Ten years ago the American economy was on the brink of collapse. And three people — — led the fight against economic meltdown. for George W. Bush in 2006. As the crisis deepened, he ran the nationalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and he convinced Congress to pass TARP. He and Paulson tried to save Lehman Brothers and brokered the bailout for AIG. Then in 2009, Geithner became secretary of the Treasury. Literally a scholar of the Great Depression, [he] wrote his Ph.D. thesis about it and about the mistakes the Fed made back then that he was determined to avoid. We are talking to all three of those guys. The challenges they had, how they responded So listen, what do you want to ask them? Let us know in the comments section below.
just want to start with with Sharon around the work of the the chemistry Council and sort of looking at the the industry strategy and I know you're involved with the industry sector deal for chemical industries can you just give us an indication of where that is because when it was announced that the CIA conference last November there was a strong link to digitalization and the importance of digitalization in in chemical and what it can bring that sector certainly over the next 10 years so can you can you just give us an update to that please yeah sure so just before I sort of launch into that just interested to know how many people are aware of a group called the chemistry Council have some hands ok chemistry growth partnership okay a few more and so I guess this is perhaps I'll just explain a little bit about them first maybe in just because it's important background this is a group of senior industrialists CEOs of companies from any asked to Unilever who have got together to really sponsor and promote I guess the sector the chemistry making and using sector in the UK and they've been working together for some time now really forming a strategy for growth which if you think about that in itself is a huge challenge because the sector is so diverse across a wide range of things from energy to sort of agri-food as well and that was launched in November last year in 2008 and headed up by Steve foots who's the CEO of a company called Crowder and also Richard Harrington who at the time was a senior base minister and and that's now moved on to a sector deal so the sector deals in the UK are pretty much like the one that established around the made smarter review their four important sectors in the UK and this secretary the chemistry Council I'm sure I've got representatives in the room today represents around about 50 billion of turnover in the UK and over half a million jobs indirect and direct jobs in skilled labour it's an important manufacturing sector for the UK and and in terms of the sector deal they'd recognize that they need to have some help in terms of funding transformation and innovative transformation and as Ian's rightly pointed out the Dayton digitization area was a key one for the sector's it's actually being built into both a strategy in the sector deal and in Ian I know did some work directly on the on the mate smart review so I can I just ask you to expand on on your findings going through that made smarter process and and sort of how how hosaka are digitizing their their business offering as well to see the value from from it well the main smarter was something that was needed for a long long time a long time in coming and basically British industry is very very traditional and has run for many many years without major investment so people have tended to to use a commonly used phrase Sweatt assets they've used things and left them as long as they possibly can and may do amend really with it and the biggest problem there is other countries in Europe especially if you look at Germany they're very machine centric and they've actually invested very heavily in the latest technologies that have gone along so made smarter was an opportunity to look at UK industry across various sectors and benchmark it against other industry sectors and other countries and how they were dealing with it and one of the things that really came out of it was the productivity levels are relatively low and there's big opportunities for improvement in those so typically we've used lots and lots of labour to improve processes and improve process efficiencies rather than actually look at alternative ways of doing it and also looking at how we can get people to be more efficient at what they do and also enjoy what they're doing so this is another part of it how we do it so I guess really as you just said to this morning the outputs of it were three things one was innovation and the technologies that support the change one is adoption how do we adopt these technologies and how to go forward with it and the next one has been defined as leadership but I would say this is very much the skill set and skill sets like because people need to change and they need to understand that what they're going to be doing the future is very different to what they're doing currently so there's a whole range of things that are changing so for me where do you start on this process and I think it comes down to people having to look at where their operations are company are and what they key performance indicators are and what their goals are so rather than using the terms that come out in this in the jargon I tend to think about it it's really coming down to people plant processes products and profit and most companies are driven by profits if you don't make a profit the company's not there so how do you do it well it's through all those other areas most people can't double the price and double the profits they have become more efficient so each of those areas has to improve so if we'd spin it to hosik our what we've actually been looking at doing is how we can understand processes and one of the things that we are a little bit unusual in is we actually don't make products in our contract manufacturing of our own we take other people's materials in process them for a limited time I'd have to get good results out of it by trying to maximize our efficiencies so what we have looked at is how can we model processes and it's very easy to do mathematically the hard bit is the materials that go through it they change all the time and it's a very difficult thing to model but if you've actually got the data coming from the plant the answer has to be right so what we've done is called with the sweeter tools which understands monitor and control our processes and we can apply that across the business and use it for prediction now as well as for the actual production so we've got a whole suite of tools that fit into but you've all started to highlight that importance of data and in the industry and across various industries today data has been collected in in in various forms for many years and it's how it's how we use that to convert it to business value and I know just one more question for Richard before we move on to the or the audience questions you've mentioned data to me before and I just want you to sort of explain in terms of your business how data has helped evolve the formulation and information exchange within that supply chain on data is interesting I've spent most of my career in the chemical manufacturing industry I need joined chemical distribution about six years ago and I was just amazed that the difference between dealing direct to other chemical manufacturing companies and then to the companies that are actually using chemicals and I've had L'Oreal and P&G as customer life but actually when you come into the white called Tier two three four five six seven eight nine ten it's a different perspective of people are using chemicals and blending them and at the end of the day Anna mainly getting formulated product and a lot of time in our business you can effectively if you didn't know what the name of the company was you can basically tell what they're going to doing cuz they're buying a portfolio of products that's going to make a shampoo going to make a floor cleaner on each and you can just pick it out very very gratefully then once you started getting behind that you start looking at well where are they going what information do they need what information do we need to capture because we're also driven by our partners our supply chain partners many of my big global chemicals they want to know about the innovation that's going on in the marketplace thus the cells of what they achieved for us is good but they were more interested lot of timing what's the next big trend what's the next innovative product how are you capturing that information how are you feeding that back to us and one sheriffing Sharon mentioned big data I'd actually cover it from slightly different angle and say small data there's a lot of companies out there with a lot of small data that you've got to put together to get a big picture that potentially can become big data and in this country and again in mice my customer base we have got some very very innovative customers who are doing things which you may not yet find in somewhere like a P&G or a Unilever because innovation doesn't just happen in the big companies some of my partner's what that information because then they can see how they can turn that into other business opportunities in other parts of the world and that's about capturing data so sometimes when I look at our distribution business I I look at it saying we're more in an information industry that actually is monetized through the sale of chemicals it's now becoming more about information than it is just about purely the supply chain the chemicals and that's the data side so we are now spending a lot of a lot of time and a lot of money