The Math Behind Basketball’s Wildest Moves | Rajiv Maheswaran | TED Talks


My colleagues and I are fascinated
by the science of moving dots. So what are these dots? Well, it’s all of us. And we’re moving in our homes,
in our offices, as we shop and travel throughout our cities
and around the world. And wouldn’t it be great
if we could understand all this movement? If we could find patterns and meaning
and insight in it. And luckily for us, we live in a time where we’re incredibly good
at capturing information about ourselves. So whether it’s through
sensors or videos, or apps, we can track our movement
with incredibly fine detail. So it turns out one of the places
where we have the best data about movement is sports. So whether it’s basketball or baseball,
or football or the other football, we’re instrumenting our stadiums
and our players to track their movements every fraction of a second. So what we’re doing
is turning our athletes into — you probably guessed it — moving dots. So we’ve got mountains of moving dots
and like most raw data, it’s hard to deal with
and not that interesting. But there are things that, for example,
basketball coaches want to know. And the problem is they can’t know them
because they’d have to watch every second of every game, remember it and process it. And a person can’t do that, but a machine can. The problem is a machine can’t see
the game with the eye of a coach. At least they couldn’t until now. So what have we taught the machine to see? So, we started simply. We taught it things like passes,
shots and rebounds. Things that most casual fans would know. And then we moved on to things
slightly more complicated. Events like post-ups,
and pick-and-rolls, and isolations. And if you don’t know them, that’s okay.
Most casual players probably do. Now, we’ve gotten to a point where today,
the machine understands complex events like down screens and wide pins. Basically things only professionals know. So we have taught a machine to see
with the eyes of a coach. So how have we been able to do this? If I asked a coach to describe
something like a pick-and-roll, they would give me a description, and if I encoded that as an algorithm,
it would be terrible. The pick-and-roll happens to be this dance
in basketball between four players, two on offense and two on defense. And here’s kind of how it goes. So there’s the guy on offense
without the ball the ball and he goes next to the guy
guarding the guy with the ball, and he kind of stays there and they both move and stuff happens,
and ta-da, it’s a pick-and-roll. (Laughter) So that is also an example
of a terrible algorithm. So, if the player who’s the interferer —
he’s called the screener — goes close by, but he doesn’t stop, it’s probably not a pick-and-roll. Or if he does stop,
but he doesn’t stop close enough, it’s probably not a pick-and-roll. Or, if he does go close by
and he does stop but they do it under the basket,
it’s probably not a pick-and-roll. Or I could be wrong,
they could all be pick-and-rolls. It really depends on the exact timing,
the distances, the locations, and that’s what makes it hard. So, luckily, with machine learning,
we can go beyond our own ability to describe the things we know. So how does this work?
Well, it’s by example. So we go to the machine and say,
“Good morning, machine. Here are some pick-and-rolls,
and here are some things that are not. Please find a way to tell the difference.” And the key to all of this is to find
features that enable it to separate. So if I was going
to teach it the difference between an apple and orange, I might say, “Why don’t you
use color or shape?” And the problem that we’re solving is,
what are those things? What are the key features that let a computer navigate
the world of moving dots? So figuring out all these relationships
with relative and absolute location, distance, timing, velocities — that’s really the key to the science
of moving dots, or as we like to call it, spatiotemporal pattern recognition,
in academic vernacular. Because the first thing is,
you have to make it sound hard — because it is. The key thing is, for NBA coaches,
it’s not that they want to know whether a pick-and-roll happened or not. It’s that they want to know
how it happened. And why is it so important to them?
So here’s a little insight. It turns out in modern basketball, this pick-and-roll is perhaps
the most important play. And knowing how to run it,
and knowing how to defend it, is basically a key to winning
and losing most games. So it turns out that this dance
has a great many variations and identifying the variations
is really the thing that matters, and that’s why we need this
to be really, really good. So, here’s an example. There are two offensive
and two defensive players, getting ready to do
the pick-and-roll dance. So the guy with ball
can either take, or he can reject. His teammate can either roll or pop. The guy guarding the ball
can either go over or under. His teammate can either show
or play up to touch, or play soft and together they can
either switch or blitz and I didn’t know
most of these things when I started and it would be lovely if everybody moved
according to those arrows. It would make our lives a lot easier,
but it turns out movement is very messy. People wiggle a lot and getting
these variations identified with very high accuracy, both in precision and recall, is tough because that’s what it takes to get
a professional coach to believe in you. And despite all the difficulties
with the right spatiotemporal features we have been able to do that. Coaches trust our ability of our machine
to identify these variations. We’re at the point where
almost every single contender for an NBA championship this year is using our software, which is built
on a machine that understands the moving dots of basketball. So not only that, we have given advice
that has changed strategies that have helped teams win
very important games, and it’s very exciting because you have
coaches who’ve been in the league for 30 years that are willing to take
advice from a machine. And it’s very exciting,
it’s much more than the pick-and-roll. Our computer started out
with simple things and learned more and more complex things and now it knows so many things. Frankly, I don’t understand
much of what it does, and while it’s not that special
to be smarter than me, we were wondering,
can a machine know more than a coach? Can it know more than person could know? And it turns out the answer is yes. The coaches want players
to take good shots. So if I’m standing near the basket and there’s nobody near me,
it’s a good shot. If I’m standing far away surrounded
by defenders, that’s generally a bad shot. But we never knew how good “good” was,
or how bad “bad” was quantitatively. Until now. So what we can do, again,
using spatiotemporal features, we looked at every shot. We can see: Where is the shot?
What’s the angle to the basket? Where are the defenders standing?
What are their distances? What are their angles? For multiple defenders, we can look
at how the player’s moving and predict the shot type. We can look at all their velocities
and we can build a model that predicts what is the likelihood that this shot
would go in under these circumstances? So why is this important? We can take something that was shooting, which was one thing before,
and turn it into two things: the quality of the shot
and the quality of the shooter. So here’s a bubble chart,
because what’s TED without a bubble chart? (Laughter) Those are NBA players. The size is the size of the player
and the color is the position. On the x-axis,
we have the shot probability. People on the left take difficult shots, on the right, they take easy shots. On the [y-axis] is their shooting ability. People who are good are at the top,
bad at the bottom. So for example, if there was a player who generally made
47 percent of their shots, that’s all you knew before. But today, I can tell you that player
takes shots that an average NBA player would make 49 percent of the time, and they are two percent worse. And the reason that’s important
is that there are lots of 47s out there. And so it’s really important to know if the 47 that you’re considering
giving 100 million dollars to is a good shooter who takes bad shots or a bad shooter who takes good shots. Machine understanding doesn’t just change
how we look at players, it changes how we look at the game. So there was this very exciting game
a couple of years ago, in the NBA finals. Miami was down by three,
there was 20 seconds left. They were about to lose the championship. A gentleman named LeBron James
came up and he took a three to tie. He missed. His teammate Chris Bosh got a rebound, passed it to another teammate
named Ray Allen. He sank a three. It went into overtime. They won the game.
They won the championship. It was one of the most exciting
games in basketball. And our ability to know
the shot probability for every player at every second, and the likelihood of them getting
a rebound at every second can illuminate this moment in a way
that we never could before. Now unfortunately,
I can’t show you that video. But for you, we recreated that moment at our weekly basketball game
about 3 weeks ago. (Laughter) And we recreated the tracking
that led to the insights. So, here is us.
