting screwed by the big banks and I'm getting madder and madder it's unbelievable then this guy walks into my office and says there's some shady stuff going down by the banks we're having a big old party a few outsiders saw where no one else could the whole world economy might collapse I'm sure the world's banks have more descent of the green all right I hope you enjoyed that and I'm gonna go ahead and go on with the rest of the information here the statistics and facts what we're looking at here is housing supply of single-family homes as of to date okay if we look back at 2006 going into 2008 you can see that let's go back here to this chart and let's see where the worthy drop started taking place started taking place in March of 2007 the spring of post seven the market started plunging March o seven let's find March of O seven on here can you see here March of those seven would have been a this is o sevens right here in the center March of O seven would have been about right here okay now let's just say that's at the eight at the eight point okay now the reason why this is important is this is showing us the supply of homes on the market currently the supply of homes on the market the supply versus the demand is very low or pretty low okay it's let's just use this number eight that it is not back up to the number eight yet if we flash forward over here to today through 2010 2014 over to 2018 into about May of 2018 you can see that here's our supply we have new homes in the dark color and existing homes in the light this is the amount of homes of supply on the market it is how many months of supply eight months is what we're looking at for it to get to for it to crash the market two months ago it was at six and trending up and at six it was the highest point that it had been if we look over here at this it trended a long trend along and then went up when it was at six as you can see here Tama hit six it was on a straight up straight up course of flooding the market with product meaning as the amount of supply the number of months of supply of homes on the market increased that was flooding the market with supply to overrun the demand so as of March 2007 we were at the 8th and if you look over here again we are currently at the 6 which is here last time around when it 5 time it reached the 6 it was already too late it was already on the rise the market is behaving in some ways a little bit different this time because you have a split here of existing homes versus new homes ok however the new homes the supply of new homes versus existing homes there's a separation meaning that the supply of existing homes is very Neill there is only about three and a half months of supply of existing home on the market however there is a supply of new homes on the market of six months my experience in the real estate market says that most families and buyers of all types would prefer to buy a new home everything's brand new and everything works you don't have to worry about does the roof need fixing in a few years you don't have to worry about any of that all buyers in the average market preferred new homes so in my mind I would ignore this lower number and go with this higher number as to be in the effective real market which is out of six so what does this mean it means that we are already at the point of no return when it comes to the amount of supply the market is hot it is heated up the greed is in the air and the builders will continue to build and this number will continue to increase okay now why is it going to increase and why is the bubble going to expand more well if you take a look at what just happened recently the Senate passes the rollback of banking rules enacted after the financial crafts crisis remember the dodd-frank bill which some of you might not remember the name or whatever but they were put on all these new regulations on the banks to keep this bubble from ever happening again in this burst from ever happening again well the Senate within the last 30 days has rolled back those banking rules enacted after the last financial crisis meaning that they have taken these stops off of lending for the most part okay there's another article Trump sighs the biggest rollback of Bank rules since the financial crisis it is law now I've got the law the bill and the law actually uh I'll show it to you by the end of this video real quick and give you a link to it so you can read it if you want to so they've removed the stops why did they remove the stops because they have a plan and they know that you can't keep blowing up a bubble and it not pop at some point and they have a timeline for that pop and they know when they want it to pop and part of that game is removing the dodd-frank rules so that that way the banks can lend more money and blow the balloon up a little bit bigger as you see here this was from Forbes that says with robach Frank Dodd is now officially a dud this is a little article here that shows you a little peek into it loan originators no longer must have skin in the game says in the Frank dot act Congress directed the federal financial agencies to adopt risk retention rules meaning that each morning mortgage lender out there that made a loan they had to retain something like 10% of those loans honed their in their accounts they meaning they were the lender so that if the loans went bad they would get hurt as well well with the rollback of the dodd-frank act the lenders that write these loans have no risk anymore you noticed it's uh that if you have no risk you might as a loan officer knowing two more loans that you write and the more that you originate the more money you're gonna make typically not everyone is affected but generally majority is affected in risk and excuse me uh greed takes over and it causes them to start originating loans that are sketchy and even more sketchy and more sketchy Gris Gris Gris you know more money more bigger sales more closings and to it goes pop this is something I thought was kind of interesting here I wanted to read to you and show you it says that most or good portion of the laws from the rollback of the dodd-frank will not take place until January 1st 2019 well that's only about five months away but by within five months all of the changes for dodd-frank will be in effect and the money will be pouring out of the boot like some a flipped it upside down if we take a look at the real increase in price of shelter many homes shelter ninety nine to twenty eighteen and we cut out the flat part means excuse me the cut out this session which represented the 2008 collapse you will notice before the collapse and we recovered might call it recovery after the collapse where we were already at that recovery point before 2015 and have continued higher so the increase in price of shelter meaning that homes are since 