on capturing data and now looking at how we do that better through the digitization of our business and one you've got quite some with some really good questions actually and this one is might push this to Sharon from sort of a strategy perspective and so it's how it is synonymous but how at risk are UK chemical firms are falling behind in digitalization so they become uncompetitive without wanting to make myself or you um and friendly or whatever in the room I think hugely and because a lot of other countries are moving at speed and the learning if you look outside of our sector is that digitization does transform sectors quite considerably it can reshape the business model quite considerably and you need to be not necessarily at the forefront but you need to be quite early in the in the in the lead process to make sure that you don't get left behind consolidation for example could be precipitated by digitization companies moving up and down the supply chain can be also precipitated by digitization so the whole business models you could see scenarios where things quite substantially shift and again concerns for SMEs you know in terms of helping them through pathways that make sure that they're stronger for the future so I think just reflecting some the comments made earlier you know we work with lots of different companies in different spaces and different shapes and sizes is very much try try some things early see what works and and also look for help from different places either other companies or organizations like ours that network people across different sectors there is help out there for people but yeah I fundamentally believe you have to be up there moving forward ASF unifies its unified its digitalization strategy across the world or is it country specific I wouldn't say country specific I would say regional part of it what we're doing is is are in as on a global scale but it's also on a regional scale so we do have a digital network within BSF and we do have digital weeks in terms of of sharing best practice so so there is now a team running the the digital platforming BSF in terms of the different strains under the different operating divisions what it what it means to be SF in terms of new ideas that coming in what we're trying to do it also works with our our key partners so in terms of on our ERP system so we're a big user of SA P so that's about sharing data in terms of working at the plaza not every parties is up and running on the using the full digital range of tools we've got because one is cost how do you run it out and and it's about learning from from what you're doing from plant to plant but we do share there is a a network a digital network whether that's on the the plant maintenance to make sure so we understand whether that's on the business models or the innovation side and everybody in the company is encouraged to to be part of digital so there are digital wheats which go out last one was in in May and then it's publicized all over our internet in turn the company and anyone can sign up to understand what's going on so there's probably about a hundred different projects ongoing around time which you can if you're in the company you can look into it you can ask the questions I'm for the UK what they call the digital champion for BSF in the UK and part of mine is to make sure people in the UK are aware what's going on in the business in terms of sharing we share with our our customers we share about competitors so part of these digital weeks we've had there like sort of a supply chain or companies like say Brent a Gore or Unilever come and talk about stories about where we've worked together and share best practice and it's all about sharing yeah sharing knowledge and how we do it so if we look along the supply chain one of the big issues we've got is security of supply so and we yeah we're working on do use things like blockchain technology in terms of to make sure from end to end is that right I'm not a blockchain expert I don't know but it's about exploring new ideas in terms of making sure the data is secure so that cyber cyber security is a big issue for us but yes we do share information where appropriate we've our key suppliers and I suppose the biggest one is si P for us in terms of helping us in terms of on the supply chain the manufacturing sites making sure that everybody has the information today and and it's all about data so how do we how do we make the chemical industry more sexy how do we get it more attractive to the to the graduates and the undergraduates and the kids coming out of school I start and pass the microphone on because it's topic of 28 years of thinking about I think I think it's an absolute must that the industry has to come together and it has to pop its head above the parapet and represent itself as a highly innovative industry because that's exactly what it is this industry started on creating novel molecules and molecular design and that is still the industry today and that is there so I think I think it has opportunities but I suspect over the years we've sort of dropped your heads down above below the parapet maybe for some some reasons that we all know about but I think maybe it's time to do the opposite I think interesting the data and digitization presents perhaps an opportunity and just thinking about the skills and talking to the companies that we talk to very few of them have seen digitization as being a skills issues but actually more of a skills opportunity and that's on to two levels one they don't necessarily see a loss of jobs so you hear a lot of scaremongering about you know I'm gonna work to know workforce in my company but actually it's just about redeployment of those people into other jobs which are mostly skilled in the sector and the other one is an interesting one which is around actually we have a hybrid portion of stem within our communities and companies and actually they're very well geared for actually adopting digitization and our e-learning actually because of the core skills they already have and that may present a real opportunity of the sector if it can move quickly and re-skill some of their workforce in the area of digitization but also it might make it more attractive for certainly young stem graduates with computer skills as well to join the industry I'd like in it too if you go back to the brexit issue three years ago I think you get the chemical industry when it was talking to government the government knew what the automotive industry was they could see they can touch the car same with the aerospace industry but typically if you talk to a minister I think they'd say chemicals they say I think the last three years of actually two especially in government I think we need to translate this into two schools is that communication getting them to understand what what chemistry is and where it is and and that every minute of the day you're touching something a chemical you know and to understand in terms of what it creates the innovation behind it and where we get and I think the Grand Challenges in terms of when you look going forward to say thirty years into 2050 but then it's going to be ten billion people on the planet we need to feed those chemistry is gonna be the enabling technology if you want to do cars in terms of battery technology chemistry's is an enabling technology behind those those cars in terms of lightweight so it's getting them to infuse enthusiasm in schools to understand that they can be a part of the new world that's coming than you whether it's digital technologies or understanding innovating in product so how far will the connected supply chain and automation take us and can you see customer having their computers choosing their own product production slots in your factory or ordering products without any human interaction I'll take these centers of I think you'd starting to see some bit already and says when you look at different business models you could already buy by chemicals to delights Fama's on or Alibaba so at a click you can order it there are people in the back background you still have to do the programming there's two people involved so they're still in the skills of that but in terms of that that ERP cloud supply chain it's already there you may not know it it is developing time and time in terms of front-end systems I worked in terms of commercial director and looking at new business models how we do this in terms of customer related systems so they're like web shops in terms of so you not only can look at your your products you can download your your data sheets you can get in terms of terms of information in terms of formulations online in terms of what you're trying to do so in terms of helping the customer in terms of what they're trying to do so it's it's a bit interactive like that so you couldn't you may not speak to somebody but there's somebody in the background feeding that information so a bit like you would do on a shop until you've got a question so you say ok I'm working on this type of formulation what does that mean and then there's a there's a there's either an algorithm or a person in the background supporting the customer on that and then the customer can then click and say ok I want this product and I want it at this at this time in terms of and if it fit fits through and they'll they'll get a a yes or no can we deliver it do we have it in stock does it have is it batch process or is it so these systems are all already in the making if not already there yeah so it's it's it's really it's consumer writing in a way isn't it if that's even a word that exists it's making it more accessible as I like like the Amazon who were speaking now incidentally over at the other side of the room so it's putting that kind of business model linking it more to the industry that weird that we're more familiar with yeah what does the bit what does business want or what is then there the end consumer wants and how do you you you meet that demand yeah and you've got to look at different different aspects in terms of what what does the industry need and how do we or as BSF internal or the chemical industry meet that demand if that is more online services then we would have to go if we're not then that we won't be here and and right through our hundred and fifty for you and it's about what does our customers want and how do we meet those those customer demands I think there's still a people element I think you you can have these virtual systems but there are still people there it's Matt but making sure that we have the right skills for the industry and that's how do we up school in terms of how do we get the training right where it's through the manufacturing side whether it's through the innovative side that chemic chemistry so because the ideas still need to be generated and I think whether that's true computer programming electronic engineering whatever it would yeah it's about getting the right people in the right place
