Betty Liu on market impacts from the coronavirus outbreak | Money in :60 | GZERO Media


I’m Betty Liu with your Money In 60 Seconds. So, the impact of the virus has pretty much been felt in the global markets. We’re now back up to around record territory, erasing most of the losses. Initially when US officials reported the second virus outbreak in the US, the markets fell. And in fact, the S&P fell the most in three months. So, in the early 2000s, a SARS outbreak actually hit the markets even more. We saw the S&P fall 13 percent based on the outbreak. But economists say it’s really not an apples to apples comparison because at the time when SARS was happening, we were in a very different economic time. That’s your Money In 60 Seconds.

How I Turned Thousands into Millions in the Stock Market


– So I would prefer to have zero positions scanning the whole penny
stock battleground. Looking for a good play where
the odds are on my side. (upbeat music) – You started out with $12,000 roughly. Many of the attendees might have that or have less. So you did it with that
12,000 back in ’98. Do you think it’s feasible
today to start out with that small account and repeat or similar success to what you had? – Yeah I think it’s possible and I think that it is
doable if you study, if you have the right mentality– – And if you had a small
account would you do the same thing again? – I would do the exact same thing. I you know if god forbid I lost all my money I would go back to the beginning and it actually
be a good challenge. I would live off ramen, I’d live in a box. I would only miss
air-conditioning and fast wifi. Those are two things I
can’t live without right now but aside from that you
have so much opportunity right now with the bull market and possibly a bear market
in the next few years. There’s gonna be so much volatility. The only question is are
you prepared because sadly too many people are unprepared. Even if there’s a perfect play, they haven’t studied the past so for me I’m basically a glorified history teacher. I have 6,000 video lessons
going back over 10 years now. I show all my trades
going back 20 plus years. Why is something from seven years ago still relevant today? Because again these patterns repeat. And some of you guys– – Sometimes it’s the same tickers. – Same tickers, same
sectors, same patterns. – Five years later it
can be the same ticker. – Cause again it’s greed
it comes down to the media hyping stuff up. The media just wants maximum clicks. So if you start thinking in terms of, not necessarily fake news, but just being cynical with your approach to media and not necessarily believing it. They’re just gonna create click-bait so anything they talk about is gonna be exaggerated. And if you start thinking oh
this article is exaggerated this article is exaggerated
let me see how it affects theses stocks. Or again you have all these idiots who are interested in buying the one you know (mumbles) not doing the research, not realizing that the
company has no cash. And if the stock does go up they’re gonna do a financing so it’s gonna crash. So a lot of people are
just looking at penny stocks the wrong way. And you can take advantage of that by looking at it the right
way and being meticulous. – So I think the number one reason and again maybe many here
I’ve been there before. I think the number one
reason low price stocks get such a bad rap, for
lack of a better term, is people buy that and then they become the bag holder. They buy the idea lots of
times your up your up 50, 100 percent and then it
crashes the next day your red. So if you are a bag
holder we won’t ask you to raise your hand. If you’re out there your holding– – Raise your hand if you ever had a big (mumbles) and you didn’t take it. – Okay so if you– – It’s okay be proud we’re
all in this together. – If you are a bag holder in a penny stock what should you do tomorrow morning? – So for me if I ever have
any big loss well you know I usually don’t because
I follow rule number one and cut losses quickly but I’m human I might make a mistake. I might slip. I’m pretty clumsy and be
in a coma for two weeks and then wake up to a big loss. I would still cut that loss immediately because it’s not just about that loss. It’s not about the money. It’s the mentality okay . If you have to think
of losses like cancer. And you need to cut
that shit out of you as soon as possible before
it infects the rest of your body or your life. Big losses kill your confidence. They kill your account. And while your sitting
on this one loss you know stewing about it like
miserable you might miss a good opportunity because your so focused on something that doesn’t have good odds. For me sometimes the best
trade is no trade, right? So I don’t need to trade all the time. I’m always looking for a good trade. So I would prefer to have zero positions scanning the whole
penny stock battleground looking for a good play where the odds are on my side. If your in a play doesn’t
matter even if this stock is gonna come back. Your mind set is so messed up with that you are not in control anymore. You need to recognize that and you need to get out it’s like a bad breakup, right. Like you have a bad breakup you don’t ask the next person you see
“hey will you marry me?”. No your mind-set is
all messed up after the bad break-up you need to calm down. You need to go to Vegas. Go have fun for a little bit. (laughing) – But yeah that’s one of
the biggest things I think so many you know that’s why penny stocks get a bad rap. People over stay they
have that long term loss. And then it just gobbles
up your buying power. I mean if your down
40% on some penny stock when the next good one
comes along you got a few hundred dollars of buying
power because your all in this grinder that just keeps going lower. And don’t discount the
fact of that mental cap. Hey we’ve all been there. You open up that brokerage
account and your like “god damn it there’s that
big red number again”. Get rid of that . The sooner you end that bad relationship the sooner– – I can make a food analogy. It’s like a heavy thanksgiving dinner. When you have the turkey. You have the stuffing. You have the pumpkin pie. You had another pumpkin
pie because it’s delicious. You have the cheesy bread. And you just feel like
death like you gotta go to the bathroom and
you need to let it out. You don’t want that you don’t want that meal you know soaking you down
for all of December, right? You gotta go to the bathroom get it out and look
forward to the next day. Go to the gym. – I love your analogies, Tim. That one was a (mumbles). – That worked? – Who liked that analogy? – And you got that one yeah! – That one worked that
was one of the best. – Oh what ever that’s one of the worst. – Get out of here. (laughing) – I have to make a lot of analogies because you know I’m self taught. So I taught myself through thinking about penny stocks like these
real world examples. And I mean it exists, right. I feel like crap after
thanksgiving dinner. It’s delicious but I fell like crap and I have to let it out. (upbeat music) Hey Tim Sykes millionaire
mentor and trader. Thank you for watching my videos. I hope that they help you. I want to share everything that
I’ve learned over the years. You can check out more
videos right over there. And also click subscribe
so that you can watch all of these videos, get that knowledge, and become my next millionaire student.