2015 have already back on trend for the increase overall for the last 20 30 years does that make sense well here we have the case-shiller real ten City home price index that will go over okay so it's chart is very similar to the previous one there you can see that it looks at the history back past 2000 and the trend that was going on which is an upward trend and that as of 2015 we had already flattened that trend out now here in the middle we have the huge rise and then the crash and then back up and by 2015 we were back up to the average trend of increased you might call it inflation if you like and continued on to this point here let's take a look at this is the one-year constant maturity treasuring rate this is basically interest rates this goes back to to 2008 okay and on or to today now prior to 2008 these interest rates were actually higher than this as you can see it kind of looks like it's going higher but what they did was they after the crash they brought the rates basically to the bottom to almost near 0% interest on a loan and of course if you had savings in the bank you got no interest or a tiny tiny bit which is pretty much still case today although that's went up some so now we we were I believe this was about 4% somewheres round up in there okay back in 2000 say six Wow around 4% and then it came down from there with the crash then we're back up to about two and three cool excuse me two ins 2.4 I would say about 2.4 but that was us of about May June right in there and now we're in July so we're on a pier about two and a half okay now as interest rates rise this is a another thing that will cause the market to burst if interest rates were going down it would cause maybe the market to continue a bit longer but rates are going up along with we were talking about inventory right how all the inventories inventory is doing let's look at this this this is the 10 year ten year Treasury constant maturity right okay let's see looking back it starts around the year 2014 and they started trending up they continued to hold it way down load way way low through 2016 and then they've started trending back up you can see this goes on the to almost today's date now that today's date and this trend up looks like it's going to likely continue trending right on that matter of fact I'm sure will for the foreseeable next one to two years I would say okay this is the unemployment rate need to look at another factor in what happens during this market that we're dealing with okay if we go back to 2007 okay right in here 2007 construction started laying off around May of 2007 build jobs started laying off therefore the housing market pretty much runs the economy and at this point the unemployment rate shot way up says ten percent here was the peak but I highly suspect that realistically the true number was probably around the 30 percent range but this it says civilian unemployment rate this only takes into account people that do unemployment claims and so on so the actual true true number of people that were unemployed is way higher or was way higher than ten percent so from the time of the crash now 207 this is a time of peak unemployment so 9 October of oh nine it's about two and a half years so we had a complete everybody's a lot of people losing their jobs unless you work for the government in about two and a half years they had a huge layoff and then it started inching its way back okay where they claim that we're at now which is down around 4% okay which again is a false low number because it doesn't take it only is a portion of the picture if you were to say only 4% of the people in the United States are not working that would be absolute fallacy but the reason for showing you this is so that you can see what's going to happen and remember what's going to happen as soon as this market pops okay a lot of people don't know that work just like it was last time okay this is kind of a chart kind of shows the rise and fall okay kind of looks at it as a roller coaster ride here it says as you're moving up you're coming up in the rise of the real estate markets you're the average person we're gonna talk about what the average person sees it's optimism there's a lot of jobs things are going good they're making more money at their job they're getting into a house for the first time or maybe you're upgrading to a new house a better house you're getting to the point of excitement and thrill especially if they're homeownership because the value is went way up right and then there's you for you this is the point of maximum financial risk okay because the value has it way up but yet everything else is turning and going the other direction and the value will follow because it starts gonna start to go down and I'm pulling rates gonna start to go up the interest rates are going up and anxiety – now fear desperation panic capitulation capitulation is when you give up and either you stop making your payments on your house you give up on the investments that you had and bail out and there are a group of people that are waiting for these capitulations okay they called us more people the people that don't buy right now you don't buy real estate right now when everybody else is buying you sell when everybody else is selling or particularly when they capitulate that's when you buy this point in the market when everybody else is just absolutely depressed scared to death and don't want to do that again that's when you buy because soon thereafter they'll start forgetting they lose that memory and there will be hope at some relief and optimism and even excitement thrill and euphoria once again the market has repeated itself over and over and over and will do so again in the very near future you may be asking yourself whoa whence the best time what should I do if you're if you have a piece of real estate right now that you want to sell any time in the next let's say seven years now it's the time to have it on the market not next week not next month not don't hold on cuz it's gonna go up a little bit more don't be greedy don't be stupid sell it now put it on the market get a realtor in your house or put it on the market yourself I want to do that I'd get a in there you've made a ton of profit potentially give up a little bit of it to a realtor and get that sucker sold and do it immediately not next month not next week not next year don't be greedy don't be stupid in it now some of you may wonder what the best kind of real estate to buy is well let's just focus on the average person the average little guy the best real estate to buy for the average little guy is a four flex because you can finance a four flex with a regular residential loan just like you buy your house with but you are splittin the risk of your home purchase with four other people excuse me with three other people