Hi, I'm Scott Wolla and this is the Economic
Lowdown Video Companion. If you listened to Episode 7 in our podcast
series, you'll know it's all about supply. Economists define supply as the quantity of
a good or service that producers are willing and able to offer for sale at each possible
price during a given time period. For example, let's say I own a firm that produces
and sells widgets – a piece of hardware people used to improve the performance of their computers. My objective as a business owner is to make
a profit, which is the difference between my cost of producing the widgets, and the
price that I receive for selling the widgets to buyers. The law of supply says that as the price of
a good or service rises, the quantity of the good or service also rises. Likewise, as the price of a good or service
falls, the quantity of the good or service also falls. Notice that I included only two variables:
price and quantity. That's all the law of supply does; it states
how a change in the price of a good or service will affect the quantity supplied. Picture This: If we put the quantity of widgets on the X,
or horizontal axis of a graph, and the price of widgets on the Y, or vertical axis, we
can start to plot the relationship between the two variables. I will only produce a larger quantity of widgets
if the market price of widgets increases. The same principle can be applied at each
possible price, and by connecting the points on the graph, we'll begin to see an upward-sloping
line. The upward slope means that there is a direct
relationship between price and quantity supplied: when price rises, the quantity supplied rises,
and when price falls, the quantity supplied falls. In fact, we could recreate this same scenario
with almost any good or service and get the same result-an upward-sloping line. This upward-sloping line is called a supply
curve. The supply curve is a helpful tool, but it
is not static or unchanging. It shifts back and forth as conditions in
the market change. For example, if new technology allowed me
to produce widgets at a substantially lower cost than my current production cost, the
increased profit would cause me to increase my production of widgets. In this case, the original supply curve no
longer tells the whole story: it must be shifted to the right to accurately reflect the new
widget supply. Or, put another way, the widget-supply curve
shifted to the right because the quantity of widgets supplied by me-and other widget
sellers-would be greater at each of the given prices. Or, consider a change of the cost of inputs
to the production process. Let's assume that widgets are made of copper. If copper prices rise, my cost of producing
widgets would rise as well. This higher cost of production would mean
that my profits-the difference between my costs and the price-would be lower than before,
so I would produce and sell fewer widgets. Other widget producers would likely do the
same. This would shift the widget supply curve to
the left. Other things that might cause a supply-curve
shift to the right or to the left include a change in the number of producers in the
market; government policies, such as taxes, subsidies and regulations; and expectation
of future prices. We call these factors a change in market conditions. Notice we have describe two types of movements:
a shift along the curve that we call a change in the quantity supplied that reflects the
change in price, and the shift of the curve that we call the change in supply that reflects
in change in market conditions. That's all the time we have for today. Thanks for watching. This video is brought to you by the Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information, visit us online at stlouisfed.org.
the supply chains actually really matter the people lose their jobs when products don't turn up because factories closed and they're actually when supply chains happen well it means that someone's wedding dress arise on the day they're getting married another day after these things really really matter and that when we're doing these things we do it to join the world up to create a more prosperous safe and secure future and we're doing it in a way that contributes to yes your well-being as an employee yes your families will be because they enjoying that too but we're also working in a way which respects the community enhance the environment and will hand our world on and a better state than it was at the beginning and we do you think oh I made some money at the same time how cool is that thank you very much thank you very much I don't know if you keep that book
now your forecasts for the world economy have a new terrifying dimension to them according to Weiss and Broderick these powerful cycles will converge in late October of this year and as these cycles come together they will form a super cycle with enormous destructive potential as and when a government's back is up against the wall you can always count on one thing they lash out at their own citizens if you haven't subscribed to me subscribe and also please share this this is important information that needs to get out there to other people the perfect storm the economic earthquake and tsunami that soon to follow is gonna hit it has to hit and they're gonna talk about four phases of how the thing will hit one before where we are now to Phase two is Japan Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of 250% in other words everything that their economy earns in a year their debt is two hundred and fifty percent more than that and as a catastrophic failure ready to happen the they're also going to talk about megacycles and they're all converging they're all converging pay attention to this at the same time there's a war cycle the debt cycle income inequality civil unrest but the pension crisis the defaults the debt the migrants like they're just all coming at the same time so pay attention to this video wise research I followed their financial advice and as a result of it I have been able to buy my home because I made very good money following what they suggested so these folks have been spot on for a long time I've watched them for a long time pay attention to this video and do what you think you need to do like get ready okay enjoy Thanks Martin Weiss semi-retired and traveling the world has abruptly interrupted his travels to rush home and bring you a very disturbing forecast about the future it's probably our most important forecast ever in the 46 years since I founded this company and it is frightening while mr. Weiss was overseas Sycho expert Shawn Broderick has reached equally shocking conclusions due to a convergence of time-honored economic cycles most people don't understand the cycle of war and most people don't realize that nearly all the cycles we study are now converging hello and welcome today the experts of the Edelson Institute are releasing major new forecasts this is a very significant event in the investment world and the reason is clear their previous forecasts have proven to be amazingly accurate they warned of a 1987 stock market crash several months in advance as well as the explosive recovery that followed immediately afterwards in 2006 and 2007 they warned that the real estate boom was about to end and that it would trigger a massive debt crisis stock market crash and recession they are well known for publicly calling every major up-and-down move in the gold market since 1999 more recently they forecast the election of Donald Trump and the great bull market in stocks that followed two of the Institute's most prominent experts are here with us today dr. martin d weiss the chairman and co-founder of the Institute and cycles experts Shawn Broderick senior editor of the Institute thank you so much for joining us today gentlemen thank you now your forecasts for the world economy have a new terrifying dimension to them it's probably our most important forecast ever in the 46 years since I founded this company and it is frightening tell me how do you know that these things are actually going to happen well because of economic cycles that have driven world events since before the time of the Pharaohs the same cycles in the investment markets that actually triggered the Great Crash of 1929 and every and bust sense and now once again these cycles are coming to a head you know I'm personally well aware of how powerful these cycles are from my studies as well they're everywhere in the universe they're everywhere in nature like our heartbeat or the earth