Adapting With the Market: My Favorite Pattern Right Now


– [Tim] Good morning, Tim Sykes here. I guess it’s morning when I post this. It’s the middle of the
night when I’m filming this, and the answer is no, I don’t
sleep as much as I should because there’s so much
of information to get out, and I feel like it’s my job to update you when, you know, patterns adapt. As you might know, if you’ve been watching my video lessons for the past few months, short selling, I think, has
gotten very, very dangerous. The risk/reward is great in a bad way, not that it’s great in an amazing way. There’s great risks to shorting compared to the potential reward. So I don’t really short that much anymore. With going longs, I really
like morning dip buys, but we haven’t really seen
any true panics lately. So my third pattern that I
really like is first green days. You know, LTUM had
obviously a few up days, but then a red day and
it consolidated, and then this first big green day
was a breakout to new highs, and a lot of people who just
memorized charts, they say wow, big first green day,
look at the record volume. Let’s buy that and hold overnight, and that’s exactly what I did. The next morning, I was not rewarded. It actually would have paid
to sell into the close. I still made some money,
but I would’ve made more had I sold into the
close the night before. This did not gap up or morning
spike the way I wanted. So RAKR on Wednesday, very nice breakout. A little over extended. You can see all the little green candles, but really the first big green day, and more importantly a breakout. This was the first day on
Wednesday that it broke the previous highs here at 28 cents, but I was buying it at 39. So I recognized that I’m buying this late, but at the same time we see
a lot of these stocks run up. Recently CYDY had a similar
breakout right here, and then the very next
day it was a 30, 40% gain. So there are some precedence. BLOZF also had a breakout right
here over the previous high, and then the next day was a huge breakout. So RAKR, some people were asking why am I buying it at 39. It’s so over extended. I mean just look at CYDY
and BLOZF as recent examples where the first big green day breakout over the previous highs lead
to another big green day, but at the same time I
did not hold it overnight because I recognized that
LTUM didn’t work overnight, and there’s also probably
like a dozen examples if I really wanted to get into it of recent first green day OTC
plays that did not gap up, that did not morning spike the next day, and in fact they actually
tanked the next day where you had to get out right at the open to make a small gain or a small loss, but pretty much all of
them had morning panics, and some people say oh, Tim, you create the
morning panic when you sell. Well, RAKR, I did not hold overnight, and look it was the same
exact morning panic. So a lot of people have all
of these conspiracy theories that I am in control of this whole market. Whether I trade it or not,
the patterns are gonna work. That’s kind of the cool thing here. And no, I did not hold RAKR overnight. I sold it a little too
soon here around 43, 44. It actually went all the way to 46, and if you did manage to hold overnight, you could have theoretically gotten out at 48, 47, 46, 45, 44 all of which would have been better than my sell here in the 43s, but at the same time I didn’t
wanna take the overnight risk, and again, when I trade
with such a small account, it’s not even just trading for profits, it’s also trading in order to teach. So I’m proud that when
I saw LTUM not gap up or morning spike into it’s first green day when it frankly should’ve, I was glad to use that
lesson and adapt on RAKR, and I got a pretty good exit. Like I said though, obviously the exit could have been better had I held a little longer, but I usually error on
the side of caution, and now that brings me
now on a play on Thursday, KWBT where I made a few hundred bucks, exact, exact, exact kind of uptrend. Not an exact science, but the
same kind of price action. Here’s KWBT, big spike,
and it actually dipped, but there was a nice little bounce, and a little breakout here above 415, was the late day breakout, and KWBT, I mean, if you
look back a 100 days, it doesn’t really
matter, but even 50 days, it had one big green day, but
the next day was solidly red. This a nice first green
day, but as you can see from all the times that
it usually has green days, the candle, it doesn’t close at its highs. So that’s what this little
difference in the candle is. If it closed right at its highs, it would’ve been a full candle. Same thing with this green day
back here on December 12th. Green day on January 9th,
green day on January 10th, green day on January 13th,
and green day on January 16th. None of them! So we got one, two, three,
four, five, six, seven examples of green days, and the stock
does not close at its highs! So now, not only am I thinking, okay, I’m not sure if I wanna hold
this kind of play over night because the trend as been better to sell into the market close, but then also do I really wanna sell
right at the market close because seven different examples,
it did not even get there. It did not even finish high. So very speculative stock,
and I specifically said this. I’m not sure if I was
gonna hold it overnight, but it hit my goals. I made roughly over 10%, that
was the bottom of my goals, and even if it had been like
9% or 8%, some people are like okay, so you have to wait
for your goals to get hit, then you sell, it was
not acting perfectly, and when I, like I said, this
is not a perfect science, but I have expectations given
the fact that this stock has failed on first green day seven times they failed to hold their
gains into the close because I don’t know if the
market makers are pushing it or promoters are pumping it, or maybe just some existing shareholders are selling into the close,
whatever the case may be, it’s not finishing that strong, and it does not have a
history of strong second days. Although, some people will
say well, why even trade it? Massive volume, massive volume breakout. So does somebody know something? Is there gonna be news on Friday? Is there gonna be news over the weekend? I have no idea, but for me, buying with the intent
of holding overnight, but clearly commenting that I was not sure if I was gonna hold it overnight, but I wanted to give it a chance because if big first green
day here with record volume, like yeah, it has failed seven times, but all of that volume on
all seven times added up doesn’t even match one
day’s of volume here, or maybe it’s similar, but my point is is that this is huge, massive volume. This is not like a 10 or 20% increase. This thing traded roughly triple more then it has been recently trading. So there were a lot of buyers. So I sold it because,
again, it hit my goals, and even if it hadn’t,
I would have sold it close to hitting my goals just to play it safe
overnight, you never know. And then also I can always re-buy it back. That’s the beauty of trading. With short selling, this
is another bad thing with short selling, sometimes
you go days or weeks trying to find shares to
short of some pump and dump, and you finally find shares to short, and it might not be the right time, and you might start getting squeezed, but you don’t really want to sell, or you don’t wanna buy
to cover your short, you don’t wanna exit your position because you might not be
able to get short again, but with a play like
KWBT, I could buy again if does start running. It still finished up 40%
on the day, 40% plus. So if it looks like it’s gonna
have another 20, 30, 40%, I can just re-buy. That’s the beauty of buying, and that is the beauty of
playing it safe overnight. So I am playing it safe
overnight on all of these plays based on recent evidence. So if you understand what I’m saying, leave a comment underneath
this video saying I will base my trades off recent evidence. ‘Cause that’s what it is. I’m trying to judge the market. I’m trying to judge this pattern. I’m trying to be less stressful. I’m in California right now. So my time zones are all whacked. I really hate getting
up at 5:00, 6:00 a.m. I’m just not a morning guy. I’m filming this in
the middle of the night when I should be asleep. So I’ma take it as stress free as I can or minimize the stress (air whooshes)
as much as I can, and that involves for me right now selling before the close
on the first green day, and again, all because of
all these recent examples and all this evidence. So if you understand it,
leave a comment underneath. I’m curious to see who understands this. I’ll see you in the chatroom, thank you.

Why It’s So Hard to Beat the Market P1 | Common Sense Investing with Ben Felix


Active fund managers want earn better returns
than the market, while taking less risk. I’ve talked about the shift toward index
funds in Canada and the U.S., and how the prolonged poor performance of active funds
is a driving force of that shift. While it seems logical that fund managers,
some of the smartest, highest paid, and best equipped people on the planet, should be able
to use their resources to create a favourable result for investors, the data simply does
not support their ability to do so. On average, active fund managers consistently
underperform the market. If these people are so smart… why is it not showing up in returns? I’m Ben Felix, Associate Portfolio Manager
at PWL Capital. In part 1 of this two-part episode of Common
Sense Investing, I’m going to tell you some of the reasons why it’s so hard for active
managers to beat the market. William Sharpe’s 1991 paper The Arithmetic
of Active Management, published in the Financial Analyst’s Journal, is a great starting point
in explaining the challenge that active managers face. It’s pretty simple. Actively managed funds, on average, have significantly
higher fees than passively managed funds. Quick side note: Canadian mutual funds have
some of the highest fund fees in the world, with an average of 2.35%. Contrast that with the fact that you could
build a couch potato ETF portfolio for as low as 0.16%. So back to William Sharpe. His 1991 paper said: Before costs, the return
on the average actively managed dollar will equal the return on the average passively
managed dollar. This makes perfect sense because there is
one global market, and, in aggregate, all passive and active funds are investing in
that same market. Sharpe went on to say that after costs, the
return on the average actively managed dollar will be less than the return on the average
passively managed dollar – same returns before fees, but lower returns after fees due to
higher fees. If fees were not in the picture, you might
expect about half of active managers to be able to beat the market. Add fees in, and that number drops to less
than half at best. Ok, so the average active manager is unlikely
to beat the market in a given year due to fees. But who’s going to hire an average active
manager? The idea of manager skill has been the subject
of a lot of research. In a 1997 paper published in the Journal of
Finance, Mark Carhart explained that investment expenses and exposure to certain risks almost
completely explain persistence in equity mutual funds returns. So, if there’s little to no evidence of managers skill it means that the managers who have done well may have just been lucky
in the past. Finding the manager who has done well in the
past and will continue to do well is a gamble, not a guarantee. Are they skilled, or are you giving your money
to someone who has been lucky? An important distinction here is that when
we are talking about skill, we only care about relative skill. Any mutual fund manager is likely to be intelligent,
well-read, and competent, but they need to be more intelligent, well-read, and competent
than the other manager on the other side of the trades that they’re making. Any time a manager sells a stock that they
think will do poorly, another manager is buying it because they think it will do well. Only one of them will be right. The investment management industry is full
of PhDs, CFA charterholders, and MBAs. Currently, most of the world’s stocks are
owned by institutions rather than individuals. Most trades are a bet between two highly skilled
professionsls. The level of competition is exceptional. As more and more skilled managers enter the
active management business, luck becomes increasingly important as a determinant of their success. Supporting this idea, in a 2013 paper, Pastor,
Stambaugh, and Taylor found that the increasing size of the actively managed fund industry
has a negative impact on active funds’ performance. More skilled competition is making it increasingly
challenging to generate higher returns. Let’s say that you do find a skilled manager. They have had a few good years, but you can
tell that they are skilled rather than lucky. So… You invest your money in their fund. So do a lot of other people, because the performance
is good. Fairly quickly, the fund will grow to a point
where the manager’s skill becomes less useful, or even useless, because there is so much
money that needs to be invested. It’s one thing for a skilled manager to
find a few good stocks to invest a few million dollars in, but if a fund has a few billion
dollars to invest, the manager may have trouble being different from the market. When that happens, the investors in that fund
end up with a really expensive index fund, known as a closet index fund. The math just doesn’t work out
for the average active manager, and finding a manager that will be consistently above
average is extremely difficult in today’s increasingly competitive environment. Even if a manager is successful in generating
higher returns, their success will be their own downfall. In my next video, I will be talking about
one more reason that causes many actively managed funds to underperform. My name is Ben Felix of PWL Capital and this
is Common Sense Investing. I’ll be talking about this and many other
common sense investing topics in this series, so subscribe and click the bell for updates. I’d also love to hear from you as to what
topics you’d like me to cover.