This is Chinatown in Los Angeles, a park we play at every week, and that’s us recreating
the Ray Allen moment and all the tracking
that’s associated with it. So, here’s the shot. I’m going to show you that moment and all the insights of that moment. The only difference is, instead
of the professional players, it’s us, and instead of a professional
announcer, it’s me. So, bear with me. Miami. Down three. Twenty seconds left. Jeff brings up the ball. Josh catches, puts up a three! [Calculating shot probability] [Shot quality] [Rebound probability] Won’t go! [Rebound probability] Rebound, Noel. Back to Daria. [Shot quality] Her three-pointer — bang! Tie game with five seconds left. The crowd goes wild. (Laughter) That’s roughly how it happened. (Applause) Roughly. (Applause) That moment had about a nine percent
chance of happening in the NBA and we know that
and a great many other things. I’m not going to tell you how many times
it took us to make that happen. (Laughter) Okay, I will! It was four. (Laughter) Way to go, Daria. But the important thing about that video and the insights we have for every second
of every NBA game — it’s not that. It’s the fact you don’t have to be
a professional team to track movement. You do not have to be a professional
player to get insights about movement. In fact, it doesn’t even have to be about
sports because we’re moving everywhere. We’re moving in our homes, in our offices, as we shop and we travel throughout our cities and around our world. What will we know? What will we learn? Perhaps, instead of identifying
pick-and-rolls, a machine can identify
the moment and let me know when my daughter takes her first steps. Which could literally be happening
any second now. Perhaps we can learn to better use
our buildings, better plan our cities. I believe that with the development
of the science of moving dots, we will move better, we will move smarter,
we will move forward. Thank you very much. (Applause)

Download Older Version Of Apps – iphone – 100% successful


today KRS Afridi gonna show how to
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iOS 7 while Twitter require IOS 8 first of all go to iTunes on your PC or
Mac click on more then click on apps go to search and search for twitter click on Twitter click on get and sign in with your apple ID the installation will be started when
the installation complete’s close iTunes open App Store on your iOS
device tap update on the right corner tap purchased search for Twitter tap on the cloud icon close app store after a while a menu will appear tap on download the download will be started that’s how you can download
older version of apps on your iOS device it’s not just for Twitter its all apps if
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Business Without Borders


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The big business of video game tournaments


DAGEN: THE BIG BUSINESS OF GAMES , FORTNITE HOLDING ITS FIRST-EVER CHAMPION SERIES THE TOURNAMENT FEATURES MORE THAN $10 MILLION IN PRIZE MONEY WITH THE FINAL TAKING PLACE NEXT MONTH. JOINING US NOW, VIDEO GAME AND E -SPORTS JOURNALIST ROD. GOOD TO SEE YOU, ROD. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE TALK TO ME ABOUT THIS TOURNAMENT>> I MEAN, IT’S AWESOME, THE FORTNITE WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP JUST FINISHED HERE IN NEW YORK, $30 MILLION WAS GIVEN AWAY AND SOME OF YOU MIGHT KNOW THIS 16- YEAR-OLD KID WON $3 MILLION PLAYING FORTNITE, AND NOW, HIS PARENTS CANNOT SAY ANYTHING TO HIM. DAGEN: EXACTLY. CABOT LIKES FORTNITE.>> YEAH, I LIKE FORTNITE WE SAW MORE AND MORE UNIVERSITIES EMBRACING E-SPORTS AND THE UNIVERSITY SPENDING $6 MILLION ON E-SPORTS FACILITY, AND AKRON SPENDING THAT, IS THIS GOING TO BECOME THE NEW COLLEGE FOOTBALL WHERE SCHOOLS ARE RECRUITING E- SPORT GAMERS TO THEIR SCHOOL WITH THESE FACILITIES?>> I MEAN ABSOLUTELY, COLLEGE SCHOLARSHIPS HAVE BEEN BEGINNING IN THE LAST FEW YEARS, THERE ARE MORE SCHOOLS AROUND THE COUNTRY EMBRACING THIS AND FORTNITE IS JUST ONE GAME OF MANY THAT’S GOING ON, RIGHT NOW THIS WEEKEND THERE’S A CALL OF DUTY WORLD CHAMPION CHAMPIONSHIP INDIANA IN LOS ANGELES AND THE EOO WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP JUST FINISHED IN VEGAS AND THAT’S ALL DIFFERENT GAMES AND DIFFERENT DEVELOPERS AND DIFFERENT COMPANIES.>> WHAT KIND OF GROWTH IS THIS GOING TO HAVE? I KNOW A FEW BANKS THAT HAVE ACTUALLY HIRED A DEPARTMENT SO MORE THAN JUST ONE OR TWO RESEARCH PEOPLE TO BEGIN TO FOLLOW THIS AS AN ECONOMIC SECTOR.>> YEAH, I MEAN, VIDEO GAMES PROBABLY YOU TALK ABOUT ON THIS SHOW, ARE A $1 BILLION INDUSTRY.>> BUT I MEAN MORE OF THE E- SPORTS KIND OF.>> BUT BECAUSE VIDEO GAMES IN GENERAL ARE GROWING SO MUCH AND FORTNITE IS A GREAT PREMIER EXAMPLE OF COMPETITIVE VIDEO GAMING THAT’S GROWING THE OVERALL E-SPORTS PIE BECAUSE IN THE HEART OF THEM THERE ARE MULTI-PLAYER COMPETITIVE GAMES, SO THE BIGGEST GAMES IN THE WORLD RIGHT NOW ARE THE COMPETITIVE GAMES THAT EVERYONE IS PLAYING AND IT’S THE CORE THAT IS E-SPORTS AT THE MOST PROFESSIONAL LEVEL. DAGEN: THAT’S ONE REASON, ROD I KNOW IT BOTHERS YOU THAT PEOPLE WILL DISMISS GAMING AND PARTICULARLY AS OH, IT’S ADDICTIVE, LIKE A DRUG, BUT THAT KIND OF IT JUST SHOWS A LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT THE SKILLSET IS, HOW COMPETITIVE IT IS AND HOW IT ACTUALLY CAN TRAIN YOU FOR DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES, EVEN AS A TEENAGER. I MEAN THERE’S A LOT THAT GOES INTO GAMING AND THERE’S A LOT OF GOOD THAT COMES OUT OF IT, RIGHT>> THE CRITICISM IN THAT WAY IS REALLY ABSURD TO COMPARE VIDEO GAMES TO LIKE A TRULY ADDICTIVE DRUG SO LIKE AN OPIOID IS PATHETIC AND THAT SHOULD NEVER BE HAPPENING AND SHOWS A LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT’S GOING ON AND AT THE SAME TIME VIDEO GAMES AN E-SPORTS ARE A SOCIAL ACTIVITY MORE SO THAN REALLY BOTH ACTIVITIES NOW. YOU’RE PLAYING AGAINST PEOPLE FROM AROUND THE WORLD, PLAYING COMPETITIVELY ALL THE TIME, TALKING TO PEOPLE FOR HOURS ON END TO TRY TO GET THAT END GOAL. IT IS A VERY SOCIAL THING NOT ONLY IS IT LIKE NOT PEOPLE THINK THAT IT’S ANTI-SOCIALISTIC ACTUALLY ONE OF THE MOST SOCIAL THINGS THAT YOU CAN DO ONLINE, AND E-SPORTS IS AT THE FOREFRONT OF BRINGING KIDDING TOGETHER FROM AROUND THE WORLD.