What’s behind the recent stock market volatility?

AMNA NAWAZ:  Today’s 800-point plunge on
Wall Street is just the most recent swerve for a stock market that had very recently
been hitting record highs. Jeffrey Brown reports that the high level
of volatility has investors large and small on edge and looking for answers. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) JEFFREY BROWN, PBS NEWSHOUR CORRESPONDENT: 
President Trump’s trade and tariff wars, major slowdowns in the economies of Germany and
China, the prospect of further actions by the Federal Reserve, and more. It may be August, but national and global
events are impacting markets and, maybe, the economy overall. Neil Irwin, senior economics correspondent
for “The New York Times,” joins me now. Nice to have you back. NEIL IRWIN, SENIOR ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT,
THE NEW YORK TIMES:  Thanks, Jeff. JEFFREY BROWN:  Big drop in the market today. You see several things going on. Let’s start with the trade and tariffs. How is that moving markets? NEIL IRWIN:  Sure. So, we’ve seen a bit of a de-escalation of
the trade wars in the last couple of days — JEFFREY BROWN:  Uh-huh. NEIL IRWIN:  — as the president has kind
of backed away from one round of tariffs that were set to go into effect. (CROSSTALK) JEFFREY BROWN:  Which should be good in a
sense, yes. NEIL IRWIN:  It should be good, but remember,
that was only partially pulling something that was only announced back two weeks ago. JEFFREY BROWN:  Yes. NEIL IRWIN: What we’re seeing is that this
trade war, it’s something bigger than just one little dial that you can twist. It’s infecting the overall economic relationship
between the world’s two largest economies. Businesses worldwide are having to adapt and
adjust, and they’re nervous about making investments and really investing in the future given that
backdrop. JEFFREY BROWN:  Do we see actual damage already
or is this about fears looking ahead? NEIL IRWIN:  So, so far, in the U.S., economic
data, it’s pretty mild. You see some evidence that the industrial
sector is slowing down. Business investment has been weak in the last
few months. But it’s not a catastrophe so far for the
U.S. economy. So far, the U.S. economy seems to be holding
up. The question is what — what’s going to happen
in the future? JEFFREY BROWN:  And when the president pulled
back yesterday on the latest tariffs or at least postponed them, was that perhaps as
seeing that it might — this time, it might affect consumers, or why — why do you think
he did that? NEIL IRWIN:  Yes, I think this was — this
round of tariffs is going to affect consumers 10 percent on basically all Chinese imports,
including toys, including iPhones, including things that people are buying in the Christmas
season. They didn’t want to do that. The thing is you can’t really go back again. Sometimes, this idea of constantly escalating
global economic warfare, once that gets in place, it’s not so much the details of any
one tariff, it’s what’s going to happen to the relationship overall, and what does that
mean for the future. JEFFREY BROWN:  All right. So, there’s that on the one hand, but you’re
seeing something that’s part of — this is part of something much bigger, deeper,
a slowing, a weakening, perhaps even signs of a recession. What points to that? NEIL IRWIN:  So, the biggest thing is what
happened today is called an inversion of the yield curve. So, the yield curve is interest rates on the
treasury bonds for different durations, different time periods. And what’s happening now is you’re actually
seeing lower interest rates on longer term bonds than on shorter term. All that means is investors worldwide soon
to be pricing in an expecting slower growth, weaker growth, lower inflation, more Federal
Reserve rate cuts. That’s a pessimistic signal we’re getting
from global bond investors. JEFFREY BROWN:  And how — where are they
seeing that? I mean, what specifically are they looking
at that’s making them feel so pessimistic? NEIL IRWIN:  It seems to me this global forces,
not just the trade wars that we’re already talked about, but a sharp slowdown in the
European economy, geopolitical tensions. You have tensions between China and Hong Kong. JEFFREY BROWN:  Yes. NEIL IRWIN:  You have a very complex situation
where the entire world economy and the world political system seems to be in this very
fragile state. So, it doesn’t take much to undermine growth. JEFFREY BROWN:  Now, the president clearly
seeing what’s going on, he put out another tweet today, another blast at the Fed chairman. He referred to him as clueless Jay Powell. What is — what is that coming from? Or what do you seeing there? NEIL IRWIN:  So, look, President Trump wants
to blame the Fed for everything bad that’s happening in the world markets and the economy. And it is true — look, the Fed raised interest
rates four times last year. They’ve already taken back one of those. They seem to believe that — you know, there’s
some evidence that they overdid it last year and maybe raised rates too much, given where
the global economy is. But you can’t — you know, you can’t hold
the Trump administration blameless. They keep kind of throwing bombs in the different
elements of the global trading system in ways that are disruptive. And you talk to CEOs. You look at corporate earnings reports. There’s clear evidence that the Trump administration
has part of the responsibility. JEFFREY BROWN:  I mean, we’ve talked about
this before and over the years many times, the uncertainty unsettles markets, right? NEIL IRWIN:  Yes, if you’re a CEO, you’re
trying to decide whether to invest, whether to hire people, whether to build a factory. You look around — you don’t know what the
world economy is going to look at in a year because there’s this kind of chaos that
emanates from, not just Washington, from other world capitals as well. That’s a very difficult setting in which
to do business. And what’s happening in markets is reflecting
that more and more. JEFFREY BROWN:  It is still true, though,
that some numbers look OK, or even good, right? Job market is still OK. Wages are up. So, is everybody sort of parsing all these
numbers, huh? NEIL IRWIN:  Yes. Look, so far, the U.S. economy has been the
calm in the storm. The U.S. economy has been basically sound
even with all this — all this turmoil overseas. The problem is what’s being — what we’re
seeing in markets this month seems to be suggesting that could change. And it doesn’t have to be a recession. We can still avoid a recession, but the risk
of one is a lot higher than it was a month ago. JEFFREY BROWN:  And just briefly before we
go, what is it about August? Something about — everybody is supposed to
be relaxing, but a lot of things happen in the economy and market — markets. NEIL IRWIN:  We keep seeing this — happened
in 2011, happened in 2007, happened in 1998. You know, one explanation, it seems to be
that a bunch of traders are on vacation, so there’s liquidity in markets. You get wilder swings. It may be just a coincidence but I think we’ve
seen this pattern before where August is the month where global markets seem to melt down. JEFFREY BROWN:  All right. Neil Irwin of the “New York Times” — thank
you very much. NEIL IRWIN:  Thanks, Jeff.

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