Stock Market and Political Predictions for 2020 (w/ Jason Trennert & Vincent Catalano)


VINCENT CATALANO: Jason, welcome to Real Vision. JASON TRENNERT: Thank you for having me. VINCENT CATALANO: Tell us a little bit about
Strategas, besides the fact of the name, and get into the definition that came from it,
Strategas is what? JASON TRENNERT: Yeah, so Strategas. We’re a research firm that focuses on macro-economic
research, economics, policy, technical analysis, fixed income strategy, and it’s also a broker
dealer. In addition to research analysts, we also
have sales traders, and institutional salesman. Basically what we do is we write reports on
these big picture things. We publish them and then we travel around
the country and the world to tell institutional investors what we’re thinking. VINCENT CATALANO: That’s fantastic. You are, your role is? JASON TRENNERT: I’m the chairman of the company
and also the chief investment strategist. I mainly focused on the equity markets, but
try to also pull everything together. VINCENT CATALANO: One of the founders? JASON TRENNERT: One of the founders, that’s
right. I started in 2006. I had worked at Heiman for about 15 years
at a place called ISI Group from ’91 to 2006. Then my partners Nick Bohnsack, and Don Rissmiller,
they joined me and we started Strategas in 2006. VINCENT CATALANO: That’s fabulous. Want to start off talking about the markets,
overall, the equity markets. One of the things that stood out to me and
key reason to discuss with you today is earlier in this year on CNBC, one of the hosts there
was pressing you and Rich Bernstein. Where’s the market going to go? What’s the price going to be at? Where are we going to end up? That thing and Rich deferred, demurred. You said, “All right, I’ll give you a–“,
and you gave a number. The number was, I think for the S&P, which
was at the time around 2600 or something like that, you said in the neighborhood of like,
3000. In fact, you gave a specific number, 3005. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah. Oh, wow. That implies a certain expertise I don’t have
but at least I was bullish, at least that was on the right direction. VINCENT CATALANO: No, right direction. Yeah, definitely on the amplitude of the low
was pretty close to it. Here we are coming to the end of 2019, where
do you see the equity markets today? Valuation was tough before and more so now. JASON TRENNERT: The hard part now is the market
is not cheap by any normal standard. I don’t also think it’s particularly expensive
given where interest rates and inflation are. We’re using, just to use round numbers, about
$175 for S&P 500 operating earnings. If you put an 18 multiple on that, which I
think is fair, given where again 10-year Treasury yields and inflation is, it would tell you
the market right now is fully valued, but not overvalued. VINCENT CATALANO: Not Cape like overvalued. JASON TRENNERT: Not Cape like overvalued. I’m not sure I’m a big fan of Cape, frankly,
especially with interest rates this low to begin with. We were talking this morning in our– we have
morning meeting every morning at 7:30 where we all get together and we discuss the market’s
direction and what’s happening. Our view is largely that if we’re going to
be wrong on the market, it’s likely that the market’s going to continue to strengthen more
than people think that markets rarely stop at fair value. They tend to get overvalued before bull markets
end, and even though– again, it’s pretty fully valued right now, with the Fed on hold
for most of next year, it’s certainly hard to be short, it would be my view. VINCENT CATALANO: Earning’s looking pretty
good going into next year, at least the next 12 months. In any event, interest rates being low. That suggests to me that you guys use something
along the lines of a discounted cash flow model for value. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah, we do the earnings on
a bottom up basis, really from a sector level so that not bottom up all 500 S&P 500 companies,
but we do it sector by sector and we build it up from there and come up with an earnings
estimate for the year. Then we use a variety of econometric models
to forecast the multiple. Frankly, right now, the models spit out what
I would say was almost socially unacceptable numbers of 20 or 21, or 22 times earnings
just because you have secularly low interest rates and inflation. Probably we don’t want to bite on that too
much because generally speaking, it’s hard to get a multiple more than 19 or 20 on a
sustainable basis but by the same token, 18, or 19, is perfectly reasonable. Again, we’d rather be a little cautious and
be wrong by market moving up the other way as opposed to being too galosh and have the
market call the wrong way. VINCENT CATALANO: At an 18 multiple, that
sounds a little bit like the rule of 20. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah, that’s a fair– the
rule of 20 was created by my old boss, Jim Maltz and he had found over time, over a long
period of time, that if you added up the multiple of the S&P 500 and inflation, that on average,
the sum of those two items equal 20, over long periods of time. We have very sophisticated models that look
at all sorts of things. Then we have the rule of 20, and I’d have
to say that the rule 20 is just as good as some of the very sophisticated econometric
models. They’re largely getting at the same thing,
which is largely the idea that when you’re discounted cash flows by lower interest rates,
the net present value is quite a bit higher. That’s largely what it’s getting to. VINCENT CATALANO: Now, you referenced the
Fed and low interest rates and all, where do you see rates going into the next year,
which is a big factor all the way around economically in the financial market? JASON TRENNERT: Yeah. Well, short rates in my view are going to
stay in the current range. The Fed just met last week, second week of
December. You’re going to between 1.50 and 1.75, the
Fed has made it pretty clear, too, they’re not going to change until inflation is above
2 and looks like it’s going to stay above 2%. Right now, with inflation about 1.50, little
more than 1.50, that doesn’t seem to be likely anytime soon. I think the Fed is done for next year. Long rates, on the other hand, though, I think
should start to drift higher. Frankly, I think it’s a good thing if they’re
drifting higher because it’s a reflection of real GDP growth, as opposed to inflation. It’s hard to forecast inflation right now,
in my opinion. Our expectation is that a stronger global
economy next year will allow interest rates to move higher, and that actually winds up
being good for S&P 500 operating earnings because a steeper yield curve tends to be
good for financials. VINCENT CATALANO: That yield curve being more
positively sloped is a reflection of an economy, US and worldwide, that’s in better shape? JASON TRENNERT: That’s in better shape. Again, you have decent growth with low inflation. It’s really a Goldilocks type scenario. I think, again, next year is an election year,
too, as if we can’t forget, but the Fed probably doesn’t want to be too involved, wants to
be less involved than it has been over the last few years, probably doesn’t want to get
the president involved. They don’t need to. Again, they’re in a position now where inflation
is so tamed that I don’t think they have to worry too much about inflation getting away
from them, running away from them, and they can take their time with the next move. VINCENT CATALANO: Tell us about the political
scene because you guys covered that as well. Dan Clifton. JASON TRENNERT: Yep. Daniel Clifton. VINCENT CATALANO: Down there in Washington
and what’s your firm’s perspective on that? Implications economically and implications
for the market? JASON TRENNERT: Yeah, we’ve been in– and
I was saying before, we’ve had plenty of bad calls, but one of the good calls we’ve had
was on this idea of populism being something that can last. We were pretty early on in taking Donald Trump
seriously as a presidential candidate, pretty early on taking Brexit seriously as a potential
outcome. We’re still very much of the view that populism
is an enduring political theme. One thing I feel strongly about is that whoever
next president is, it will be a populist. The question is, is it the right of center
populace that’s in the presidency now, or is it a left of center populist, like a Bernie
Sanders or Elizabeth Warren? I think the days of– for the time being,
the days of having an establishment candidate are probably pretty unlikely, in my opinion,
and I think that it’s largely reflective of concerns that everyday people have that are
not largely and they have not really been met by the orthodoxy of the bigger parties. VINCENT CATALANO: That argues against someone
like a Joe Biden. JASON TRENNERT: Like a Joe Biden, in my opinion,
he may very well win the nomination but I think if he ran against Donald Trump, he might
have a decent chance of beating him but I think Donald Trump would win. Listen, incumbents have a hard time losing
anyway. Incumbents particularly have a hard time losing
when the economy is as strong as it is now. Now, there’s 10 months in– VINCENT CATALANO:
In any number of events. JASON TRENNERT: 10 months is an eternity,
especially these days in a 24-hour news cycle. Our best guess is that the status quo will
prevail, which is to say that Donald Trump will be reelected, that the Democrats will
keep hold of the house and the Republicans will keep control of the Senate. In our opinion, that’s the most likely outcome. By the same token, it’s pretty a 50/50 country,
and anything could happen but economy, in my opinion, will be the single most important
factor in terms of who gets elected next. VINCENT CATALANO: It’d be interesting to see
what the consequences of that would be worldwide. JASON TRENNERT: Donald Trump being reelected? VINCENT CATALANO: That’s correct. In other words, 2016 wasn’t an aberration,
it is what is. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah. My opinion, Brexit, what’s happening in Italy,
what’s happening in a lot of the regional elections in Europe I think give you a pretty
strong indication that 2016 wasn’t an aberration, that there are a lot of secular pieties on
both the left and the right that have been followed by the establishment candidates,
by establishment parties, that average people are saying this just doesn’t work for us. You could go through whether it’s free trade
with a country that’s not really interested in free trade, like China or open borders
or formal Care Act or wars, endless wars and all these sorts of things average people were
starting to question and they want something different. VINCENT CATALANO: Do you think that the, in
the US, the Democrats basically with their embrace of let’s call it the coastal elites,
so to speak, and in particular, Wall Street and Silicon Valley, do you think that that
is a dynamic that’s there that the democrats are missing? JASON TRENNERT: That’s my opinion. I grew up in– both my parents were Democrats
and I was a Democrat for a while, but it was very different party at that point, it was
largely for working men, working women. It was largely anti-communist, if you had
a strong religious faith, you didn’t feel that you were necessarily excluded. The party has changed a lot now and we could
debate those things, but I could say there’s a lot of people who have those opinions now
that might not feel that at home in the Democratic Party, and I think that’s one of the issues. I think that’s part of the why Donald Trump
won, he recognized that and recognized that there are certain longing for something. That’s why I think Joe Biden would probably
have the best chance of beating Donald Trump because I think he has that every man type
of feel. I think he would have a better shot at winning
than either Sanders or Warren. VINCENT CATALANO: How do you blend longer
term trends and themes with shorter term business cycle related issues? How do you mesh the two together? Because I get a sense that you do that you
do look at both. How do you develop that into an investment
methodology? JASON TRENNERT: Yeah. Well, that’s a great question. Because it is a constant struggle, and it’s
mainly because our clients are professional investors so to be frank, the main thing we’re
trying to get first is the next six to 12 months, just trying to make sure our clients
stay employed. Then in turn, keep us employed, because one
of the hard parts about the investment business, particularly when it comes to stocks and stocks
are the longest duration assets you can get really, maybe aside from real estate. Yet most people who manage stocks are managed
at best, or evaluated on a once a year basis. Then some hedge funds are evaluated on a monthly
basis. It’s an almost impossible task for the professional
investor today, in my opinion, that they again have our trading at very long duration assets
and yet, they’re held of this very short term standard. We try to give the longer term themes and
we publish separate reports on the longer term themes once every quarter, where we try
to give people say these are big, long term things to think about whether it might be
populism or whether it might be the convergence between the public and private equity markets
or very, very long term ideas. We publish those on a quarterly basis to make
sure people know what we’re thinking about those things but we also publish every day
about what’s happening every day and what we think is the most likely outcome on a shorter
to intermediate timeframe. VINCENT CATALANO: See, I think that that’s
one of the great value propositions of Strategas, is the fact that you do reconcile the long