>> IT’S MORE SOCIAL THAN TAKING SELFIES AND EDITING THEM SO YOU DON’T LOOK LIKE YOURSELF BECAUSE AGAIN, WE ARE A TECHNOLOGY-BASED CULTURE AT THIS POINT, WHERE WE RELATE TO PEOPLE, ONLINE SO IS IT BETTER TO RELATE VIA GAMING, OR ON INSTAGRAM, AND THAT’S ONE OF THOSE QUESTIONS, JACK I KNOW YOU WANTED TO ASK ROD SOMETHING.>> WELL YOU GUYS JUST DESCRIBED ME BECAUSE I’M ANTI-VIDEO GAMES I DON’T LET MY SEVEN-YEAR-OLD PLAY THEM BECAUSE I WANT HIM OUTSIDE PLAYING. I’M A FORMER NFL PLAYING AND MY SCHOLARSHIPS AND MY OPPORTUNITY TO GO ON AND FEED MY FAMILY, SO BUT MY QUESTION TO YOU IS IS YOU GOT ME RECONSIDERING THIS NOW. SO HOW MUCH TIME DOES IT TAKE TO GET REALLY GOOD AT THESE GAMES AND DO I ALLOW MY SEVEN-YEAR-OLD WHOSE A PHENOMENAL ATHLETE AT HIS AGE OFF THE CHARTS DO I ALLOW HIM TO SPEND FIVE HOURS IN FRONT OF THE TV PLAYING VIDEO GAMES VERSUS BEING OUT TRAINING WITH ME?>> HONESTLY FOR COMPETITIVE GAME AND THE GAMES IN E-SPORTS IT REALLY DOES TAKE AS MUCH TIME TO PRACTICE AND TO PLAY AND TO REALLY GRIND YOUR WAY AT THE GAMES AS IT DOES A PROFESSIONAL SPORT. YOU NEED TO PLAY SIX TO EIGHT HOURS A DAY AT THE PROFESSIONAL LEVEL PRACTICE WITH YOUR TEAM AND PRACTICE AGAINST THE BEST PLAYERS IN THE WORLD TO REALLY DO SO AND TO YOUR POINT, REALLY PARENTS SHOULD BE MORE INVOLVED IN WHAT THEIR KIDS ARE DOING VIDEO GAMES ARE BIGGER THAN EVER BEFORE. EVERYONE THAT HAS KIDS HAS A KID PLAYING GAMES, AND IF YOU’RE MORE ACTIVE IN WHAT THEY’RE DOING THEY WILL RESPOND BETTER AND THEY WILL LIKE GOING OUT BECAUSE YOU HAVE AN INTEREST AND YOU SHOW THE INTEREST IN WHAT THEY DO AND WHAT THEY LOVE TO DO AND THEN ALSO BE ABLE TO EXCEED IN IT. DAGEN: I CAN CONNECT THE WORLD OF GAMING TO REAL-WORLD ACTIVITIES, BECAUSE THE YOUNG LIKE TOP TIER NASCAR DRIVER, A FEW OF THEM, LEARNED TO DRIVE BY PLAYING GAMES. THEY ARE GETTING PAID MILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO DRIVE ACTUAL VEHICLES, BUT THEY LEARN THROUGH GAMING, ROD. SO THERE IS THIS INCREDIBLE REAL-WORLD APPLICATION.>> YEAH, BUT IF YOUR KID CAN RUN FAST, JUMP HIGH, AND HAS GOOD PROSPECTS OF GETTING A SCHOLARSHIP DO YOU LET THEM PLAY GAMES? I DON’T KNOW IF I AGREE WITH THAT.>> SOME OF THOSE KIDS LOVE PLAYING GAMES AS MUCH AS THEY LOVE PLAYING TRADITIONAL SPORTS AND SOMETIMES THEY EXCELL EVEN MORE AT THE GAMES. THERE ARE PRO-ATHLETES THAT PLAY GAMES JUST AS MUCH. DAGEN: SO WE CAN ALL GET ALONG AND WE CAN HAVE OUR WORLD ONLINE , WE CAN BE GREAT AT GAMING AND BY THE WAY MAYBE YOUR KID MIGHT BE MORE SUCCESSFUL AT PLAYING VIDEO GAMES THAN PLAYING SPORTS.>> YOU’RE RIGHT.>> THEY HAVE TO LEARN THE PLAY BOOK AND LEARN DIFFERENT DEFENSIVE SCHEMES.>> OH, YEAH I’M TALKING ABOUT GAMES WHERE YOU’RE SHOOTING EACH OTHER AND ALL OF THAT.>> HE COULD BRING $3 MILLION HOME.>> THAT MEANS HE HAS TO PLAY EVERY DAY TO BE THAT GOOD. ALL DAY I DON’T KNOW. DAGEN: I HOPE YOU COME BACK AND I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE DISCUSSION.>> I DID AND ANY TIME YOU NEED ME TO BRING UP E-SPORTS I’M HERE FOR YOU.>> I WON’T TELL YOU WHICH GAMES

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Polish Prime Minister wants Tesla’s Elon Musk to invest in Poland


MIXED BAG FOR THE DOW STOCKS THIS MORNING. OUR NEXT GUEST SAYS HE RECENTLY SPOKE WITH TESLA’S ELON MUSK ABOUT DOING BUSINESS IN HIS COUNTRY. JOINING US NOW IS THE PRIME MINISTER OF POLAND. MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI. I HOPE I GOT THAT RIGHT. WILL YOU GIVE ME THAT? WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.>>THANK YOU. STUART: HONOR TO HAVE YOU WITH US. THAT’S A FACT.>>THANK YOU. STUART: YOU SPOKE WITH ELON MUSK, YOU WAN HIM TO INVEST IN POLAND, BUILD A FACTORY THIS, WHAT TAX BREAKS ARE YOU OFFERING WITH HIM? HE HAS DONE WELL WITH TAX BREAKS IN AMERICA?>>WE HAVE GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR BUSINESS IN POLAND. WE RECENTLY UPGRADED TO DEVELOPED ECONOMY AND AT THE SAME TIME MANY FEATURES OF OUR ECONOMY ARE STILL LIKE IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES LIKE VERY VIBRANT SHUMPER TYPE LABOR FORCE. STUART: YOU’RE OFFERING HIM AN ECONOMY PRIMED FOR THAT KIND OF –>>YES. STUART: ARE YOU OFFERING MORE ON TOP OF THAT, TAX BREAKS? ARE YOU GIVING HIM A TAX HOLIDAY, FOR EXAMPLE?>>FIRST OF ALL WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION WE HAVE QUITE A HARMONIZED POLICY WHAT WE CAN OFFER TO INVESTORS, BUT ON TOP OF THIS WE CAN OFFER A LITTLE BIT MORE. WHY WE’RE SO SUCCESSFUL ELIMINATING UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE POLAND OVER THE LAST FOUR YEARS. STUART: WHAT EXTRA, OVER AND ABOVE WHAT THE EU WILL ALLOW? WHAT EXTRA ARE YOU OFFERING TO HIM?>>OFFERING MONEY TO RETRAIN PEOPLE, TO EMPLOY PEOPLE, SOME TAX RELIEF IN TERMS OF PROPERTY TAX AND ALSO WE’RE OFFERING VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENT. WE HAVE INVESTED A LOT IN ELECTRIC MOBILITY, ELECTRIC CARS, CLEAN BUSES, CLEAN TRAINS, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. THIS IS ALL WHAT SUCH AN INDUSTRY NEEDS. THIS IS WHY LOTS OF INVESTORS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD LIKE — ARE VERY MUCH INTERESTED IN ELECTRIC MOBILITY. STUART: WHAT YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT IS LARGELY MANUFACTURING COMPANIES GOING TO POLAND.>>SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT. WE’RE BECOMING A SILICON VALLEY OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. STUART: ARE YOU?