or three other couples and those three other couples are gonna make your house payments and you're gonna get your house payment for free or near free and they're gonna pay for it because even in a down market or a nut market there are always people looking to rents and yeah it does fluctuate up and down but it's not as dramatic like right now because the a lot of people were buying there's a little bit less renters but it still is a good market you buy this building the same way you would buy anything you have in your financial plan to charge and rent this unit out this unit out and this unit out and you live in this one on the end that has the prettiest view okay and then these three people who are renters and weren't smart enough didn't watch my video they will pay for the whole thing while you get to live for virtually for Neil – nothing you may even make a profit and if they're paying for your place you are making a profit every dollar you don't have to pay for is important and especially if you were a first-time buyer or young people this is perfect for you okay because it's an easy investment that as long as you don't buy it at the top of the market now is not the time to buy this this you're gonna wait about two years on and then you're gonna buy one at the end of the market you're gonna save you money get your credit in order do everything right for the next two years and then you're gonna buy one of these guys and say well I don't really like when that looks well how about this one different style maybe don't like that one maybe you like well I had another couple of photos will appear let's see if this is it maybe not yeah I have another one pulled up here for you it's just more modern look there are all kinds of different styles of them out there from high modern and preferably I would buy something that looked like the future that's just me okay so maybe not this not of this would be bad because this would be good but I would try to get better which it's something that would maybe would still look like the future instead of the past okay so that's some additional advice for you there now here is the bill itself I'll put the link to this if you want to read this and avoid you slapped to death but there is some good information in there that you might want in certain situations in a couple of other future videos on the real estate market actually I'm going to discuss this article payment systems and privacy often elite below so you can go read it is talking about the them taking away cash and the reasons why we should be scared and allow them to take away cash and then I'm going to talk to you about what is a never broke irrevocable trust so that you won't have to go through losing everything that you had art worked for for twenty thirty years because of some bad situations to happen I can help anyone if you own anything even down to a car I can show you how to protect it if you need my videos please subscribe and you'll get more logic before Authority watching before Authority

Investment Fundamentals #1 – Take personal responsibility



well it is my pleasure to welcome you along to a new themed week here on property tribes it's called investment fundamentals week and who better to join me than Graham Rowan investment consultant and Graham so great to have your input for this week you're going to be here the whole week and actually I have to thank you for coming up with our topics and I think you know a good place to start is to say that to build a solid investment portfolio whichever entity you're building that in whether it be property or shares and you've got to get the fundamentals in place and that's really what this week is all about isn't it yeah so I'm delighted to be here Vanessa and yeah I think it's it's one of the reasons I run you know the investor code myself is to try and help people to put some kind of plan and structure together for how they're gonna build that wealth and how they're gonna protect their wealth because let's be honest you don't learn this stuff in school or university they don't teach it in the workplace and despite loads and loads of new regulations all the time you never hear anyone from government or the FCA saying hey let's do something about financial education so yeah you've got to do it yourself absolutely now the starting point for this week is actually your story because that's really going to guide the week of how you became I guess financially aware and you know worked yourself towards your own financial freedom so perhaps if we could start off by saying you know give us your backstory and how it triggered that desire to start taking responsibility for your financial future yes certainly I guess you know people just need to get a box of Kleenex ready so that when I get to the appropriate point you know that they're prepared but for me I had a great job in the corporate sector I I was a director of a big American company called Texas Instruments and we were selling multimillion-dollar billing systems to telecoms companies all around the world so I'd be jetting off all over the place and you know the good news is I was making a lot of money but I really didn't have that at the time or frankly the inclination to manage it from a sort of investment viewpoint so one of my colleagues said why don't you get yourself a professional wealth manager like I have southern seems like good idea so when met them they came up with this fancy plan that said my freedom figure was 2.4 million pounds and this is how they were gonna get me there and they put my life savings into something called a Nasdaq which I have to say at the time seemed like a great idea because every morning I would wake up two or three thousand dollars richer than when I went to bed the night before and every June I'd go along for my annual valuation with these guys and the figures just went up and up and up then we got to June 2004 at the sky and computer systems didn't crash but you know the Nasdaq had gone down about 10 percent so I said hey guys you know should we take some money off the table and do something else and they said don't be such a wimp can't you recognize a minor correction in a raging bull market when you see one we're staying in ok you know best I went away to my busy lifestyle again came back in June of 2001 and it had crashed and burned and they'd lost me a hundred and fifty one thousand six hundred pounds in 18 months ouch and then they take me into a little side room and say unfortunately mr. Rowan these losses take your net worth below the level at which we look after clients so I'm afraid we're gonna have to let you go so I was fired by my own wealth manager because of the losses they had made on my portfolio so you know I was angry I was confused I was embarrassed had to go and tell my wife Daphne that we'd lost