term framework, so to speak, with the short term practical elements of it. What you said before about professional investors
that they’re judged on a shorter term basis, they’re in long duration assets, for the most
part, judged on a short term basis in many cases. Which is a difficult balancing act to do and
the thing I’ve always been struck by is that Strategas, my sense is that you guys have
your ear to that ground better than pretty much anybody. JASON TRENNERT: Well, that’s a very nice thing
to say. It’s actually, in my opinion, is one of the
great compliments you could give our firm. I think if we do that well, it’s largely because
we– for better or worse, we travel all the time meaning I’d say for worse because I have
to go through TSA or the airport. For better, once you get to wherever you’re
going– which I travel 70, 75 days a year and will be in everywhere from- – being everywhere
from Des Moines to London to Singapore and balance. My partners travel more than I do if you can
believe it, they’re a little younger than I am. The bad thing about that is time away from
your family and it’s not easy physically. The good thing though is that you meet a lot
of different types of investors and not just hedge funds here in New York. You also meet mutual fund managers in Boston
and state pension plans and the middle part of the country and then you might deal with
a big bank in Europe or big public pension plan in Australia, those types of things. You have a good idea of where people are positioned
and how people are thinking and it keeps your mind fresh too, because you’re not just talking
to each other, which is one of the biggest, let’s say one of the biggest risk in the investment
businesses, you just spent a lot of time talking to other people that have the same idea as
you do, or the same similar backgrounds or similar circumstances. VINCENT CATALANO: How do you factor that into,
or do you not factor that into your estimates of where the financial markets will be? That dynamic of what they’re thinking etc. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah, I wouldn’t say it’s
not, certainly not. There’s no mathematical way we do it, but
we do meet every day as a firm. We have a morning meeting, as I said, at 7:30
every morning and we share all the time what we’re hearing from the road, and the questions
that were being asked by investors and that the questions that were being asked by professional
investors inform a lot of our written work because again, if you spend a couple of days
on the road, let’s say in Texas, you’ll find that you’ll get the same two or three questions
in almost every meeting or something that’s on people’s minds. That will be the basis for the next report,
we say we should look into– we might not know the answer, well, likely not know the
answer. Then we’ll do the research and we’ll say this
is actually what happens. This is how long it takes between the first
Fed easing and the next Fed tightening on average, how long does that take? A lot of things along those lines, what happens
when the dollar strengthens or when the dollar weakens as it relates to earnings or sector
weightings or things along those lines? VINCENT CATALANO: That then gets fed back
into the decision process? JASON TRENNERT: Exactly. VINCENT CATALANO: What happens if you had
a view, a consensus view, let’s call it out there, of professional investors, some of
which may carry more weight than others in your mind in terms of their insights and their
views? If that is in conflict, let’s say, with the
fundamental valuation work that you’ve done with maybe the technical market intelligence
that’s there, what happens with that? Does that tilt, you say, oh, well, we believe
this but this element here is a dynamic? JASON TRENNERT: Well, I have to say as always,
as a basis for all the things we do I have to say is, it’s long enough to know that you
have to be humble in this business because it’s a very humbling business. We’re never– I would say the style of the
firm is decidedly never to pound the table on anything. We are always thinking about ways when we
put on any new call. Before we put it on, we think about how we
might be wrong and what would cause us to change our mind before the trade is put on
or before the idea is established because it becomes important because you want to be
able to recognize when you’re wrong quickly as opposed to just trying to paper over it
or make other excuses for it. Our clients, mercifully, our clients give
us a lot of benefit for showing our work. Like as long as it’s well thought out and
well-reasoned, our clients cut us wide slack when we’re wrong. Again, we try to have this discipline of when
we are wrong, admitting it quickly and moving on and getting onto something where we might
have an edge. VINCENT CATALANO: That comment reminds me
of something that Byron Wien of Morgan Stanley, one said at a CFA market forecast event that
I did, when he was asked the question why are we doing this forecast for the year ahead? He said, it’s not the specific forecast for
the number, it’s the process that you put into it in understanding. That sounds like what you just said. JASON TRENNERT: I think that’s right. I think Wall Street or in the investment business,
it can be sometimes when people are not involved in the business, it can seem rather dry or
very uncreative. Yet I think the investment business in many
ways is more and more intellectually stimulating businesses there can be because virtually,
everything can have an investment implications. It can be very creative business in its own
way. If you’re a news junkie like I am, you spend
a lot of time learning about all sorts of different things, not just political events,
but scientific events or social movements, all of those things can go into higher thinking. It’s important. I view it that way, something where you’re
constantly learning and trying to test your thesis and all the rest. VINCENT CATALANO: Social Science with money. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah. I think the problems– it is a social science,
and the problems in the financial markets come when people try to make it a hard science
I find. That’s when people like long term capital
trying to make it a hard science, people that packaged mortgage backed securities and credit
default swaps, they try to make it a hard science like you put a little bit of a beaker
A and a beaker B and it equals beaker C, all the time. The thing is when you’re dealing with human
beings, it doesn’t work that way. That’s one of the things I have to say worries
me a little bit about this Fed. I feel more confident in the past Fed, Bernanke
Fed and the Yellen Fed, like I worry quite a bit that they viewed their role as really
almost as chemists, or hard scientists, where, if you do enough of one thing, it will always
turn out the way you expect it and it just doesn’t. When you’re dealing with human beings, of
course, it doesn’t work that way. VINCENT CATALANO: I want to get to a couple
of actionable items and areas that your friend was looking at. Before we do, I’d like to get your views on
private equity. Quite a bit of money is going in that direction. Institutional investors are shifting money
more so than at any point in the past into private equity. First, what’s your view in general of private
equity as an investment vehicle alternative? Then secondly, I’d like to get your thoughts
on what you think the motivating factor might be for institutional investors going into
private equity that might include the whole issue of required rates of return, and not
being able to hit it when you have interest rates at 2% and 3% and you got mark to market
with that, and then you have private equity that’s [indiscernible] your thoughts on private
equity. JASON TRENNERT: Well, I have to say in terms
of just being frank about it, we have no private equity clients. Consider the source. All of my clients are public equity or public
market clients. I want to be fair, or just tell you where
my biases might lie, but I’m very skeptical about private equity, the future returns of
private equity being anything like what they were in the past. David Swensen really put private equity on
the map in terms of an institutional asset class. What he discovered was that there was a discount
for illiquid private companies, or that there was a liquidity premium for publicly traded
companies. He said, I can buy these assets, and I can
buy them in the private markets at a discount and eventually, they’ll either be public and
so on, I’ll make a lot of money. That made a lot of sense. He made a lot of money doing it, but of course,
he was the first person to do it. Now, you’re 25 years removed from when David
Swensen really started doing that and there are now 7000 private equity funds that have
about $3 trillion in assets. In my opinion you’re running out of– and
valuations, in my opinion, are not cheap anymore. I would argue that there’s actually an illiquidity
premium now over the public markets. Part of this and this gets into your second
question, which is why are people throwing so much money there? Frankly I think people are chasing performance
and I would also say that there’s an opacity of the private markets that is very appealing
if you don’t want to be embarrassed or fired. Not to be overly cynical about it, but your
average public pension plan has an investment return assumption of 7.50%. Very hard to do that when 10-year Treasury
yields are below 2% and the long term average returns of public equities are 7, pretty hard
to get to 7.50. The only way you can really get that is through
leverage. That’s what private equity provides. It also though, it provides the best leverage
because it moves much more slowly, the marks move much more slowly and so you’re more unlikely
to be embarrassed again or fired by having very outsized allocations to private equity. VINCENT CATALANO: That aspect that, you brought
this up several time now, that aspect is I think really underappreciated by many investors. That dynamic of the potential of career suicide,
of getting fired, it’s almost as though– okay, I’ve refrained from saying this or making
this connection but it’s just such a fun thing I think to do, CFA equal CYA. JASON TRENNERT: Yeah. Well, listen, I think all of us and no matter
what line of work we’re in, job number one is keeping your job. I think that we’re just human beings. We’re all part of the same hypocrisies. You have to just recognize that and try to
use it to your advantage and it doesn’t mean that people were all– no, it doesn’t mean
you’re bad people or– VINCENT CATALANO: No nefarious reasons. JASON TRENNERT: There’s no nefarious reasons
but there is a reality of the institutional investment business which, again, is as career
as a central part of it. Just like anyone else in any other profession
has the same tensions, that this just happens to be with other people’s money that tells
they’re different. VINCENT CATALANO: That’s a great, great point. Last item, actionable ideas. Sector coping style investing, asset allocation. Give us some thoughts on Strategas as you
where I might want to be for 2020. We had Rich Bernstein on the program here
a couple of months ago and late cycle investing was his thing that he was emphasizing, your
thoughts on where we’re at and where we ought to be as investors? JASON TRENNERT: Yeah, I would say in that
regard, we have a little bit of a different view than Rich and that I’m not convinced
where his late cycle as it might seem, I know the business expansion is 10 years old. It might seem late, but I also think that
the real Fed Funds Rate is zero. Usually what ends recoveries is the Fed killing
it. Inflation rises where the Fed killing it and
here because of financial repression, you’re pretty far away from that. What we’re telling our clients to do is to
get more cyclical. We’ve told them to really get more, we told
them to buy financials, we’re overweight four sectors, financials, industrials, technology
and telecom. We’re of the view that actually next year,
the global economy will pick up. That’s largely because a lot of the trade
tensions will largely be behind us, at least as far as it relates to business confidence. In my opinion, the trade war, in some ways,
it’s sterilized some of the benefits of the tax cut that you got at the end of 2017. That was good for capital spending for a year
but then it faded because businesses got scared because of trade. If trade is behind us, there is a chance that
business confidence picks up, capital spending picks up and also global economic activity
picks up and that should be good for those sectors. VINCENT CATALANO: Anything in terms of the–
any thoughts in terms of the global markets, emerging markets, frontier, Europe? JASON TRENNERT: Europe in my opinion is probably
as a trade, as more of a trade or a tactical approach let’s say for a year, six months
to a year as opposed to secular, I like you’re up quite a bit because in some ways, I tend
to think it almost got hurt the most between the tensions between China and the US just
because it’s so trade oriented, it’s so geared towards trade, it should benefit the most
if global growth starts to pick up. The question will be longer term, whether
Europe makes the structural changes it needs to pave the way for long lasting growth, but
for next year, at least in my opinion, Europe looks quite good. VINCENT CATALANO: That’s terrific. Thanks so much, Jason. JASON TRENNERT: Thank you. I appreciate it. VINCENT CATALANO: All the best in the year
ahead. JASON TRENNERT: Thank you. Thanks a lot. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it.