>>RECENT WORLD CUP IN GROUP PROGRAMING IN TOP SIX THERE WERE TWO POLISH UNIVERSITIES. STUART: REALLY?>>YEAH. AHEAD OF MANY AMERICAN UNIVERSITIES. STUART: WE ALWAYS THOUGHT THE HUNGARIANS NEXT DOOR WERE THE GREATEST SOFTWARE PROGRAMMERS IN EUROPE.>>THEY ENVY US. STUART: THEY ENVY YOU?>>ABSOLUTELY. STUART: A TOP HUNGARIAN DIPLOMAT, THAT HE, HUNGARY, VERY CONFIDENT, VERY HAPPEN WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP AND HIS DEMAND EUROPE SPEND A LOT MORE ON DEFENSE. HE SAID THAT. ARE YOU COMFORTABLE WITH THAT STATEMENT? DO YOU WANT –>>WE ARE MORE THAN COMFORTABLE BECAUSE WE ARE ONE OF THE VERY FEW COUNTRIES OF NATO WHICH ALREADY SPENT 2%, PERCENTAGE POINTS OF GDP ON MILITARY EQUIPMENT. STUART: GERMANS WON’T. THE GERMANS WILL NOT SPENT MONEY.>>GERMANS SPENT 1 TO .23. BY THE WAY THEY WANT TO BUY RUSSIAN GAS AND PAYING FOR RUSSIAN GAS IS LIKE PAYING FOR MR. PUTIN’S WEAPONS. STUART: YOU’RE VERY MUCH AT ODDS WITH THE GERMANS.>>WE ARE VERY MUCH AT ODDS WITH REGARD TO IN TERMS OF TRADE, OUR TRADE WITH GERMANY IS VERY, WE HAVE LOTS OF JOINT VENTURES. STUART: YOU WANT TO BUY OUR NATURAL GAS, DON’T YOU?>>WE HAVE STARTED, WE HAVE STARTED TO HAVE SOME LONG TERM AGREEMENTS, 20 YEARS PLUS, AGREEMENTS WITH AMERICAN COMPANIES ON LNG GAS. WE HAVE BUILT VERY BIG TERMINAL IN — DIFFICULT TO PRONOUNCE THIS. STUART: WAIT A SECOND.>>WE ARE IMPORTING AMERICAN GAS THROUGH THIS TERMINAL. STUART: THE RUSSIANS ARE NOT GOING TO BE HAPPY WITH THAT.>>THEY’RE NOT GOING TO BE HAPPY. STUART: ARE THE GERMANS HAPPY WITH THAT?>>GERMANS SHOULD BE HAPPY WITH THIS BUT, THEY ARE BUILDING THIS NORTH SEA, 55 BILLION CUBIC METERS OF CAPACITY OF IMPORTING GAS FROM RUSSIA. WE DON’T LIKE IT. WE, WE ARE EMPHASIZING THAT BUYING GAS FROM MR. PUTIN IS PAYING FOR HIS WEAPONS. SO THEY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE MORE TO NATO AS A WHOLE AND THEY SHOULD NOT BE BUYING SO MUCH GAS FROM RUSSIA. STUART: LAST ONE, SOME PEOPLE HAVE SAID THAT YOU ARE THE TRUMP OF EASTERN EUROPE OR ONE OF THE TRUMPS OF EASTERN EUROPE. ARE YOU COMFORTABLE WITH THAT?>>I DON’T THINK I — THERE IS SUCH A NOTION IS APPROPRIATE BUT ON THE OTHER HAND I VALUE A LOT THAT SOMEBODY IS ACTUALLY DOING WHAT HE BELIEVES IN, LIKE PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THIS IS NOT ONLY IN THE CONTEXT OF NATO AND COMPENSATETURES ON MILITARY WHICH WE SPOKE ABOUT, BUT ALSO FOR INSTANCE THE TRADE DEFICITS, TRADE SURPLUSES WITH CHINA. THE JOBS AROUND US. SO I THINK WE HAVE A VERY GOOD — STUART: MR. PRIME MINISTER, REAL

Trump targets Huawei in latest executive order


TELECOM, OUR TOP STORY IS JUST THAT. U.S.-CHINA TRADE, THE PRESIDENT SIGNED THE EXECUTIVE ORDER YESTERDAY, BANNING TELECOM GEAR FROM FOREIGN ADVERSARIES, TARGETING HUAWEI AND ZTE. THIS AS THE U.S. SAYS TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CHINA ARE LIKELY TO RESUME SOON. CHINA REACTING TO THE TRADE DISPUTE, CUTTING U.S. TREASURY HOLDINGS TO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2017. JOINING ME RIGHT NOW IS COMMERCE SECRETARY WILBUR ROSS. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.>>GOOD TO BE ON. MARIA: ON AN IMPORTANT DAY, THE WHITE HOUSE PUTTING HUAWEI ON NOTICE. TELL US THE RISKS AROUND HUAWEI TELECOM.>>WELL, AS YOU KNOW, WE’RE MOVING INTO A 5G ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL CONNECT EVERYTHING TO EVERYTHING, THE SO-CALLED INTERNET OF THINGS. SO AS EVERYTHING BECOMES INTERCONNECTED, IT CREATES MORE RISK BECAUSE IF SOMEONE DOES SOMETHING UNTOWARD TO THOSE SYSTEMS, IT COULD DISRUPT EVERYTHING. MARIA: SO THERE IS HUAWEI IN THIS COUNTRY ALREADY.>>YES, MANY OF THE RURAL TELECOM CARRIERS ARE ALREADY USING HUAWEI IN THE 4G ENVIRONMENT. AND IN ORDER NOT TO HAVE THEM HAVE TO RIP EVERYTHING OUT, WE’LL BE DEALING WITH THAT SEPARATELY SO THAT THEY WON’T HAVE TO RIP EVERYTHING OUT. MARIA: THATS WAS ONE OF THE ISSUES THAT CAME UP WITH SECRETARY POMPEO WHEN HE SPOKE WITH OUR FRIENDS IN EUROPE. THEY ALREADY HAVE A HUAWEI INFRASTRUCTURE IN PLACE, SAME WITH SEVERAL COUNTRIES IN AFRICA. WHAT’S THE ADMINISTRATION’S PLAN IN DEALING WITH OUR FRIENDS ACROSS THE WORLD, KNOWING THAT THEY’VE GOT HUAWEI TELECOM AND PROBABLY WILL BE SPIED ON OR ESPIONAGE.>>FIRST OF ALL, WE CAN’T FORCE COUNTRIES TO REMOVE THINGS FROM THEIR SYSTEM. WE CAN ONLY ADVISE THEM WHAT WE THINK ARE THE DANGERS. WHAT WE ARE DOING WITH THE ORDER THAT THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT PUT INTO EFFECT YESTERDAY, THEEN YOU AT THIS AT THIS EN THIS AT THIS ENTIHIS AT THIS ENTITYS AT THIS ENTITYLIAT THIS ENTITYLIST THIS ENTITYLISTINHIS ENTITYLISTING,S ENTITYLISTING, U.S. TECHNOLOGY W ENTITYLISTING, U.S. TECHNOLOGY L NOT BE USED IN A WAY THAT’S ADVERSE. THAT’S THE PURPOSE OF THAT. MARIA: LET ME SWITCH GEARS, ASK YOU ABOUT TARIFFS, BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY THIS IS FRONT AND CENTER RIGHT NOW. SECRETARY MNUCHIN SAID THAT THE ADMINISTRATION IS LOOKING AT DELAYING TARIFFS ON STEEL AND FOR MEXICO AND CANADA. WHERE DO YOU STAND ON THAT?>>IT’S NOT A QUESTION OF DELAYING. THE TARIFFS ARE IN EFFECT WITH MEXICO AND CANADA ON STEEL AND ALUMINUM AND THEY HAVE BEEN FOR OVER A YEAR NOW. SO THE QUESTION IS, IS THERE A SUBSTITUTE FOR THE ACTUAL TARIFFS THAT WILL ACHIEVE THE SAME END RESULT OF PROTECTING OUR NATIONAL SECURITY AND CONTINUING THE TREMENDOUS BOOM IN THOSE INDUSTRIES IN THIS COUNTRY. MARIA: IS THERE?>>WELL, WE’LL FIND OUT. WE’RE IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH MEXICO AND CANADA. THERE ARE PLENTY OF WAYS THAT WE COULD DO IT, OTHER THAN THE EXACT ONE THAT WE HAD. WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS NOT PREPARED TO DO IS JUST GIVE BACK ALL THE BENEFITS TO AMERICAN STEEL AND AMERICAN ALUMINUM. AS YOU KNOW, IT’S ONE OF THE GREAT SUCCESS STORIES OF THE ADMINISTRATION. MARIA: BUT DO YOU NEED TO LIFT THOSE TARIFFS IN ORDER TO GET THE USMCA DEAL PASSED AND CODIFIED?