rotating on its axis they're revolving around the Sun you see I do pay attention to you guys I've learned something yes okay and then in that case you've also learned that human economic behavior is also very cyclical in my younger days I was a cultural anthropologist and I specialized in what's called economic anthropology so in my fieldwork I personally witnessed the cycles in small agricultural communities and all over the world I did field work on primitive cultures and peasant societies and and I saw how their entire life their entire livelihood was tied to the seasons fascinating but what's even more interesting for me in what I do today is that in modern society we also see those cycles and we see them for example in mass psychology and the difference is that we not only see them but we can measure those cycles with in in price behavior in statistics and we can see them with much better clarity than I did for example doing fieldwork in the Amazon or other parts of the world and those cycles are Sean's great passion sean is the first person in our organization who wrote extensively about what he calls the great super cycle right yes and as we watch these cycles we can track them and here's the interesting thing when you're watching a cycle you can also predict what it's going to do next this is especially true of certain commodities like metals which are very cyclical but it's also true for a whole range of economic cycles so fascinating perspectives who first discovered these cycles Great Depression should have been very predictable how did he do that well first do we discovered cycles and the prices of copper as I told you metal prices are very cyclical and he looked at nickel and he looked at the grain market and then he connected those cycles to cycles of inflation and deflation and so he put all this together and eventually he uncovered the economic cycles in terms of the gross domestic product or GDP and his GDP cycle actually predicted the Great Depression years ahead of time look at this chart here's a prediction if you look at that 20-year cycle the red line going down at the very right that's what a cycle predicted and then there's the black line that represents the actual events and that plunges as the Great Depression got underway so as you can see it it falls the prediction with uncanny accuracy and as you see on this chart it it it shows the timing of the cycles so is this the main cycle that you use at the Edelson Institute well it's one of them yes but we combine that with other cycle business inventory cycle eight and twelve year stock market cycles the 12-year cycle in the currency markets and of course these cycles in the gold market and that all comes together mm-hmm with computer studies with with visual studies on the on the chart and but I want to add one thing that that we haven't stressed as much in the past but we have to talk about now and that's another major cycle that's going to put tremendous pressure on the global economy and it's one of the most powerful cycles of law which is the cycle of war the cycle of war you seem surprised well okay let me clarify am I surprised that we're talking about the threat of war no of course not because it's it's in the news every day it's all around us it's in Northeast Asia the Middle East Ukraine I get that am I surprised that it can be predicted absolutely well let me tell you you know I studied the cycle of war contemporary primitive societies in the highlands of New Guinea for example I studied the war pattern of the unit mami tribes in the Amazon hmm I've studied the history of war going back to the birth of civilization which was in Sumer and Babylonia between the affray T's and the Tigris Rivers which is now Iraq and you know to answer your question the studies of the cycle of war are based on these thousands of years of recorded history and quite some time ago it predicted that there would be a bottom in other words a peaceful time in in the late 1980s in the early 1990s and in in fact that bottom Ashley came on Christmas Day of 1991 which is the day that the Soviet flag came down over the Kremlin in Moscow for the last time and when the Cold War ended that was a gift so we have the benefit of hindsight but what about now well looking forward the top in the war cycle the end or the climax of the water cycle is expected in the early 2020s that's not far away today from very close no but the key is that the cycle of war is ramping up rapidly if as we speak it's ramping up with great power it has great momentum and that leads us to our first and most urgent forecast which is the consequences of war are you sure there will be a war well that's not the point war is not the forecast the forecast is the consequences so even if you don't have an all-out shooting war and let's pray that we won't that's pray the rising tide of global conflict will force the largest countries in the world to spend massive amounts of new money on defense and we're already seeing this all around the world it's going to force them to borrow massive amounts of money to finance those defense expenditures and and that will cause a pile up of new on top of a mountain of old debt that's already the worst of all so in effect the war cycle is going to turbocharge the debt cycle most people don't understand the cycle of war and most people don't realize that nearly all the cycles we study are now converging something like the perfect storm yes you could call it a perfect storm and it's a convergence of cycles can you tell us as the cycles expert something about each of those cycles sure the first is the k wave the contrary of wave yes yeah right with now that is pointing lower into the first half of the 2020s this cycle reflects the ongoing demise of governments that have built up monumental unpayable debt to see how it connects to debts again yeah yeah debts to finance wars that's to finance various forms of socialism or social programs as I mentioned before right the man who originally discovered the cycle was sent to Siberia right and then he was executed by Stalin now you could say that his ghost is returning to haunt all of those who failed to learn the lesson that socialism was a failure hmm along with the Kay wave we have the juggler cycle which was discovered by a French psychoanalyst and it has accurately forecast intermediate booms and busts and it is also pointing to a decline which we believe will be starting in Japan and then there's the 40 month kitchen cycle it is and it's not a kitchen like you cooking that's okay the guy who some of us cook in discovering it is signaling no this cycle is actually signaling slower business formation weaker consumer demand slower inventory turnover and later rising unemployment not a right away in the United States okay it's this is really hitting it more first in foreign major foreign countries right we'll see a foreign wave all right we also like the Kuznets cycle and that one among other things it helps us the rise and fall of elites income inequality is a phrase that is heard a lot now and it's in the final stages of a major rise that began in the 1970s everybody's talking about it today but this cycle predicted it many years ago yeah and now now these cycles are heading for another major convergence we got a preview of this two years ago and was followed by a sequence of events that are now they're like reaching a crescendo the UK the second largest economy in Europe dropped out of the European Union that was the brexit right at the same time we have millions of refugees that are pouring into Europe so that's a lot of cycles with some big names when are they all going to be converging next well the next major convergence should start in late October and early November that's when our cycles which are now turbocharged right by the rising war cycle that's when they indicate the end of an era when these governments could rack up debt with impunity and they also indicate the beginning of a new era when those governments cannot do that it will be the beginning of what you might call a rollercoaster ride through hell yeah and that ride it's gonna last all the way until 2022 that's five full years that doesn't sound like a fun ride what is that going to be like well for add the average observer I think the most obvious symptom of the crisis will be asset destruction and like I said starting overseas and yet here we are with all these things happening and the stock market keeps going up and up so the question is why right yes and the answer is the cycles clearly indicated that this was going to happen we can't foresee exactly what will happen or where what we can foresee and what will not be so obvious to the average person is the ramp up of a series of big government debt blow ups first you'll see them in Japan and Europe and then a couple years from now in the United States to the economic cycles accurately predicted the Great Depression and nearly every major investment event since now those same cycles are predicting that some of the most violent times of our financial lives are about to begin according to Weiss and Broderick these powerful cycles will converge in late October of this year and as these cycles come together they will form a super cycle with enormous destructive potential including the power to bring Japan Europe and ultimately the United States to their knees so what events will drive this great crisis that's what we're here to find out today Martin and Sean thank you so much for joining us again Thank You Lauren for flying down for this event it's my pleasure to be here so it's time to answer the number one burning question we've seen that these powerful financial cycles are warning of a major catastrophe but what are