Stock Order Types: Limit Orders, Market Orders, and Stop Orders


You’ve chosen a stock or ETF you want to
invest in, and you know how many shares you want to buy. Now, you’ve just got to place the order. For novice investors, that may be trickier
than it seems because before placing that order, they have to choose an order type. Simply put, order types are instructions to
your broker about how to execute your trade. You don’t need to know the complicated jargon
or hand signals traders used to use on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, but
you should understand the basic order types and how they affect your trade. Let’s focus on the basics of how an order
is placed, then three common order types: market orders, limit orders, and stop orders. First up: how an order is placed. When you select buy or sell, your order is
sent to your broker, who attempts to fill it on the market. Prices can change constantly, and the system
for routing orders has lots of moving parts, all of which impact how quickly and at what
price your order is actually filled. Using the right order type can impact these
factors, and make a big difference in whether your trade works the way you intended, so
it’s important to understand the main order types. Let’s start with market order. This order type indicates that you want your
order filled immediately at the next available price. If prices are changing rapidly, the next available
price could be different than the price quoted when you initially placed the order. Investors who use market orders tend to be
more concerned about the speed of a trade than the price. The lack of restriction on price means this
order type has the best chance of being filled, but it also has the risk of being filled at
a different price. For example, say an investor places an order
to sell a stock at $75. But if the price is plummeting and other investors
are also trying to sell, the price could drop by the time the order is filled. Likewise, if an investor places a market order
after hours, the price could be very different when the order is filled at market open. Because of this, investors typically use market
orders during trading hours and in highly liquid markets. This increases the chances of getting an order
filled closer to the requested price. If your priority is to buy or sell at an exact
price or better, you may want to use a limit order instead. With a limit order, you specify a price, and
the order won’t be filled until the stock can be bought or sold at that price or lower. However, because of the price restriction,
there’s no guarantee the order will be filled quickly or at all. Investors generally use limit orders when
they have a target entry or exit price and are willing to wait for the market to move
in their favor. Let’s say, for example, that a stock is
currently trading at $55, but an investor believes it’d be a good value at $50 or
less. This investor could place a limit order to
buy the stock at $50. If the stock never reaches the limit price,
the order would never be filled. If the stock does drop to $50 or below, with
enough volume available at that price, the order will fill and the investor will buy
the stock for $50 or less. The last order type is a stop order, which
is actually just a market or limit order with an activation price that triggers the order. When the stock reaches the activation price,
the order is executed according to its order type. Stop orders can be used in various ways. Investors can use buy-stop orders to buy securities
when they reach the activation price. Or, they can use sell-stop orders when trying
to limit potential loss in an investment. For example, an investor might set a sell-stop
order on a stock she owns, specifying that if the stock falls to a certain price or lower,
it’ll trigger an order to sell the stock at the next available market price. This could possibly prevent more serious losses
by getting out before the stock falls too far. There are three types of stop orders: stop
market, stop limit, and trailing stop. If the investor in this example uses a stop-market
order, when the trigger price or lower is reached, an order will be placed to sell the
stock at the next available price. The benefit is that a stop-market order may
help get the investor out of the falling position quickly. The risk is that the next available price
could be lower than what the investor anticipated. If the investor uses a stop-limit order, when
the stock falls to the stop price, it’ll trigger an order that seeks to fill at the
limit price or better. A potential benefit is being able to control
what price the stock is sold at. But there’s also a risk of the stock falling
so quickly that the stop is triggered, but the limit order is never filled because the
stock has fallen below the limit price. Investors can also use a trailing stop order. With a trailing stop order, instead of setting
a specific activation price, you set a trailing amount or a certain dollar amount or percentage
away from the market price. On a long position, you’d typically set
a trailing stop below the market price in an attempt to lock in profits as the stock
rises. So, let’s say you own a stock trading at
$100 and place a trailing stop order $5 below the current price. If the stock price increases to $110, the
stop price would rise from $95 to $105, staying $5 below the market price. But if the stock were to start slipping, the
trailing price would stay at $105, minimizing your potential loss on the position. Each order type has its advantages and disadvantages. Investors should plan ahead and decide which
type of order is right for each scenario. It can be tricky to remember which order to
use, so consider practicing each type in a paper trading environment before putting real
money on the line.