a huge chunk of our life savings and when I kind of reflected and processed a bit I thought you know it's easy to be angry with those guys but in truth it was my fault because I haven't just delegated my wealth management to these guys had abdicated it and just gone off on my merry way and at the lesson I learned expensively and painfully was that nobody else cares about your financial future you are not top of their agenda I don't care smart they are how many advisers you've got accountants IFAs none of them have got you at the top of their agenda the only person that has you at the top of their agenda is staring back at you in the bathroom mirror each day the biggest message I need to get across to people is that no one else cares you've got to take ownership even if you have a team around you you've got to be the orchestra leader absolutely as we always say on property tribes similar to yourself the best person to look after your money is the person that you see in the mirror every morning as you said and I guess what this week you're all about then miss cryptogram is that you had to go through that horrendous financial pain to have this wake-up call and really we're now giving the wake-up call using I guess your hindsight for other people's foresight well I hope so I think the hard part is that you know for me I'd gone through the pain then it became an emotional decision not just a logical when I was angry with myself and I think what I want to try and convey to people is that you know if you're not where you want to be at this stage in your life don't look for other scapegoats don't look don't blame the government don't blame the weather or the economy you know it's down to you you've got to take ownership and if you can do that without incurring that sort of losses and the pain I had to because you're watching this on properly tribe that's great you know you're so far ahead of where I was and you can avoid the pain and the grief and the cost that I had to go through absolutely and the sooner that people start to take responsibility for their own financial situation than this you know they've got a longer time to actually enjoy the benefits well that's right I mean what we're going to go through and the rest of this week is the specifics of how you go about this but I think it's important to just emphasize that there has to be this decision you know it's a little bit like you hear people saying about wanting to lose weight or something that's all well there are also full of good intentions but unless you really really really feel it and you're one that and you've got a strong reason why you want to make this happen you're gonna just let it all slide and life gets in the way you'll be too busy doing a B and C so my plea to people watching us is is to really sort of look in the mirror make an emotional decision that you're gonna take ownership and then you will take action on the stuff we'll cover in the rest of the week I think it's really about making a commitment to yourself and to becoming educated which indeed is the topic of our next video and then you know just taking sustained and intelligent action on a regular basis and that's really how people are going to build a kind of solid foundation for their future wealth no absolutely it puts me in mind of in one of my favourites of mentors was the the late Jim Rohn and yeah one of the things he used to say was that you know the difference between success and failure is small decisions you know repeated each day and if you make the right decisions over a period of time you'll see a phenomenal result if you make the wrong decisions over a period of time you get a very different outcome so it's really all about just those little things you do every day that are furthering your your whole process towards financial independence and once you take that decision and you start doing these little steps day-in day-out for weeks months and years you'll be amazed at how you can transform your financial circumstances and indeed people do have to take a long-term view and there's not really any get-rich-quick unless you win the lottery or something of that nature so people have to have a very long event horizon yeah I think unless you're gonna marry it divorce it or inherit it then you've got to go about creating and it's gonna take a long time but I tell you what you know what once you start the process you know you'll see some results quite quickly and I always tell people to celebrate those little results you it might it might be the first thousand pounds that you save or something but just you know celebrate those baby steps along the way and it they become habits and once they become habits you know then you're on the road you're on the journey and the rest will start to happen and even if you make the occasional mistake within that context of owning your financial future and taking steps every day it doesn't matter you know you will get there it really is a case of kind of like almost like a switch being flicked where somebody just has to have that realization that they now to take responsibility and just you know start moving forward and almost that kind of switch flicking on is the most important part and then you're away that's right and then that just gets reinforced with all the other actions and all the other topics we're going to cover for the rest of the week well I hope that has whet your appetite for the upcoming week of content that we are hosting in association with Graham Rowan of elite investor club I've got lots more really great stuff to come it's going to delve deeper and deeper into this topic of investment fundamentals and I guess Graham it doesn't matter what level of knowledge people have already there's good whether they're an absolute beginner or somebody very experienced we hope there's going to be something for them within the week no absolutely and I think you know that the fundamentals as the name implies are always true and so it doesn't matter where you are on the journey it really helps and it really pays to take a fresh look and yeah we all have our biases that some people are only in the property some are only into the stock market I want to try and broaden people's thinking a bit because if you want real firm foundations for your wealth you've got to understand the whole marketplace all the opportunities are open to you and you've got to understand you know how you're going to build wealth across a whole range of different assets absolutely so that's what we're going to be looking at for the rest of the week if you're watching this video on YouTube I invite you to hit the subscribe button and if you want to join our conversation and also where Graham will be interacting please click across to property tribes comm but stay tuned as investment fundamental week continues