the actual facts on the ground and do those facts support the cycles research and what exactly is this nightmarish crisis really going to look like well Lauren let's not forget the big picture what we are experiencing is a great super cycle okay and what the super cycle predicts is the end of the era when governments recklessly built up unlimited debts and the cycles predict the beginning of a new era when nations pay the price for those debts in other words a financial day of reckoning right yes yes but it won't happen in just one day it will take place in phases over a period of about five years and what are those phases okay I'll tell you phase one is right now before the crisis begins this is a period in which the governments around the world are continuing to borrow like there's no tomorrow they're piling up debts and no one is lifting a finger to stop them I should say no one yet okay mm-hmm all right phase two begins when Japan's government debts begin to crumble that's where it begins Japan yeah okay so that's the key their debts are the worst in the world 250 percent of gross domestic product that's more than twice of that burden of the US government and even if Japan had a budget surplus of 1 trillion each year it would take a thousand years to pay that debt off one found a green Martin you lived in Japan you speak the language yes I lived in Japan during its bubble years they called it the babadook a zai well of the 1980s and I go there all the time to to visit my son Anthony and I can tell you flatly Japan is on a collision course with the worst government that crisis the world has ever seen so what is Japan's solution to this well their solution is to tax people to death you can look it up these are all hard facts it's not our opinion Martin when and where is the breaking point well the breaking point will come as we see it in the bond markets that's the where that governments have to raise the money for toot for these debts they're gonna see the handwriting on the wall like we see today and they're gonna stop buying it all or they'll dump their holdings mm-hmm that's Japan that's Japan phase 2 what's phase 3 okay Japan's phase 2 phase 3 will hit Europe yeah I mean a couple years ago you saw the cycle of debt strike Greece you saw it then hit Portugal Spain and Italy and then that that debt monster came and took Greece again and just shook it like a rag doll it ruined that nation but when you saw in Europe's prior phase of its debt crisis what you saw there that was just a sneak preview of what's coming up you asked about breaking price why now right that's yeah that's j'en well in Europe we see several turning points or tipping points we saw in 2015 1 million migrants pouring into the European Union from from Western Asia from South from South Asia and from Africa and and and that was just in one here and plus here's the key that that everyone seems to be missing right now during the last days of Europe's debt crisis the threat from Russia was virtually non-existent right mm-hmm so so they didn't have to spend a lot of money on defense right if anything they it was just the United States this was helping support the defense yeah so they didn't have to borrow money like crazy for defense spending they didn't have to borrow money like crazy to protect their borders or to protect their citizens but now in this next phase of their debt crisis they will have to do those things so this adds a whole new dimension to the crisis it does so these are the breaking points what is the endgame then for Europe well the picture that we get from the cycle forecast is clear but it's also very grim before the series of rolling crises is over the European Union as we know it it just won't exist anymore in fact it's only gonna make their debt crisis worse and that's going to lead to one place and only one place bankruptcy government bankruptcy yes so you're before we're talking about private sector bankers right now we're talking about something even more severe so you're actually saying that some of the most powerful governments in the world are gonna go bankrupt now the whole process is set to begin at the end of October okay but all of these deaths have been piling up for a very long time you said yourself why are they collapsing now you keep asking that's a no I want an answer here's a simple way to put it it's just time the cycles are like a heartbeat doctors know when a patient is most susceptible to a heart attack right and the cycles give a picture of when that same thing is going to happen with government debt the cycles tell us when these governments around the world are gonna have this massive heart attack some governments are close to their death throes yeah you don't see it from the surface but behind the scenes that's what's happening and they're scratching to stay alive yes and when a government's back is up against the wall you can always count on one thing they lash out at their own citizens yes and this is also why you're going to see government's impose more taxes more control on money more invasions of privacy I think I believe this is a big reason why Trump was elected people wanted him to fix this to reverse this vicious cycle yeah but Trump has inherited a mess the cycle itself and all the powerful forces behind it are obviously much stronger than most people expected why is it so powerful well we saw a debt pile up higher and higher over many decades didn't we that's in 12 or to just compare government debt to GDP the numbers they're staggering yeah most economists used to say and some of them still say the same thing that the limit the absolute limit you could have in government debt was about half of the total economy and that's a lot the percent is 50 percent of GDP in government debt anything more than that extremely dangerous but even after their so-called recoveries Ireland's government debt represents a hundred and five percent of GDP Portugal 129 percent Italy 133 percent Greece a hundred and seventy-six percent and the prime example Japan a whopping 250 percent staggering how can that be well I mean that's not the end of it Germany which is supposedly the strongman of Europe right the richest economy in the European Union it's above the 50 percent danger line to way above the 50 percent rank you line here's the thing that I just have to make clear why now that's your question why not lie right after so many years of filling these widening budget gaps with borrowed money that's what they did they took this money and they tried to fill the gap well they had a crisis a big economic and financial crisis but rather than deal with the crisis they just borrowed money and they borrow more and more money to fill that gap well at some point the returns on the new debt diminish to a big fat zero and that's the point we're at right now yeah okay that's it the big games that Washington and Wall Street played for so long which were supposed to be temporary emergency members became permanent but now they no longer work yeah you know I just read about this the government's are all strained as you said to the breaking point they're taxing all they can they're they're borrowing all they can and they're printing all they're printing all they cats yes that's such a huge impact on our so they're just printing money just to make ends meet and that that can't be good no these are symptoms of these governments around the world that are that are actually dying it's scary but that's what's that last ditch efforts you try to survive you've seen this recently in some European countries they monitor everything that their citizens are doing they engage in capital controls they limit the amount of money you can take out of a bank the and they're moving and we are seeing this they're moving toward an electronic currency because they're afraid of future bank runs and they want more control why an electronic currency because if things get crazy they have an internet banking kill switch throw the switch shut down the banks before anyone can get their cash up I'm almost afraid to ask this but when governments can't pay their debts what happens I hate to say it but this is when it gets really nasty the only place that these governments when they are desperate can get money from is from the people the last time we had a major debt crisis back in 2008 the big governments around the world had to bail out the banks the real estate companies the entire world economy is that what you're talking about here well that's a big part of it they bailed out a lot of people but now comes the mother of all debt crises the government debt crisis we have to emphasize that word government and now the big question is who's going to bail the government's right let me repeat that question who is going to be able to government I mean the government's were the ones that were everybody else right now we've reached the end game yeah who is going to build them out what is the fourth phase okay that's when stuff hits the fan and the debt cycle will hit a crescendo and when this crisis strikes the US and as we Teeter over we are going to collapse with the biggest threat of all the decline in government bonds will take away tens of trillions of dollars in wealth just make it vanish poof and at some point Medicare Social Security socialist programs of all kinds they'll all be in grave jeopardy Sean this is terrifying how certain are you of this very dark scenario that you've painted for us today well we're staking the Edelson Institute's 100 years of collective experience and reputation
– أنا جايكوب كليفورد
– أنا أدريان هيل – وأنا مضيف Crash Course Economics.
– وأنا مضيفة Crash Course Economics. – ستان!
– ستان! أنتما فريق، ستتشاركان في تقديم البرنامج. – حسنًا، هذا رائع.