How To Setup Market Profile Volume Profile For Trading – Stock Market Trading For Beginners


– [Presenter] Welcome to another video in stock market trading
for beginners series. In this video, I will show you how to get market profile charts
and volume profile charts at low cost. Watch this video till the
end as I show in detail how to set up Sierra
Chart with all settings and an appropriate example. Now, three most common
questions asked by beginners who wanna get started in market
profile are as following. Number one, how to access
market profile charts to get started. Number two, which software
for market profile charts one should use and number three what is the cheapest way to
access market profile charts. So in this video, I attempt
to answer all these questions. So let’s get started. Now, I’ll try and keep this
video as short as possible. So market profile, volume
profile and order flow charts are extremely hard to procure. If you look at the entry
barriers, that is for beginners in this particular field is
too high as the cost to procure market profile charts
and volume profile charts is just too high. For accessing market profile charts, you need a combination of
proper software to display the chart and data to feed
into the particular software. In some cases, software is free
but profile indicators cost a lot and in other cases
software and data is sold as a package at exorbitant cost. Now, let’s first look at
the alternatives available and I’ll be only covering
those alternatives that I have tried and then
I’ll give you the name of the software and how
to set it up in detail once we finish this alternative section. Now the reason why I’m
covering these software as well is that every trader has his own choice of a particular software
so you can explore these softwares as well. So the first software
is Esignal’s Software and this you have to opt
for the signature version of the software and then add
market profile indicators as an add-on. Now cost would typically be
between Rs 14000 and 16000 per month and you will get software plus the entire data package. The second software which is quite popular is Linnsoft Investor/RT. Now the core package and profile package will have to be selected if
you wanna use this software. Core package cost somewhere
around Rs 3500 per month and profile package
will cost you somewhere near Rs 2000 per month. Total cost for the software alone would be about Rs 5500 to 6000 per month. And then, you would have
to shell out additional Rs 6000 per month through Esignal data and the total cost for this
particular software with data would be somewhere around
Rs 11000 to 12000 per month. Now Ninja Trader is a
very popular software. The core platform is free however if you wanna access TPO chart that is market profile chart
and volume profile chart, you will have to buy this
through external vendors. Now this is where a lot of
traders get into trouble because if you opt for
a monthly subscription for these indicators in Ninja Trader, it will cost you somewhere around Rs 3500 to 5500 per month, and additional data cost would be around Rs 2500 to 3000 per month. So in a cost of about Rs
8000-9000 with Ninja Trader, you can completely get ready
for market profile charts but there are also some
vendors who sell market profile indicators and various
other fancy indicators for a lifetime fee of Rs 50000 to 100000. Now, I feel this is a
serious waste of money and all beginners who are
interested in market profile should avoid doing this. I’ll show you a very cheap
way of getting started with market profile and
then if it suits you and you start making money with it then you can go and invest in
various expensive softwares. So in my opinion, Esignal,
Linnsoft and Ninja Trader all are good softwares
but I think for beginners this is not at all suitable. Another option which
is coming up these days is a website called Trading View Dot Com. Now at present, only volume profile indicators are available. I was checking the website
and there was some indications that market profile indicators
would be launched as well but I could not find a timeline about it. For now, volume profiling
indicators is only available under the Pro version
which you have to subscribe for about Rs 2500 per month and you can get volume
profile indicators in that. But market profile, TPO chart,
those sort of indicators have not yet been included
as to my knowledge, so in case it does get
introduced in the future then this would turn out to be one of the most cheapest option to access market profile charts. Another option is Amibroker software. This is the most popular
software at least in our country. Now the professional
edition for this software has a one time fee of about Rs 23000 and the standard edition
cost about Rs 19700. Now data for Amibroker can be procured for as little as Rs 2000 per month. For market and volume profile charts, you will have to use a AFL that Ami broker formula language extension. This is available freely on Google. There are some generous users who have actually coded market profile and volume profile charts
and uploaded on Google so you can try this option. I had tried to check
this Amibroker software plus this market profile AFL option but I thought that charts
were not that accurate. But it is entirely up to you and I don’t want to discredit
all those wonderful people who have actually uploaded
this AFL for free, and you should certainly check this out. The last option is by far
the cheapest option available for market profile charts. Now due to data feed problem in the Sierra Chart software. This is realtime but you would
have to manually import data every five minutes, 10
minutes or 20 minutes. A typical market profile data gets printed after 30 minutes of activity
so you can explore this option because I use this in
my day to day trading, and to analyze markets overall. Now, cost of this software
is just Rs 2300 per month and Excel data would cost
another Rs 1500 per month. So with the total cost
of Rs 3800 per month, you can get access to Market
Profile, Volume Profile and Market Depth Chart. Again, the thing is why I
am suggesting this option is that most of the beginners
who want to begin in a field like market profile, they
don’t know whether that field is suitable for them or not. And which is why you
should initially invest as little money as possible in software and data just to see whether
this particular field is for you or not. In case you go in and make
let’s say 50,000, 100000 on a market profile software or indicator and then one month down the line you realize you’re not suitable
for this particular method. Then that money actually gets wasted which is why I think
Sierra Chart is one option, you should certainly explore. What I’ll do is now step by
step, I’ll get you to set up this Sierra Chart software
so that you can set it up on your computer by yourself. Just a standard disclaimer here. I don’t get any commissions. I don’t have any affiliations
with Sierra Chart. I don’t do that stuff in this channel yet so let’s get started with
setting up Sierra Chart. So let us now see how to set
up this Sierra Chart software. Now once you go to sierrachart.com and sign up for an account
then you have to subscribe to service package five which contains all the market profile indicators. Now these are more than enough if you’re a beginner to
start with market profile and you don’t need any fancy softwares at this stage at least. So once you’ve completed account set up, go and subscribe for
this particular package. This will cost you about $33 USD per month which would roughly come to about Rs 2200, 2300 per month. Now this is the Excel sheet
that is in Excel data format for you to import data into Sierra Chart. It has to contain symbol, date,
time, open, high, low, close and volume open interest
data is complete optional. Now there are some particular formats which have to be followed. It will take you just about
10-15 minutes initially to set this up with Sierra Chart, and then easily with the
click of a mouse button, you can import all the data
every 10-15, 20 minutes as per your convenience. Now, the Excel sheet format
should be as following symbol name should be present, date should be in the format, YYMMDD. That means year year, month
month and D-D, that is date. Time should be in the format of hhmmss which means hours minutes and seconds. So if you look at the previous sheet, date is in the format. This is 2018, August 6th. I hope this particular point is clear. For time, this is 9:19:59. I hope this is clear as well. So now let me just show you how to set up the Sierra Chart software. Now, this is where I open up
the Sierra Chart interface. What you need to do is you
first need to go to edit, import and load into the data. Once you install Sierra Chart,
you’re data will be stored in your main hard drive
Sierra chart program name and then data section. Here you see, I have
bank nifty data already so I’ll double click
this and bank nifty data gets plotted in a simple bar chart format. Now is the time to set up for
a market profile indicators. What I’ll do is just go
to chart, chart settings. The price display format
should be set to one. Tick size should be set to one as well. Now, number of days of
data that you need to load depend on the amount of data you have. In this sheet, I have
loaded for 90 days data. I’ll set it to that and then click on this apply
global symbol settings section, click apply and the click okay. Now, let us go ahead and
plot the market profile data. Go to analysis study section then scroll down to TPO indicator. So this is the TPO profile
chart, double click. It will come up here. Go to settings and in this section, click 30, enter 30 value
and just click apply. So now you see that market profile chart in a block format has come up. In case, you prefer letter format, I think there is a setting
here in this section. Letters if you click, it becomes, it come out into letters. So I hope this particular
section is clear. There are a lot of settings
that you can experiment with and in case, you wanna get started in this particular section. Go to the description link here and we’re in the default Sierra Chart. Help file would help you
understand how to set up these charts further. So this was just a basic
set up of how you needed to set up the Sierra Chart software. Once you click on okay and every time as your Excel sheet updates,
the only thing you have to do is go to edit, click import and load data and double click on this file and this will get updated
so it is as simple as this. So in case you get stuck at
some stage while setting up this market profile software, you can leave a comment below and I’ll tell you what to do exactly when. It’s fairly simple if you
just follow the instructions on this video, you will
be able to set it up. So now, I’ll just take
you through a section of how to get started in market profile and then you can go ahead and
put this up on your desktop. So this particular video was long due as I had received a lot
of requests from users to help them set up market profile chart. The way to get started in market profile. I’ll ask you to first go through my 10 Part Series on Market Profile which I have completed on this channel. The other thing is that
avoid getting into the trap of fancy Market Profile Softwares. There are so many Market Profile Softwares which are so expensive. It’s just not worth starting with those particular softwares. As a beginner, if you are going to start in Market Profile, all you
need is Volume and TPO Chart. That is volume profile chart and TPO chart and then you can see if
this particular field suits you or not. Everything else at this
stage is not required. It will simply make softwares vendor rich and you won’t achieve anything with that. Now there are so many fancy
softwares that those indicators are actually visually appealing. And I have seen a lot of
beginners committing this mistake by simply going and buying
those expensive softwares and later on realizing that
market profile is not for them. So see if this complete market
profile series that I’ve done it suits you as a creator
and once you start practicing the principles I’ve mentioned
and you start making money, then invest in expensive softwares. I think for starting in market profile, the basic things that you
need is already covered in this video, so in case you are finding any difficulty in setting this up or with any other topic in Market Profile, just leave a comment below and I’ll get back to
you as soon as possible. Thanks a lot for watching this video guys, I hope this helps you a lot, thank you. – [Announcer] Click on
the subscribe button and bell icon to get instantly notified when a new video is uploaded. Thank you for subscribing. (upbeat music)