>>THE MEXICAN GOVERNMENT ALREADY APPROVED THE LABOR PARTS OF IT, WHICH FROM THEIR POINT OF VIEW WERE THE MOST DIFFICULT PARTS. THEY DID A THAT, KNOWING THAT THE TARIFFS WERE IN EFFECT. AND ACTUALLY THEY SIGNED, AS DID CANADA, THE USMCA ALSO KNOWING THAT THE TARIFFS WERE IN EFFECT. SO WE WILL BE WILLING TO TRY TO ACCOMMODATE THEM, PROVIDED WE ACHIEVE A SIMILAR END RESULT. MARIA: THERE IS A DEADLINE COMING UP IN TERMS OF AUTO TARIFFS AND THIS REALLY IS TARGETING JAPAN AND EUROPE. ARE YOU GOING TO DELAY THOSE TARIFFS?>>WELL, THE AUTO TARIFF DECISION WILL BE MADE ON THE 18th OF MAY, WHICH IS OVER VERY SHORTLY NOW. THE PRESIDENT CAN DO ANY OF SEVERAL THINGS, ONE, HE COULD IMPOSE THEM ON SOME OR ALL OF THE COUNTRIES. HE COULD IMPOSE A VARYING AMOUNT. HE COULD DECIDE A THAT WE MADE ENOUGH PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE VARIOUS AUTOMAKERS ABROAD. HE COULD DECIDE TO LET THOSE NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE FOR UP TO 180 DAYS. MARIA: I GUESS WHAT I’M ASKING, MR. SECRETARY, IS IS THERE A REASSESSING GOING ON, ABOUT THESE TARIFFS, ABOUT PUTTING TARIFFS ON AUTOS FROM EUROPE AND JAPAN, ABOUT TARIFFS THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE, MEXICO AND CANADA, GIVEN THE FIGHT WITH CHINA?>>WELL, THOSE ARE THREE SEPARATE ISSUES. THE AUTO THING IS VERY IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT OUR TRADE DEFICIT, ABOUT HALF OF IT IS GEOGRAPHIC IN NATURE, THAT’S CALLED CHINA. THE OTHER HALF IS A PRODUCT BY NATURE, THAT’S CALLED AUTOMOTIVE. IF WE DON’T DEAL WITH BOTH CHINA AND AUTOMOTIVE, WE’RE NOT GOING TO SOLVE OUR TRADE DEFICIT. MARIA: BUT IT’S MORE THAN TRADE, RIGHT? YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES AROUND CHINA.>>HUAWEI IS A WHOLE DIFFERENT SITUATION. NATIONAL SECURITY IS DIFFERENT. BUT YOU WERE ASKING ABOUT THE TRADE PART. AND THE TRADE PART HAS THOSE TWO MAIN COMPONENTS. MARIA: I WANT TO ASK SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE AUTO TARIFFS BECAUSE WE HAVE AN ECONOMY THAT’S OBVIOUSLY BOOMING, THREE AND A QUARTER PERCENT GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER. A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE WORRIED THAT THE TARIFFS ARE GOING TO CUT INTO GROWTH THAT WAS IMPLEMENTED AS A RESULT OF YOUR ADMINISTRATION’S POLICIES.>>WELL, REMEMBER THEY WERE SCREAMING THE SAME THING WHEN WE PUT THE L STEEL AND ALUMINUM IN AND WHAT HAPPENED. WHAT HAPPENED WAS STEEL AND ALUMINUM GOT REVIVED. THOSE INDUSTRIES ARE BOOMING. STEEL ALONE HAS GOTTEN $13 BILLION OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AS A RESULT AND THE EMPLOYMENT BOTH IN STEEL AND ALUMINUM THEMSELVES AND THE DOWNSTREAM INDUSTRIES HAS GONE UP. DID NOT GO DOWN. IT WENT UP. SO THESE GLOOM AND DOOM THINGS ARE BY PEOPLE WHO ARE IDEA IDEALOGICALLY OPPOSED TO US TAKING A STRONG STAND TO DEFEND AMERICA. MARIA: I UNDERSTAND. THE SITUATION WITH CHINA HAS WORSENED.>>I DON’T THINK IT’S WORSENED. MARIA: THEY RENEGED ON EVERYTHING.>>WE MADE A LOT OF PROGRESS IN THE NEGOTIATIONSES. THEY THEN FOR WHATEVER REASON DECIDED TO BACKTRACK. WE’VE THAT, WE’RE FARTHER ALONG THAN THEY WERE BEFORE. AND MEANWHILE, THE PRESIDENT CONVINCED THEM — THEY BOUGHT MORE SOYBEANS DURING THE NEGOTIATING PERIOD, THEY BOUGHT A LOT OF THINGS. SO I WOULD NOT SAY THAT WE’RE IN WORSE SHAPE. WHERE WE ARE IS DOWN TO THE REAL CORE OF IT. ARE WE GOING TO HAVE STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE CHINESE ECONOMY OR NOT? IF NOT, WE’RE JUST NOT GOING TO DO IT. IT’S NOT ENOUGH THAT THEY CAN BUY US OFF WITH A FEW MORE SOYBEANS, LITTLE BIT MORE LNG, A FEW MORE BOEING PLANES. WE NEED STRUCTURAL CHANGE. MARIA: THEY WOULD NOT AGREE TO MAKING IT A LAW, CODIFYING A LAW, PUTTING IT INTO CHINESE LAW THAT STEALING I.P. IS AGAINST THE LAW. THEY WOULDN’T MAKE THAT CHANGE.>>WELL, THERE WAS A WHOLE SERIES ABOUT SIX BIG STRUCTURAL CHANGES, THAT’S ONE SET OF ISSUES. THEN THERE’S ANOTHER WHOLE SET OF ISSUES ENFORCEMENT AND PENALTIES. BECAUSE IF YOU JUST HAVE A WRITTEN AGREEMENT, WHICH IS THE WAY OUR TRADE AGREEMENTS USED TO BE, BUT NOT A REAL ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM, YOU DON’T HAVE A VERY USEFUL DOCUMENT. MARIA: RIGHT. SO GIVEN THE FIGHT WITH CHINA, LET ME ASK YOU AGAIN ABOUT ALL OF THESE TARIFFS. TARIFFS ON CANADA AND MEXICO, DO YOU THINK THEY GO AWAY NOW THAT WE NEED USMCA PASSED?>>YOU’RE CONSISTENT LATE>>YOU’RE CONFLSTENT LATE>>YOU’RE CONFLATENT LATE>>YOU’RE CONFLATINT LATE>>YOU’RE CONFLATING LATE>>YOU’RE CONFLATING AATE>>YOU’RE CONFLATING A CE>>YOU’RE CONFLATING A COUPLE ISSUES. WE’RE PREPARED TO TALK ABOUT OTHER WAYS TO PROTECT THE AMERICAN STEEL AND ALUMINUM INDUSTRIES. THERE’S LOTS OF DIFFERENT WAYS TO SLICE THAT. THEY NEED TO PROTECT THEIR BORDERS AGAINST TRANS SHIPMENT. THAT’S ONE ISSUE. ANOTHER ISSUE IS WE DON’T WANT TO DEAL WITH A SITUATION WHERE OUR ACTIONS AGAINST STEEL AND ALUMINUM GLOBALLY SUDDENLY RESULT IN EXCESS CAPACITY IN CANADA OR MEXICO. THAT DOESN’T SOLVE ANYTHING. WE NEED PROTECTION AGAINST THOSE CERTAIN THINGS. TARIFFS ARE ONE WAY TO GET IT. THERE ARE OTHER WAYS TO GET IT. THE END RESULT MUST BE THE SAME. THE FORM CAN CHANGE. MARIA: ON THE AUTO TARIFFS, SHOULD WE EXPECT A DELAY IN PUTTING ANY TARIFFS IN PLACE ON AUTOS COMING FROM JAPAN AND EUROPE?>>WELL, AS I SAID, THE PRESIDENT HAS A WIDE RANGE OF OPTIONS WHICH HE WILL DECIDE ON BY THE 18th. THE REASON FOR THE 18th, THAT’S THE 270 DAYS FROM WHEN I RENDERED TO HIM THE REPORT. BUT HE HAS A RANG OF ALTERNATIVES. HE COULD DELAY THEM OR NOT JUST DELAY THEM, HE COULD SAY THE NEGOTIATIONS THAT AMBASSADOR LIGHTHIZER, LARRY KUDLOW AND I HAVE HAD WITH THE EUROPEAN, KOREAN AND JAPANESE CAR PEOPLE, HE COULD ALLOW MORE TIME FOR THAT.