– أجل، ممتاز! نحن نعد سلسلة Crash Course Economics
في YouTube Space في لوس أنجلوس الجميلة في كاليفورنيا
لأنني أنا والسيد كليفورد من جنوب كاليفورنيا. أجل. من هذان المجهولان؟ أين الأخوين غرين؟
إن لم يكونا موجودين سألغي اشتراكي. كيف يمكنك أن تلغي اشتراكك؟
ما هذا؟ صحيفة متحركة من نوع ما؟ هل قاطعتنا دمى برنامج Muppets؟ يبدو ذلك. مرحبًا. اسمعا، لا تشعرا بالسوء
لأن لونكما ليس أخضر. اتفقنا؟ إنه كيرمت! هذا جنوني! اسمعا، كون المرء أخضر هو أمر رائع،
لكن أن كونكما أدريان والسيد كليفورد أمر رائع أيضًا. وفي الحقيقة، أتعلمان؟
ليس من السهل أن يكون المرء أخضر. أعتقد أن بإمكاني أن أغني أغنية عن ذلك. – أيمكنني أن أغني معك؟ هذا بمثابة حلم يتحقق.
– بالطبع، أجل. كلا، لا يمكننا تحمل تكاليف اتفاق الترخيص
لتلك الأغنية. إنها مسألة اقتصاد. متأسف. في هذه الحالة، لمَ لا تقدما نفسيكما إذن؟ حسنًا، أنا السيد كليفورد، وأنا معلم اقتصاد في
المدرسة الثانوية وأعد فيديوهات على YouTube وسأركز على تعليمكم نظريات
ورسومات الاقتصاد البيانية. أي المادة النظرية. وأنا أدريان هيل. وأنا مراسلة
في برنامج الراديو العام Marketplace وسأركز على إيضاح
التطبيقات العملية للاقتصاد. وأعني المادة الممتعة. مهلاً، نحن الاثنان ممتعان.
بالتأكيد لن نعلم الاقتصاد هكذا: مرحبًا بكم
في Crash Course Economics، يسعدني جدًا أن أدرسكم هذا الموضوع المذهل. متأسف يا بروفيسور هونيدو، لكن هذا سبب كره
الناس للاقتصاد في المدارس الثانوية والجامعات. على أي حال، كان ستاتلر ووالدورف محقين.
أهم سؤال في الاقتصاد هو: "أين جون غرين؟" يعلم الجميع
أنه فاز بميدالية برونزية في الاقتصاد في المباراة العشارية الأكاديمية
لولاية ألاباما. لا يقدم جون غرين البرنامج بسبب الاقتصاد!
سنشرح هذا لاحقًا. لنبدأ بالأساسيات. ما هو الاقتصاد؟ لعل من الأسهل أن نشرح ما لا يمثله الاقتصاد.
الاقتصاد ليس دراسة المال أو جني الثروة، إلا أن فهم الاقتصاد سيساعد في تحقيق ذلك.
الاقتصاد ليس دراسة سوق الأوراق المالية، إنه ليس كذلك. ولا يتعلق الاقتصاد
برجال أنيقين يتوقعون ما سيحدث في سوق معين أو في الاقتصاد الإجمالي.
في الحقيقة، يقوم بعض الاقتصاديين بهذا، لكن هذا ليس المحور الرئيسي للاقتصاد. الاقتصاد هو دراسة الناس والخيارات.
عرّفه الاقتصادي المشهور ألفرد مارشال على أنه: "دراسة الإنسان في الحياة العادية. فهو يبحث في كيفية حصوله على دخله وكيفية
استخدامه. وبالتالي إنه دراسة الثروة من جانب، ومن جانب آخر، وهو الأهم،
جزء من دراسة الإنسان." لنتكلم لوهلة عما هو الاقتصاد أيضًا.
الاقتصاد هو فتاة عمرها 18 سنة تختار ما بين البدء بالعمل وارتياد الجامعة،
وكيف يؤثر هذا على دخلها المستقبلي. الاقتصاد هو شركة تقرر
إما أن تصنّع هواتف ذكية أو حواسيب لوحية، وكيف يتأثر هذا بما نريد نحن المستهلكون شراءه.
الاقتصاد هو الحكومة التي تقرر إما أن تزيد إنفاقها في حالة كساد
أم لا، وهل يستحق الأمر أن تصبح مديونة. إذن، رغم ما قد تظنونه، الاقتصاد
ليس مملاً ورتيبًا. حسنًا، بعضه كذلك، لكن معظمه ليس كذلك، أعدكم. إنه رائع. يمكن لفهم الاقتصاد أن يغير طريقتكم
في التفكير وحل المشاكل إلى الأبد. مهمتنا خلال الـ40 أسبوع القادمة
هي أن نعلمكم مفاهيمًا ستساعدكم على فهم العالم، وجعله مكانًا أفضل. بغض النظر عمن تكونون، ستستخدمون الاقتصاد.
في الحقيقة، إنكم تستخدمون الاقتصاد الآن، لقد اخترتم أن تشاهدوا هذا الفيديو،
هذا يعني أنكم تظنون أن الفائدة تفوق التكلفة. لعلكم تقولون في أنفسكم: "هذا YouTube
لا يوجد ثمن." لكن هناك ثمن بالطبع. يمكنكم أن تشاهدوا فيديوهات عن قطط أو متزلجين
يقعون على وجوههم أو تشارلي وهو يعض أصبع أخيه. تكلفة مشاهدة هذا الفيديو هو الفيديو
الذي لا تشاهدونه، أي قيمة ثاني أفضل بديل. يسمي الاقتصاديون هذا تكلفة الفرصة البديلة.
إن كنتم لا تزالون تشاهدون هذا الفيديو، فيعني ذلك أنكم تعتقدون أنه أفضل
استغلال لوقتكم، وإلا لما كنتم تشاهدونه. لكن قد تتساءلون: "ماذا لو كنت أشاهده
في المدرسة؟ ماذا لو كنت مُجبرًا على مشاهدته؟" لم تُجبروا على الذهاب إلى المدرسة.
يمكنكم أن تتغيبوا عن الحصة أو تتركوا المدرسة أو تذهبوا إلى بلد لا يكون التعليم
فيه إلزاميًا. لكن التكلفة آنذاك ستفوق الفائدة. حتى إن كنتم في المدرسة، لستم مُجبرون
على مشاهدة الفيديو، يمكنكم أن تغمضوا أعينكم أو أن تطأطئوا رؤوسكم. لن يفتح أحد
أعينكم بالقوة، وإلا لكان ذلك أمرًا مرعبًا. والآن لنتحدث عن سبب عدم وجود
جون غرين هنا ليعلّم هذا الدرس. إنه رجل أعمال، فهو يؤلف كتبًا ويدير DFTBA وVlogbrothers
وMental-Floss ويصنع أفلامًا. لكن لا يمكنه فعل كل ما يريد فعله. لقد اطّلع
على فوائد وتكاليف خياراته، وقرر في النهاية أن يمضي وقتًا أكثر في تأليف الكتب.