Top 5 Monthly Dividend ETFs for 2020 – ETFs that Pay Monthly Dividends


hi I’m Jimmy in this video I’m gonna
walk through my top five dividend ETFs that pay monthly dividends now I was
surprised to see how many monthly dividend ETFs I actually found I found
over 400 of them so I’m gonna try to diversify this particular top 5 monthly
dividend ETF list and hopefully that can get us closer to our personal goal of
financial freedom as you can imagine I found a wide range of interesting
monthly dividend ETFs some have dividend yields as high as 9
or 10% but many of those had smaller amounts of money in the ETF and then
there were ETFs that had a lot more money in them but smaller dividend
yields so I’m actually gonna break I’m actually gonna do two different videos
this video is going to focus on the group with more assets in each of the
ETFs and they generally range from with dividend yields from somewhere between
3% to let’s say about 6% and then I think it’s smart to put together another
video that has less assets in them but much higher dividend notes if that’s
something you’d be interested in in sync please let me know in the comments below
okay so let’s jump in now our first monthly dividend ETF is
the Vanguard intermediate term corporate bond ETF ticker symbol VCIT this ETF
has a dividend yield of about 3.3 percent this is a small yield on our
list then they have assets of a bit more than 27 billion dollars and then they
have a fee of just 5 basis points so what this ETF does is they focus on
buying corporate bonds that have maturity from somewhere between five and
ten years away they invest in bonds from companies like CVS or Bank of America AbbVie Broadcom Microsoft the list goes on and on they have more than 1,700
different bonds in their ETF so it’s fairly well diversified and then when we
look at their dividend history what we could see that there did their dividend
history is fairly decent they’ve paid consistently most of the time above 20
cents per month for the past few years so I think this is a decent medium-term
bond etf that could help diversify many of our portfolios okay moving along next
up on the monthly dividend ETF list is the S&P 500 High Dividend
low volatility ETF ticker symbol SPHD their dividend yield is about 4.2
percent they have assets a bit under 4 billion dollars and they have a fee of
about 30 basis points so basically what this ETF does is they take the 75
highest dividend paying stocks from the S&P 500 and then they narrow that des
that list down further by taking the top 50 of those companies that have the
lowest volatility then they weigh them according to their dividend yield which
is a bit unusual most companies most ETFs if they’re going to weight the
companies or the holdings usually do it by market cap not dividend yield so it’s
somewhat interesting from that perspective once again this is a monthly
dividend ETF so when we look at their dividend history what we can see that
it’s been fairly consistent over the past few years now this ETF can be an
interesting way to access some of the top companies since they have companies
like AT&T and Verizon they have Exxon Mobil and Chevron IBM
UPS General Mills Gilead and the list goes on and on they have a like I said
50 companies in there so they’re fairly well diversified with all SP 500
companies okay our next monthly dividend ETF is the Invesco high-yield equity ETF
ticker symbol PEY they have a dividend yield of a bit less than 4% and
they have a bit under a billion dollars as far as assets under management and
they have an expense ratio of about 54 basis points so what PEY does is they
hold the 50 highest dividend yielding stocks that are from the Nasdaq and they
had to have increased their dividend for at least 10 consecutive years so this
ETF is somewhat like the dividend aristocrat cetf which where they look
for companies that have consistently increased their dividends but one
advantage of this particular ETF is that they pay their dividends monthly unlike
NOBL which is a different aristocrats ETF they pay theirs quarterly so if
monthly is what we’re after this could be a good addition when we look at their
dividend history what we can see that they’ve been consistent enough in fact
they’ve grown their dividend a bit more than I would have expected over the past
year or so I the way this could be a good thing for
dividend investors good ETF to watch if we’re interested in monthly dividends
okay next up we have an ETF that focuses on emerging markets where they buy
mostly government bonds this is the emerging market bond ETF ticker symbol
EMB they have a solid dividend yield of about four and a half percent they have
a bit more than fifteen billion dollars in assets and they have a fee of about
thirty nine basis points now like I said what they do is they invest mostly in
government bonds it’s that over eighty percent of their bonds are government
bonds they focus on developing countries there are three largest countries I
believe were Mexico Indonesia and Turkey and we look at their dividend history
well outside of what appears to be a special dividend of $1.29 towards the
end of 2018 well it’s been fairly consistent now I
do want to bring out one point that I think is worth noting see this gap right
here it’s a little bit wider in between the lines and then that one there well
that’s when what this particular ETF does and I’ve noticed a few monthly
dividend etf’s do this and that is that they actually pay their January dividend
at the end of December so you end up with two in December and none in January
and then one in early February they still count this as a month and dividend
but I just wanted to point it out a few monthly etf monthly dividend ETF stew
this okay next up we have a dividend ETF that focuses on preferred stocks called
the Invesco financial preferred ETF ticker symbol PGF they have a dividend
yield of about 5.1 percent and they have assets of a bit over a billion and a
half dollars and they’ve a fee of about 62 or 63 basis points now I recognize
that this fee is a bit on the high side as far as expense ratios go
but anyone who knows me knows that although I prefer lower fees who doesn’t
well I’m okay with the fee if the fund serves a particular purpose in our
portfolio so in the case of this fund well clearly they invest primarily in
preferred shares of financial companies and with the dividend yield of a bit
more than five percent well for me I might say something like okay I’m
getting let’s say 5.1 percent as far as the dividend goes is that worth let’s
say a bit more than half a percent for a fee so
at a four-and-a-half percent net dividend to me after we cover the fees
now it doesn’t exactly work that way I just want to walk through one way I
think about it so for looking for exposure to the financial sector or even
preferred shares well this might be a good way to still get our monthly
dividends and get exposure to this particular market and perhaps the fee is
worth it it’s it depends on each of our portfolios well when we look at their
dividend history well we can see that they’ve been fairly steady which is a
good sign for us if that’s all we’re after and if that makes sense for each
of our individual portfolios now I know I’ve mentioned a few times in this video
the this ETF or another ETF could be a good addition
to our portfolio generally what I’m looking for is good ways to diversify
our portfolio so if the market crashes hopefully not all of the holdings not
all the ETFs or stocks that we own go down the same way maybe some even go up
now if you’re curious to learn more about how to diversify portfolio
actually did a video on that exact topic that could be a good next video to watch
if you’re interested there’s a link here there’s a link in the description below
and I really want to thank you for stick with me all the way down to the video I
really appreciate it thanks and I’ll see in the next video