Google is biased by design says Director of ‘The Creepy Line’


STUART: BETTER GET BACK TO A STORY WHICH THIS PROGRAM BROUGHT YOU YESTERDAY. FORMER EDITOR OF “PSYCHOLOGY TODAY” WENT ON THE RECORD IN FRONT OF CONGRESS AND SAID GOOGLE MANIPULATED VOTES IN THE 2016 ELECTION BECAUSE OF BIAS IN SEARCH. ROLL TAPE.>>YOU TESTIFIED BEFORE THIS COMMITTEE THAT GOOGLE’S MANIPULATION OF VOTES GAVE AT LEAST 2.6 MILLION ADDITIONAL VOTES TO HILLARY CLINTON IN THE YEAR 2016. IS THAT CORRECT?>>THAT’S CORRECT.>>YOUR TESTIMONY IS THAT GOOGLE IS, THROUGH BIAS IN SEARCH RESULTS, MANIPULATING VOTERS IN A WAY THEY’RE NOT AWARE OF?>>ON A MASSIVE SCALE.>>IF UNDERSTOOD YOUR TESTIMONY CORRECTLY, YOU SAID IN SUBSEQUENT ELECTIONS, GOOGLE AND FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AND BIG TECH’S MANIPULATION COULD MANIPULATE AS MANY AS 15 MILLION VOTES IN A SUBSEQUENT ELECTION?>>IN 2020, IF ALL THESE COMPANIES ARE SUPPORTING THE SAME CANDIDATE, THERE ARE 15 MILLION VOTES ON THE LINE THAT CAN BE SHIFTED WITHOUT PEOPLE’S KNOWLEDGE AND WITHOUT LEAVING A PAPER TRAIL FOR AUTHORITIES TO TRACE. ASHLEY: GOOD GRIEF. STUART: I CALL THAT REALLY POWERFUL STUFF. HOWEVER, YES, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT DR. EPSTEIN’S METHODOLOGY AND HOW HE CAME UP WITH THOSE NUMBERS. WITH US NOW, THE DIRECTOR OF THE CREEPY LINE, THAT’S A DOCUMENTARY ABOUT BIG TECH FINDING ITS WAY INTO OUR PERSONAL LIVES. BEFORE WE GET TO HIM, JUST ROLL THIS CLIP. ROLL TAPE.>>YOU’RE SEARCHING FOR THE MOST PRIVATE STUFF ON GOOGLE, THINGS THAT YOUR WIFE OR SPOUSE MIGHT NOT WANT YOU TO KNOW ABOUT.>>FACEBOOK CONSTANTLY MANIPULATES THEIR USERS. THEY DO IT BY THE THINGS THEY INSERT INTO THE NEWS FEED. THEY DO IT BY THE TYPES OF HOSTS THEY ALLOW THEIR USERS TO SEE. STT THE DIRECTOR OF THE MOVIE WITH THE CLIP OF WHICH YOU JUST SAW IS WITH US. WELCOME BACK TO THE PROGRAM.>>GLAD TO BE HERE. STUART: IS THERE ANY WAY TO PROVE THE NUMBERS WHICH DR. EPSTEIN WAS USING?>>LOOK, AT THIS POINT, WE DON’T HAVE PROOF THAT THESE VOTES WERE MOVED. ONE THING WE DO KNOW IS THAT THE WAY THE GOOGLE SEARCH ENGINE WORKS, IF I SEARCH FOR STUART VARNEY, IT HAS TO DO TWO THINGS. IT HAS TO SELECT PAGES OUT OF BILLIONS OF PAGES, BIAS NUMBER ONE, AND HAS TO PUT THEM IN AN ORDER. SO THE ENGINE IS BIASED BY DESIGN. THAT’S THE BASELINE. WHEN GOOGLE SAYS THERE’S NO BIAS, IT IS BIAS. IF I SAY WHICH IS THE BEST CANDIDATE, IT HAS TO PUT ONE FIRST. SO THE METHODOLOGY WHICH HE USES SHOWS THAT THERE’S POTENTIAL FOR MANIPULATION IF THEY SO CHOOSE. THAT IS THE IMPORTANT THING HERE. IF THEY SO CHOOSE. GOOGLE SHOWS ANY BIAS INTERNALLY TOWARDS ONE CANDIDATE OR ANOTHER, THE POTENTIAL THAT DR. EPSTEIN SHOWED IS THERE TO DO WHAT HE SAID THEY COULD DO. STUART: BUT WE DON’T KNOW THAT THEY ARE ACTUALLY DOING THAT. FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE 2010 ELECTION, FACEBOOK SENT OUT A MESSAGE, GET OUT THE VOTE, LIKE A PUBLIC SERVICE MESSAGE, GET OUT THE VOTE. THEY SENT IT TO 60 MILLION PEOPLE. BUT MY UNDERSTANDING IS THEY ONLY SENT IT TO DEMOCRATS. THEY KNEW WHO THEY WERE. THAT SHIFTED 360,000 VOTES. ACCORDING TO DR. EPSTEIN. IT SOUNDS VALID TO ME.>>LOOK, IT IS DEFINITELY — HE WAS PROPOSING A MONITORING SYSTEM TO CALCULATE BIAS. THAT IS WHAT HE’S PROPOSING. HE SAYS BECAUSE THESE POTENTIALS ARE THERE AND BECAUSE WE SAW STATISTICAL BIAS, STATISTICAL BIAS IN THE SEARCHES OF THE PEOPLE THAT WERE IN THE STUDY, WHAT IT SHOWS IS IT WAS BIASED TOP TEN FOR HILLARY CLINTON. THAT IS WHAT HIS RESEARCH SHOWED. AGAIN, WHETHER IT HAPPENED, WE DON’T KNOW. BUT WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE AND HIS RESEARCH, THE PEOPLE HE STUDIED, IT DID HAPPEN. NOW, WHETHER IT CONVERTED TO A VOTE, I CANNOT SAY. STUART: WE CANNOT CONFIRM –>>WE CANNOT CONFIRM. STUART: — THE NUMBERS.>>WE CAN CONFIRM HIS RESEARCH IS EXTREMELY VALID. THE METHODOLOGY IS VERY SOUND BECAUSE THE ENGINE IS BIASED BY DESIGN. STUART: THAT GENTLEMAN, DR. EPSTEIN, IS IN FACT A VOTER FOR HILLARY CLINTON.>>ABSOLUTELY. STUART: HE WAS PUBLICLY VERY MUCH IN FAVOR OF HILLARY CLINTON.>>ABSOLUTELY. STUART: IN THE 2016 ELECTION. WHAT TO ME, IT’S SO INSIDIOUS BECAUSE YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT THEY’RE DOING. THEY HAVE ASTRONOMICAL POWER BETWEEN THEM. THERE ARE THREE MULTI-BILLIONAIRES, ALL OF THEM ARE WORTH $50 BILLION PLUS, AND THEY ARE THE NEW BIG BROTHERS. THAT’S THE WAY IT SEEMS TO ME.>>NO, IT IS. I MEAN, THIS IS THE THING. I KNOW DR. EPSTEIN VERY WELL. WE HAVE GONE THROUGH THE RESEARCH. EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF A COMPANY DOING THIS IS DANGEROUS AND UNDERMINES DEMOCRACY AND HIS RESEARCH, REMEMBER, HE DID THE TEST IN INDIA IN 2014, HE DID IT IN 2016 AND HE DID IT AGAIN IN 2018. SO WE HAVE MANY ELECTIONS THAT HE HAS DONE THIS RESEARCH IN THAT HAVE SHOWN SIMILAR RESULTS, IF NOT THE SAME RESULTS, AND LOOK, AT THE VERY LEAST, JUST LET US KNOW IT’S NOT HAPPENING, GOOGLE. BE TRANSPARENT. IF IT’S NOT HAPPENING, THEN SHOW US.