لذا أتيت أنا والسيد كليفورد لنعلمكم الاقتصاد. وصدقوا أو لا تصدقوا،
لقد شرحنا أهم افتراضين في الاقتصاد كله. أولاً، فكرة الندرة، وهي أن الناس
يملكون رغبات غير محدودة وموارد محدودة. وثانيًا، كل شيء له ثمن، وأعني كل شيء
على الإطلاق. وإن كان هاذان الافتراضان صحيحين، سنحتاج إلى طريقة لنحلل خياراتنا بها
ونستغل مواردنا المحدودة بأكبر قدر ممكن. وهذا هو الاقتصاد. مهلاً، لنعد إلى فكرة الفوائد والتكاليف.
يموت حوالي 30 ألف شخص سنويًا في حوادث سيارات في الولايات المتحدة.
أهناك طريقة لضمان عدم وقوع حوادث مرور أبدًا؟ أجل، يمكننا أن نحطم جميع السيارات
ونغلق جميع الطرق ونجبر جميع الناس على المشي.
سيحل هذا مشكلة حوادث السيارات. أتريدون خفض عدد الناس المدانين بارتكاب
جرائم قتل؟ يمكنكم أن تجعلوا القتل مشروعًا. أتريدون إنهاء المعاملة غير الأخلاقية للفيلة؟
يمكنكم قتل جميع الفيلة، بأسلوب أخلاقي بالطبع. لكن قبل أن تقرروا أن تقتلوا قطعان
من الفيلة برحمة وحنان، فكروا في الأمر للحظة. جميع هذه الحلول منافية للعقل
لأنه من الجلي أن الثمن يفوق المنفعة. حوادث المرور مأساوية،
لكننا لا نمنعها مهما كان الثمن. تعلمون أن هناك مخاطر للقيادة، وأنكم قد
تتعرضون لحادث، لكنكم تستمرون في القيادة. لماذا؟ أولاً، من يود الذهاب إلى أي مكان مشيًا؟ والعودة إلى البيت تحت المطر
سيرًا على الأقدام وأنتم تحملون حاجيات ثقيلة أسوأ بكثير من احتمال
الموت في حادث سيارة شبه المعدوم. المغزى هو أنه لا يمكن للأفراد
والشركات والدول أن تحصل على كل شيء، لذا يجب عليهم أن يدرسوا
فوائد وتكاليف قراراتهم ويقوموا بالاختيار. لنطلع على مثال آخر: يزيد الإنفاق العسكري
في الولايات المتحدة عن 600 مليار دولار سنويًا. هذا قريب من مجموع ما تنفقه البلدان العشرة
التالية في قائمة الإنفاق مجتمعة. يوجد ما يقارب 20 حاملة طائرات في العالم الآن،
وتمتلك الولايات المتحدة نصفها، وتبني المزيد. تكلفة الفرصة البديلة لحاملات الطائرات هذه
قد تكون مستشفيات ومدارس وطرق. إذن، هل تنفق الولايات المتحدة
مالًا مفرطًا على الجيش؟ هل يجدر بها أن تركز على صناعة المسدسات
أم الزبدة؟ وأقصد أسلحة أم سلعًا استهلاكية؟ ولاحظوا أن الكلمة الرئيسية هنا هي "أم"،
فلا يمكننا أن نصنع كمية غير محدودة من الأسلحة والسلع الاستهلاكية على حد سواء
لأننا لا نمتلك عددًا غير محدود من العمال والمزارع والمصانع والمواد الخام.
تعني الندرة أنه يجب علينا أن نختار. شرح الرئيس الأمريكي دوايت آيزنهاور هذا
بأفضل شكل في عام 1953 في خطاب عن تصاعد التسلّح للحرب الباردة. "كل سلاح يُصنع وكل سفينة حربية تُرسل
وكل صاروخ يُطلق، إنما هي في جوهرها سرقة من الجياع الذين لم يتم إطعامهم،
وأولئك الذين يشعرون بالبرد ولم يتم كسوهم. لا ينفق عالم الأسلحة هذا مالاً فقط،
وإنما عرق عماله وعبقرية علمائه وآمال أطفاله." وهذا وقت مناسب لنذكر دور السياسة في الاقتصاد. فنحن لا نروج لسياسة لبرالية مناهضة للجيش، وإنما نوضح أن الإنفاق العسكري
له تكلفة فرصة بديلة، وهي الموارد التي لا يتم استخدامها
لخدمات اجتماعية مثل إطعام الجياع. سنحاول ألا نروج لكم أية أجندة سياسية، سنريكم
كلا الجانبين وندعكم تقررون أيهما الأفضل. لذا لا تقولوا من فضلكم:
"السيد كليفورد يحب الرأسمالية، لذلك إنه محافظ مؤيد للأعمال،"
أو "تتحدث أدريان عن القوانين البيئة، لذلك إنها ليبرالية مضادة للأعمال." أجل، نحن نؤيد الأعمال، وأنتم تؤيدونها أيضًا.
فمن أين تظنون أن حواسيبكم تأتي؟ ذلك الحاسوب
أوصلته لكم الرأسمالية والقطاع الخاص. لكن مع ذلك، فإن الأمن والقوانين
والطرق والمخالفات المرورية، كلها تأتي من الحكومة. يتشاجر المحافظون والليبراليون على التفاصيل،
لكن لا يمكن للسوق الحر حلّ جميع مشاكلنا لوحده. ولا يمكن للحكومة حلّها كلها أيضًا. يستخدم المسؤولون الحكوميون
النظريات الاقتصادية لتوجيه السياسة العامة، وآثارها واسعة الانتشار وتطال مليارات الناس. في بعض الأحيان تكون النظرية معيبة،
لكن في الكثير من الأحيان تكون السياسة معيبة. يعدّل الاقتصاديون السياسات
بناءً على نظرية مدعّمة بالبيانات وفهم الحوافز. يُعد وجود الحافز المناسب أمر أساسي. لكن قد تكون معرفة الحوافز المناسبة أمرًا صعبًا.
انظروا إلى الكليات والجامعات الحكومية مثلاً. كان العديد يتلقى دعمًا حكوميًا
عن كل طالب يسجّل فيها. أي الجامعات كانت لديها حوافز مالية تدفعها
للتركيز على تسجيل أكبر عدد ممكن من الطلاب، لكن ليس لمساعدتهم على النجاح
حالما يبدؤون الدراسة. لذا بدأت الولايات في تغيير الحوافز.