How to Pay For School | Tips On Saving Money For College


Hey everyone, so college is one of the biggest
expenses you face as a young twenty-something. According to data from valuepenguin.com, the
cost of college is, on average, anywhere from $4,800 a year for a typical community college
to as much as $50,000 a year or more for a private four-year college. That’s quite a chunk of change to somebody
who’s just graduated high school. So it’s not surprising that the student
loan debt in America is over $1.5 trillion with the average person carrying approximately
$30,000 in student loans. Even with the additional income commanded
by those with at least a bachelor’s degree that amount of debt can really hamper early
progress toward financial success. This is especially true if you happen to graduate
during a time when good jobs are scarce as many people have in recent years. So that begs the question of how we can better
prepare ourselves for the costs of higher education? That’s what we’re going to be talking
about today. In today’s video, we’re going to be discussing
how to save money for college. There is no doubt that college is great for some
people. Higher education is downright mandatory for
certain career paths like doctors and lawyers, but it isn’t for everybody. You can create a very comfortable life for
yourself with or without a degree. So before we talk about how to save money
for college I want to briefly discuss some statistics and reasons why some of you may
not actually need college at all. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
the median income for high school graduates in 2017 was about $37,300 per year. For those with bachelor’s degrees, it was
about $61,800. And for those with advanced degrees, it was
about $75,400. There’s certainly a pretty big leap between
high school graduates and those who have at least a bachelor’s degree, but we also have
to consider the time it takes to get that degree and the cost of college itself. According to ValuePenguin.com the average
annual cost of a four-year college for in-state residents is about $25,000. For out of state residents that number increases
to nearly $41,000 a year. Private schools are even more expensive than
that with the average cost clocking in at over $50,000 a year. Those numbers include costs associated with
tuition and fees, room and board, books and supplies, transportation, and other miscellaneous
expenses. Judging by those numbers a four-year degree
at a school in your state may set you back about $100,000. That’s quite a chunk of change. Assuming that you put the full cost of that
degree on your student loans with a 4.5% interest rate and the standard 10-year term you would
be paying over $1,000 a month after graduation. That’s also quite a chunk of change. In fact, it’s about 20% of the median income
for those with bachelor’s degrees. John isn’t sure of what he wants to do for
work, but he’s been told that you need to get a college education to make it in today’s
job market so he goes to school. He pays about $25,000 a year for his education
and winds up $100,000 in debt by the time he’s wearing the cap and gown on graduation
day. He’s now 23 years old and gets a job earning
$60,000. He lowers his tax bill as much as possible
by investing in his 401K and IRA. After taxes, this would look suspiciously
like $4,200 a month. Not including the student loans he lives on
$2,000 a month. Since his student loans are costing him $1,000
a month, his total expenses are $3,000 a month. Therefore, John has about $1,200 a month left
over to invest. At an average 8% rate of return, John would
have $217,000 to his name when his student loans would finally be paid off at the age
of 33. This is certainly not bad and with his student
loans now gone, he will be able to start aggressively saving for his financial future. However, similar success can be achieved without
a degree. Jane also wasn’t sure what she wanted to
do for work, but unlike John, she decided to not pay for college unless she had a good
idea of what she wanted to do. She found a job at 18 making $36,000 a year
and just like John investing in her 401K and IRA to lower her tax bill as much as possible. After taxes, she takes home about $2,550 a
month. She lives on $2,000 a month just like John. She invests her leftover cash and has a net
worth of $167,000 at the age of 33. If Jane continued to invest like this she
would reach financial independence at the age of 45. That is a little later than John would be
based on these numbers but it is still far earlier than the average person, despite the
fact that she’s only got a high school diploma. Both John and Jane’s situation are good
ones to have. John had an idea of what he was going to school
for and was able to make it pay off for himself in a big way. Jane didn’t have a reason to go to school
so she saved herself from the costs by finding a good job that didn’t require higher education. She could, of course, decide to go to college
further down the road if she found something she really wanted to do that had a higher
education requirement. And with a full-time income, it would be much
easier for her to save money for the degree than it would’ve been in her youth. Bob’s situation is not as good. Like Jane, he didn’t know what he wanted
to do but he’s been told that you need to get a college education to make it in today’s
job market so he goes to school. He spends three years at college (racking
up $75,000 worth of student loans in the process) but never finds what he’s looking for. He doesn’t end up getting a degree and settles
into a job paying $36,000 just like Jane did. Like John and Jane, he lives on about $2,000
a month, but unlike Jane, he also has student loan payments to make. His payments are about $777 a month. That eats into the rest of his income and
then some so he is not able to invest at all. Unless something changes he’s just going
to go further into debt with time. And unfortunately for him, student loans are
incredibly tough to get rid of even through bankruptcy. Ultimately, this is the scenario we want to
avoid. That’s why it is crucial to have an idea
of what you’re going to college for. Your idea may change after you’re there,
which is fine, but we don’t want to just go to college to find our reason for pursuing
higher education. At tens of thousands of dollars a year, that’s
just too expensive of a risk to take. So first thing’s first, try to get an idea
of what jobs you might want to do by shadowing people in the fields you’re interested in
throughout high school (or earlier if you have the chance). If you find that you would love doing a job
that doesn’t really require a university education then you have saved yourself tens of thousands
of dollars if not more by forgoing the pursuit of a degree. If you end up finding a job that does actually
require a University degree, then you can start looking into ways to save on college
costs. This could include many things such as going
to a community college to get your two year degree before transferring to a 4-year University
to get your higher degrees, looking for scholarships or grants, looking for part-time jobs you
can do while at school, and saving early in things like ESA and 529 plans if you have
the time among others. These strategies can make a pretty big difference
in the cost of college and the amount of catch-up work you’ll have to do after graduation. For example, according to ValuePenguin’s
data, the average annual cost of a community college is just $4,864. Heh, and I say just $4,800 as if that’s
not also a lot, but it significantly cheaper than the 4-year university. If you got your two-year degree from the community
college it would run you about $9,700. You could then transfer to a 4-year university
and finish your bachelor’s for an additional $50,000. In total it would cost about $60,000 compared
to going to the 4-year university from the beginning and shelling out six figures. ESAs and 529 Plans are both ways to save for
educational expenses. ESA stands for education savings account. The 529 Plan gets its name from the IRS Code
number that it’s based on. Both the ESA and 529 Plan allows for tax-free
growth and withdrawals as long as you are withdrawing the money for qualifying educational
expenses. While contributions to the ESA are not tax-deductible,
they can be withdrawn tax-free for qualifying primary and secondary expenses as well as
college. You can choose just about any type of investment
you want and can contribute $2,000 per child, per year. ESAs must have a beneficiary listed and that
person must use the money by the age of 30 to avoid any taxes and penalties. If they aren’t going to use the money before
30 you can transfer it to another beneficiary as long as they are related to the original
beneficiary. This is really cool because it means that
if you’re saving for your kids college and they end up deciding not to go you can transfer
the account to your grandchildren! However, there are income restrictions with
the ESA. The restrictions begin with incomes between
$95,000 and $110,000 for individuals and $190,000 and $220,000 for those who file jointly. 529 Plans are offered by most states and are
a little more restrictive with their investing options than the ESA. For most states there are a few portfolios
that you can choose from when investing your money and you can reallocate your investments
twice a year. To make up for this the 529 Plans do offer
higher contribution limits of $14,000 per year and the money is still withdrawn tax-free
for qualifying expenses. There is no age limit for those using the
money. So if you’re beneficiary decides they want
to go back to school in their forties they’re free to do so with this money. Withdrawals can be used for college expenses
including tuition, room and board, and textbooks and supplies. However, they cannot be used for primary and
secondary school expenses like the ESA can. Unlike the ESA, there are no income restrictions
with most 529 Plans. And finally, just like the ESA, you can transfer
from the original beneficiary to someone else as long as they are related. With both of these plans, it’s important
to consult a financial professional as there are sometimes some differences in the fine
print, but this is generally how the options look. But as you can imagine these options can give
your son or daughter a massive head-start when it comes to saving for college. Assuming an 8% return and that you begin putting
money away for your child’s future educational costs when they’re born you could have an
ESA valued at over $80,000 by the time they’re 18. This could grow to as much as $120,000 by
the time their graduate college. The 529 Plan, due to it’s higher contribution
limits could be a great way to play some catch-up if you are starting later on in the game. At $14,000 a year, you could put away over
$110,000 in as little as 6 years assuming an 8% average annual return. However, if neither of these strategies work
for you there are still other options such as summer work. It’s great to be able to work during the
summer to earn money to pay for school. If that’s not enough though, there’s no
shame in working part-time during the school year as well. Your 30-year-old self will thank you for it
someday. Consider if you went to a community college
to get your two-year degree. It costs you approximately $10,000. If you then went to finish your bachelor’s
at a 4-year school you’d be paying about $50,000. In total your educational expenses are around
$60,000 over the course of 4 years. If you worked a full-time job in the summer
(13 weeks) that pays $12 an hour you would earn about $6,240. If you also worked 20 hours per week during
the school year (39 weeks) you would earn an additional $9,360. In total, you would have an income of $15,600. After taxes, this would likely be about $14,000
a year in income. With $15,000 a year in educational expenses
that would nearly pay for your entire degree! Within a few months of graduation, you could
be debt-free and off to the races building your investing portfolio. This may not help you save for college early,
but it will certainly help limit the damage excessive student loan debt can do to your
financial picture going forward. So those are some strategies for saving and
paying for college. Have you used any of them to help pay for
your or your children’s education? If not, what strategies did you use? Let me know in the comments section below.