Wilbur Ross confirms US will delay Huawei ban


ABOUT IT, ALL THE STORIES COMING UP MONDAY MORNING, FIRST TOP STORY THIS HALF AN HOUR, U.S. AND HAUWEI, NEW REPORT THAT IS THE U.S. WILL GIVE HAUWEI ANOTHER 90 DAYS TO BUY FROM AMERICAN SUPPLIERS, THE PRESIDENT BUSHING BACK ON THE TELECOM GIANT, WATCH.>>HAUWEI IS A COMPANY WE MAY NOT DO BUSINESS WITH THEM AT ALL, WE ARE ACTUALLY OPEN NOT TO DOING BUSINESS WITH THEM. THEY ARE SECTIONS OF HAUWEI LIKE FURNITURE AND OTHER THINGS WE CAN DO BUT WHEN YOU CUT OUT SECTIONS IT GETS COMPLICATED, WHAT IS BEING SOLD, WHAT’S COMING IN, SO AT THIS MOMENT IT LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKE WE ARE NOT GOING TO DO BUSINESS, I DON’T WANT TO DO BUSINESS AT ALL BECAUSE IT IS A NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT AND I REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE MEDIA HAS COVERED DIFFERENT THAN THAT. MARIA: CHIP MAKER STOCKS RALLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF HAUWEI CONFIRMATION AS YOU SEE, 2%, INVIDIA, QUALCOMM. ALWAYS PLEASURE TO SEE YOU.>>GOOD TO BE HERE, MARIA. MARIA: CAN YOU CONFIRM THAT YOU ARE EXTENDING THE DEADLINE?>>THE BIG NEWS TODAY THAT WE DECIDED TO ADD 46 MORE HAUWEI SUBSIDIARIES TO THE ENTITY LIST. WHEN SOMETHING IS ADDED TO THE ENTITY LIST IT MEANS THAT THE AMERICAN COMPANIES CANNOT SELL TO IT EXCEPT IF THEY GET A SPECIFIC LICENSE. MARIA: SO –>>NOT ANY SPECIFIC LICENSES THUS FAR. MARIA: SO YOU’RE DOING 46 NEW SUBSIDIARIES MAKING IT TOUGHER ON HAUWEI?>>MAKING SURE THERE’S IN LOOPHOLES IN THE ORIGINAL. WE NOW HAVE MORE THAN 100 SUB — SUBSIDIARIES ON ENTITY LIST. MARIA: TELL ME WHY IT’S IMPORTANT?>>IT’S UNDER LEGISLATION AND ITS PURPOSE IS TO MAKE SURE THAT WE DON’T ENDANGER U.S. SECURITY. THE PRESIDENT YESTERDAY IN HIS NEWS CONFERENCES MADE CLEAR HIS CONCERNS ABOUT NATIONAL SECURITY IN HAUWEI, ADDING MORE ENTITIES MAKES IT FOR DIFFICULT FOR HAUWEI TO GET AROUND THE SANCTIONS. WHAT ABOUT THE DEADLINE TODAY?>>THERE’S ANOTHER 90 DAYS FOR THE U.S. TELECOM COMPANIES, SOME OF THE RURAL COMPANIES ARE DEPENDENT ON HAUWEI, WE ARE GIVING THEM MORE TIME TO WEAN THEMSELVES OFF BUT NO SPECIFIC LICENSES BEING GRANTED FOR ANYTHING. MARIA: OKAY, NEXT DEADLINE WE SHOULD LOOK AT IS NOVEMBER 19TH?>>ROUGHLY NOVEMBER 19TH. MARIA: DO YOU THINK U.S. COMPANIES ARE COMING UP WITH A PLAN TO FILL THAT BUSINESS ONCE THAT — ONCE THAT DEADLINE IS REACHED?>>WELL, EVERYBODY HAS HAD PLENTY OF NOTICE OF IT, THERE’S BEEN PLENTY OF DISCUSSIONS WITH THE PRESIDENT AND THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE CLEAR AND HAS ANNOUNCED SINCE YESTERDAY THAT HE’S VERY CONCERNED ABOUT MORE DEALINGS WITH HAUWEI.>>SECRETARY, TELL ME THE RISK AROUND HAUWEI, WE TALKED ABOUT HAUWEI BEING A NATIONAL SECURITY RISK BECAUSE IT IS A STATE COMPANY, CHINESE COMMUNIST COMPANY, CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHAT THAT MEANS TO VIEWERS?>>WELL, TECHNICALLY HAUWEI SAYS THEY’RE PRIVATELY-OWNED COMPANY, BUT UNDER CHINESE LAW, EVEN PRIVATE COMPANIES ARE REQUIRED TO COOPERATE WITH THE MILITARY AND WITH THE CHINESE INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES AND THEY’RE ALSO REQUIRED NOT TO DISCLOSE THAT THEY ARE DOING SO. SO IT’S A BIG PROBLEM, BUT THE REAL PROBLEM WITH THE HAUWEI IS IN CONNECTION WITH THE 5G BECAUSE 5G BEING SOFTWARE DRIVEN, VERY HARD TO SEPARATE CORE ACTIVITIES FROM PERIPHERAL ONES AND YOU CAN MAKE PRETTY GOOD ARGUMENT THAT YOU CAN SEPARATE, REALLY CAN’T MAKE THAT ARGUMENT WITH 5G AND AS 5G BECOMES THE BIG ACTIVITY, IT BECOMES OF GREATER AND GREATER CONCERN AND THAT’S WHY WE’VE BEEN ADVISING OUR ALLIES TO BE VERY CAUTIOUS IN MAKING THEIR DECISION AND THAT’S WHY CONGRESS HAS PASSED SOME LEGISLATION CONSTRICTING AMERICAN FUNDING OF HAUWEI PURCHASES. MARIA: I SPOKE TO SECRETARY POMPEO ABOUT THIS, HE SAID THAT EUROPE WAS NOT SURE, THEY WERE PUSHING BACK A BIT, DO YOU FEEL THAT OUR FRIENDS IN EUROPE UNDERSTAND THE NATIONAL SECURITY RISK AROUND HAUWEI BECAUSE THEY HAVE HAUWEI TELECOM INFRASTRUCTURE THROUGHOUT EUROPE?>>SURE THEY DO IN TERMS OF THE 3G AND THE 4G, BUT AS I SAID, THOSE ARE VERY DIFFERENT SYSTEMS AND THEREFORE THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS IN 3G AND 4G ARE NOT NEARLY THOSE IN 5G, ALSO THINK ABOUT IT, 5G IS GOING TO AFFECT EVERYTHING, ALL THE WAY FROM GPS TO ANY OTHER FUNCTION YOU CAN IMAGINE AND AS THE INTERNET OF THINGS BECOMES MORE AND MORE EXTENSIVE, NOTHING WILL OPERATE IF SOMETHING INTERFERES WITH 5G, SO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RISK IS FAR GREATER. WITH 3G AND 4G, THEY DON’T HAVE ANYTHING LIKE THE INTERCONNECTEDNESS OF EVERYTHING TO EVERYTHING ELSE. MARIA: SO CHINA WE KNOW IS A COMPETITOR TO THE UNITED STATES, WANTS TO BE THE SUPER POWER OF THE WORLD, NOT ONLY ECONOMIC BUT MILITARILY, WHAT ARE SOME OF THE THINGS THAT CHINA COULD DO IF HAUWEI IS EMBEDDED IN — IN OUR INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE UNITED STATES?>>THAT’S A VERY GOOD QUESTION, WELL, FIRST OF ALL, YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT MIGHT BE EMBEDDED IN THESE LITTLE TINNY CHIPS, VERY SMALL SERVICES AND VERY SMALL THINGS WITHIN THEM CAN DO A LOT OF DAMAGE AND NOBODY KNOWS THE DESIGN BETTER THAN THE PERSON WHO BUILT IT, SO YOU CAN HAVE CONSULTANTS LOOK AT IT AND THEY’LL BE VERY CAREFUL, BUT THEY DON’T KNOW IT AS WELL AS THE ONE WHO BUILT IT. THAT’S NUMBER 1. AND NUMBER 2 THERE’S CONSTANT MAINTENANCE AND MAINTENANCE THERE’S POTENTIAL OF SOMETHING BEING ADDED OR ON EXTRACTED — SUBTRACTED. AND NUMBER 3 UPGRADES, YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT’S EMBEDDED IN IT, THERE’S RISK AND ONGOING RISK ALL WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO MEASURE AND THE ONLY WAY YOU REALLY KNOW WHETHER A SIDE DOOR HAS BEEN PUT IN IS WHEN THEY DECIDE TO OPEN IT AND THEN IT’S TOO LATE. MARIA: WE KNOW THAT THERE WAS A SIDE DOOR, BACK DOOR, WHATEVER YOU WANT TO CALL IT IN AFRICA, WE SAW A SITUATION — THE AFRICAN GOVERNORS NOTICED IT AND RAISED THEIR HAND AND TOLD HAUWEI AND HAUWEI CHANGED IT. THEY DIDN’T KNOW IT UNTIL THEY KNEW IT.>>WELL, THAT’S THE PROBLEM, YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT YOU DON’T KNOW UNTIL IT’S TOO LATE. THAT’S THE BIG CONCERN THE PRESIDENT HAS, WE CAN’T AFFORD TO TAKE A RISK WHEN WE GET TO THE INTERNET OF THINGS BECAUSE LITERALLY EVERYTHING WILL BE INTERCONNECTED, THAT GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR EVERYTHING BEING SHUT DOWN. MARIA: I FEEL LIKE FOR SO MANY YEARS AMERICAN COMPANIES AND CEO’S WERE SO INTERESTED IN GETTING THEIR PRODUCTS IN FRONT OF 1.4 BILLION PEOPLE IN CHINA THAT THEY FORGOT ABOUT PROTECTING THE PRODUCT.