والآن زاد عدد الولايات التي تكافئ الجامعات على عدد الطلاب الذين يكملون مساقات أو يحصلون
على شهادات. ونجح هذا في بعض الأماكن، فقد ساعد الجامعات على زيادة معدلات التخرج
من خلال نقل المال من ميزانيات التسويق إلى برامج تساعد الطلاب على تحقيق نتائج أفضل. لكن يمكن أيضًا أن تعطي هذه الحوافز
نتائج عكسية إن صُممت بشكل سيء. يمكن لجامعة تحصل على المال عن كل خريج دفع
الطلاب لإنهاء دراساتهم دون منحهم تعليمًا جيدًا. وقد ترغب في قبول الطلاب
أصحاب المعدلات المرتفعة فقط بدلًا من أخذ عوامل أخرى
قد تجعلهم مرشحين مؤهلين بعين الاعتبار. وقد تدفع الطلاب لاختيار تخصصات أقل صرامة. لكن يمكن للحوافز أن تساعد
في حل مشاكل دون إضافة موارد جديدة، ولكن علينا فحسب اختيار الحوافز المناسبة. يفترض العديد من غير الاقتصاديين
أن طريقة تحسين أمور مثل الرعاية الصحية هي إنفاق المزيد من المال. لكن الاقتصاديون يشيرون إلى أن أمريكا
تنفق ضعفي ما تنفقه بلدان غنية أخرى للفرد، وفي العديد من الحالات،
يحصلون على نتائج صحية أسوأ. يقول الاقتصاديون أيضًا إنه
بدلاً من إنفاق المزيد من المال، علينا التأكد من أن شركات التأمين
والأطباء والمستشفيات والمرضى لديهم حوافز لتقديم أفضل نوعية رعاية فعالة
ممكنة بأقل تكلفة ممكنة. الفكرة هي أننا إن أخفقنا
في اختيار الحوافز لن تنجح السياسة. حين كانت فيتنام تحت حكم الاستعمار الفرنسي،
أصدر النظام مكافأة على الجرذان للقضاء عليها، حيث كانت تعطي مالاً للناس
مقابل تسليم ذيول الجرذان، ربما لأن أكوامًا من جثث الجرذان
كانت مقرفة جدًا لهم. أعطت الخطة نتائج عكسية، فليجني
صائدو الجرذان أكبر قدر ممكن من المال، كانوا يقصون ذيول الجرذان ومن ثم يطلقونها،
وهذا سمح لها بأن تتكاثر. زادت السياسة من أعداد الجرذان
وزادت الطين بلة. سنتحدث أكثر
عن فكرة الحوافز الضارة هذه في فيديو آخر حين نتحدث عن الأزمة المالية لعام 2008.
لكن للوقت الحالي، لنذهب إلى فقاعة التخيّل. بالحديث عن 2008، ينتقد الناس
الاقتصاديين في بعض الأحيان ويتساءلون: "لمَ لم يتوقعوا الأزمة المالية لعام 2008؟" أو "لمَ لا يمكنهم أن يتفقوا على ما يجدر
بالحكومة فعله وعدم فعله في حالة الكساد؟" تفشل هذه الانتقادات في التمييز
بين الاقتصاد الكلي والاقتصاد الجزئي. جميع هذه الشكاوى هي عن الاقتصاد الكلي تحديدًا.
يدرس الاقتصاد الكلي الاقتصاد ككل، فيبحث في الناتج والبطالة والتضخم وأسعار
الفائدة والإنفاق الحكومي والنمو للبلاد كلها. يجيب الاقتصاد الكلي على أسئلة مثل:
"هل سترتفع نسبة البطالة إن زادت الضرائب؟" و"هل ستحسّن زيادة في الإمدادات النقدية
الناتج أم هل ستزيد التضخم فقط؟" و"هل سيتسبب الركود الاقتصادي في أوروبا
في تباطؤ اقتصاد الولايات المتحدة؟" يظهر خبراء الاقتصاد الكلي على التلفاز أكثر
لأنهم يتوقعون اتجاه الاقتصاد الإجمالي ويعملون مع وسائل الإعلام
والشركات والكونغرس وبنك الاحتياط الفدرالي. لكن أقل من 50 بالمئة من جميع الاقتصاديين هم
خبراء اقتصاد كلي. هناك جانب آخر من الاقتصاد يبحث في أسئلة مختلفة، مثل "كم عامل
يجدر بنا تعيينه لتعظيم الأرباح؟" و"إن أطلقت الشركة المنافسة
الرئيسية لنا منتجها في مايو، متى يكون أفضل وقت لنطلق منتجنا فيه؟" و"ما أفضل وسيلة لمحاربة التغير المناخي،
ضرائب على الوقود أم زيادة في كفاءة الوقود؟" هذه كلها أسئلة اقتصاد جزئي،
فلا تتعلق بتوقع الناتج المحلي الإجمالي أو قياس البطالة، لكنها أسئلة ضرورية
يجب على الاقتصاديين الإجابة عليها. إن كنتم لا تعرفون
ما هو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، أو ما هو معدل البطالة المرتفع أو المنخفض،
لا تقلقوا، سنشرحها لكم لاحقًا. إذن، خبراء الاقتصاد الكلي والجزئي ينتمون
إلى مجموعتين مختلفتين ويطرحون أسئلة مختلفة تحت مظلة أكاديمية واحدة. إن كان الاقتصاد
علم الأحياء، سيكون الاقتصاد الكلي علم البيئة، بينما سيكون الاقتصاد الجزئي
علم الأحياء الخلوي. إن كان الاقتصاد فيزياءً،
سيكون الاقتصاد الكلي علم الكونيات والنسبية، بينما سيكون الاقتصاد الجزئي
الميكانيكا النيوتنية. شكرًا يا فقاعة التخيل. لطالما أردت قول هذا
يا ستان. يمكنني شطبها من قائمتي الآن. تبقّى لي الآن قرع جرس الافتتاح
في بورصة أسهم نيويورك ومصارعة بن بيرنانكي بالأذرع والسباحة
في بركة كبيرة مليئة بالمال مثل العم سكرودج. من الواضح أننا نتخطى التفاصيل، لكننا نعدكم
أن نغطي كل شيء في الـ40 أسبوع القادمة من العرض والطلب وصولًا
إلى السياسة النقدية، سنشرح كل شيء، باستثناء البرك الكبيرة المليئة بالمال. لا يمكننا أن نعدكم
أن تعلم الاقتصاد سيجعلكم أثرياء، لكن يمكننا أن نعدكم
أن تعلم الاقتصاد سينور عقولكم وسيجعلكم صناع قرار أكثر اطلاعًا،
وهذا يجعلنا كلنا في حال أفضل. شكرًا جزيلاً على الانضمام إلينا
وسنراكم في الأسبوع المقبل. شكرًا لكم على مشاهدة Crash Course Economics.
ساهم في إعداده جميع هؤلاء الأشخاص اللطفاء. فهم يعملون في إعداد البرنامج
لأن هناك فوائد مالية وضمنية تغطي تكاليف الفرصة البديلة لهم.
إن أردتم مساعدتهم في الفوائد المالية، فكروا في الذهاب إلى Patreon.
إنه منصة اشتراك اختيارية تتيح لكم دفع أي مبلغ تريدونه شهريًا للمساعدة
في جعل Crash Course مجانيًا للجميع إلى الأبد. شكرًا على المشاهدة.
ولا تنسوا أن تكونوا رائعين.