>>I THINK THERE’S SOME TRUTH TO THAT, ONE OF THE PROBLEMS WITH AMERICAN PUBLIC COMPANIES IS THEY LIVE IN A LIFE DENOMINATED BY 3-MONTH PERIODS, QUARTERLY EARNINGS. MARIA: YEAH.>>THEREFORE TOO MUCH PRESSURE ON THEM TO MAKE QUARTERLY EARNINGS PERHAPS OF THE EXPENSE OF LOAN TERM RESULTS. MARIA: DO YOU THINK THE COMPANIES WANTING TO SELL TO HAUWEI KNOWS THOSE RISK?>>NOBODY WANTS TO LOSE A BIG CUSTOMER. THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE CLEAR THAT HE DOESN’T WANT TO MAKE PUBLIC THE NATURE OH AND TIMING OF PRESIDENTS WITH PRESIDENT XI, THEY TALK ABOUT — THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TALK ABOUT IF HE WANTS TO MAKE AN ANNOUNCEMENT OF A PARTICULAR CALL, HE WILL. MARIA: AND THE PRESIDENT SAID THAT HE’S STILL TALKING WITH CHINA BUT HE’S NOT READY TO MAKE A DEAL WHA THE DOWNSIDE FRISK WE DON’T MAKE A DEAL? YOU YOURSELF, YOUR COLLEAGUES HAVE MADE A STRONG CASE IN TERMS OF NATIONAL SECURITY RISK AROUND CHINA, NOW WE GET IT, SO IS THERE A REAL DOWNSIDE RISK IF THE PRESIDENT DOESN’T DO A DEAL WITH CHINA, HOW ARE YOU GOING TO GET THEM TO AGREE TO SOME OF THE BIG-TICKET ITEMS THAT WE KNOW IS CULTURAL LIKE THEFT OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY?>>WELL, FIRST OF ALL, LITTLE POINT OF MAKING A DEAL IF YOU AREN’T SURE IT CAN’T BE ENFORCE, ONE THING TO MAKE THE TERMS OF A DEAL, IT’S QUITE ANOTHER THING AND MAYBE EVEN MORE IMPORTANT TO MAKE SURE IT’S VERIFIABLE AND ENFORCEABLE, THOSE ARE KEY ELEMENTS, THE DEAL ITSELF VARIABILITY AND ENFORCEABILITY. WE NEED ALL 3.>>WE KEEP SEEING CHINA BREAK PROMISES, THEY BREAK PROMISES IN WTO, THEY BREAK PROMISES TO HONG KONG, LOOK AT THE 2 MILLION PEOPLE IN THE STREETS RIGHT NOW.>>RIGHT. MARIA: IS THAT A BIG TOPIC OF CONVERSATION AROUND YOUR TRADE DEALINGS, WHAT’S HAPPENING IN HONG KONG?>>WELL, THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE CLEAR HE WOULD LIKE PEACEFUL RESOLUTION IN HONG KONG, HE HOPES THERE’S A RESOLUTION THAT WOULD SUIT ALL OF THE PARTIES BUT IT’S VERY DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE THEM USING FORCE, THE CHINESE USING FORCE AGAINST PEACEFUL DEMONSTRATORS. MARIA: WE HAD A STATEMENT FROM THE EU IN CANADA ABOUT HONG KONG, WELL, THE PRESIDENT TWEETED ABOUT IT.>>I THINK A TWEET IS A POWERFUL SYMBOL. MARIA: SURE IS. THE PRESIDENT SPOKE ABOUT MEETING WITH APPLE TIM COOK AND COOK MADE THE POINT THAT TARIFFS WILL HURT U.S. BUSINESS, WATCH THIS.>>TIM WAS TALKING TO ME ABOUT TARIFFS, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HE MADE A GOOD CASE THAT SAMSUNG IS THE NUMBER ONE COMPETITOR AND SAMSUNG IS NOT PAYING TARIFFS BECAUSE THEY ARE BASED IN SOUTH KOREA AND IT’S TOUGH FOR APPLE TO PAY TARIFFS IF THEY ARE COMPETING WITH A VERY GOOD COMPANY THAT’S NOT. I SAID HOW GOOD A COMPETITOR, HE SAID THEY ARE A VERY GOOD COMPETITOR. SO SAMSUNG IS NOT PAYING TARIFFS BECAUSE THEY ARE BASED IN A DIFFERENT LOCATION, MOSTLY SOUTH KOREA BUT THEY ARE BASED IN SOUTH KOREA AND I THOUGHT HE MADE A VERY COMPELLING ARGUMENT, SO I’M THINKING ABOUT IT. MARIA: HE’S THINKING ABOUT IT.>>WELL, THAT’S TRUE, IT’S A VERY COMPLEX SITUATION. MARIA: NOTHING NEW. WE KNEW THAT ANYBODY ELSE NOT IN CHINA WILL NOT PAY THE TARIFFS.>>THAT’S TRUE, NOT QUITE AS COMPETITIVE AS THE COMPETITION BETWEEN SAMSUNG AND APPLE. MARIA: OKAY.>>THOSE ARE REALLY THE FUTURE, TECHNOLOGY IS THE FUTURE BOTH FOR US, FOR SOUTH KOREA, FOR EVERYBODY. MARIA: ONCE THAT 10% TARIFF GOES INTO PLACE, DO YOU EXPECT THAT THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO TAKE A HIT?>>WELL, TARIFFS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE NOT BEEN PAID FOR BY THE CONSUMERS, FOR ONE THING YOU NOTICED AGAINST THE BREAD BASKET OF OTHER CURRENCIES, THE DOLLAR IS UP SOMETHING LIKE 11%, SO A 10% TARIFF GETS INTO THAT. SECOND, IT’S BEEN SEEN THAT A LOT OF THE CHINESE VENDORS ABSORBED ALL OR PART OF THE HIT THEMSELVES, THEN THERE’S PROBABLY MORE GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY GOING INTO IT TOO. IMPORT PRICES, IN FACT, HAVE BEEN DOWN FROM A YEAR AGO AND AS YOU KNOW THERE’S VERY LITTLE INFLATION IN THE CONSUMER ECONOMY, SO THUS FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY REAL BASIS FOR SAYING THE TARIFFS HAVE HURT THE CONSUMER. MARIA: INTERESTING BECAUSE WITH YOUR ECONOMIC POLICIES HAVING MOVED THE NEEDLE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, YOU’VE SEEN LOTS OF ASSETS COMING TO AMERICA AND THAT’S THE BAD SIGN TOO, THAT’S THE STRENGTH OF THE DOLLAR, PROLONGED DOLLAR RALLY PRESSURING U.S. CORPORATE EARNINGS HITTING COMMODITY PRICES AND THREAT ON THE DEEPEN THE SELLOFF IN EMERGING MARKETS, HOW WORRIED ARE YOU ABOUT THE DOLLAR IMPACTING THE ECONOMY?>>WE ARE UPSET ABOUT THE PUSH AND STRENGTH OF THE DOLLAR THAT’S DUE TO MONETARY POLICY BY THE FED, WE THINK THAT OUR INTEREST — INTEREST RATES ARE HIGH RELATIVE TO MANY OTHER COUNTRIES, THERE WAS AD LAST WEEK THAT BANK IN EUROPE MAKING MORTGAGE LOANS WITH NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES, PAYING BORROWERS TO BUY A HOUSE. MARIA: INCREDIBLE.>>THE U.S. IS PAYING POSITIVE INTEREST RATE, WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE PICTURE? THIS IS A WRONG PICTURE. AND OTHER COUNTRIES ARE CONTINUING TO LOWER THEIR RATES, VERY MUCH CHAIRMAN POWELL GOES FORWARD AND DOES LOWER THE RATE THIS NEXT TIME AROUND. MARIA: WHAT ABOUT — WE DON’T HAVE A LOT OF WIGGLE ROOM HERE, WE ARE AT VERY LOW LEVELS AND YOU HAVE GOT NEGATIVE RATES AS YOU JUST SAID IN EUROPE, HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THIS IN TERMS OF INDICATING A RECESSION ON THE HORIZON? DO YOU WORRY ABOUT THE ROCK-BOTTOM RATES EVEN THOUGH YOU WANT ANOTHER CUT?>>EVENTUALLY THEY’LL BE A RECESSION BUT THIS INVERSION IS NOT AS RELIABLE IN MY VIEW AS PEOPLE THINK. ANYTHING THAT TAKES 22 MONTHS TO AFFECT THE ECONOMY AND IN SOME CASES THE INVERSION HAS TAKEN THAT, THAT’S A LONG WAYS AND A LOT OF THE VARIABLES COME IN DURING 22 MONTH PERIOD, NORMALLY INVERSIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN A PERIOD OF TIGHTENING MONEY, TIGHTENING CREDIT. AVAILABILITY OF CREDIT IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM.